POWELL SPEECH FAILS TO SWAY JORDANIANS' MINDS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000858

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JO
SUBJECT: POWELL SPEECH FAILS TO SWAY JORDANIANS' MINDS ON
IRAQ

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DOUGLAS SILLIMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) A quick sampling of Jordanian reaction to Secretary
Powell,s February 5
presentation to the UNSC -- including from the Prime Minister
-- indicates that
it changed few peoples' minds on the issues of Iraq,s
failure to comply with
Resolution 1441, presence of WMD programs, or ties to
Al-Qaeda. Many viewed
the speech as a "declaration of war" against Iraq that
demonstrated
-- regardless of Iraq,s efforts to comply with Resolution
1441 -- the U.S.'s
determination to go to war. END SUMMARY

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SECRETARY'S EVIDENCE MALIGNED

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2. (C) Many of our contacts told us they believed the
evidence presented by
Secretary Powell was "mere fabrication." Oraib Rantawi, with

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the Al-Quds
Political Research Center, wondered about the authenticity of
the photos
presented. Faleh Taweel, former Jordanian Ambassador to
Iraq, said that the
intercepts of conversations of Iraqi officials were not
authentic: Iraqi
officials would never speak to higher officials as they had
on tape, he
claimed. Many described the evidence as "computer animation"
and
"Hollywoodized" evidence.

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JORDANIANS BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
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3. (C) That many Jordanians, minds were not changed by
Secretary Powell,s

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speech does not mean they favor Saddam. Most agreed that
Saddam,s removal
would be a positive for the region as a whole and in the long
term for Jordan
as well. However, the overall consensus was that war should
be avoided at all
costs. Osama Malkawi, an attorney and ex parliamentarian,
commented that a war
against Iraq will be humiliating to the Arab world,
particularly considering
that the U.S. applies a "double standard" when enforcing UN
resolutions on Iraq
and Israel. Malkawi wished the United States would devote
the same effort and
intensity to solving the Palestinian problem as it has the
Iraq issue.
Further, Malkawi ventured to say how differently the United
States has dealt
with North Korea on the similar issue of WMD.

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PM PRAISES SECRETARY, BUT IS STILL SKEPTICAL
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4. (S) Prime Minister Ali Abul Ragheb told the Ambassador
and PolCouns
February 6 that the Secretary's presentation "shows that
there are some doubts"
about Iraq's cooperation with UN inspectors and WMD programs,
but provided "no
solid proof." He commented that the Secretary "has major
credibility" in the
Arab world and had given "a good performance," but "didn't
show strong facts."
He concluded that UN inspectors should be given more time to
do their job,
commenting that, according to a CNN report he had seen "most
of the members of
the Security Council" seem to agree with that assessment.
The Ambassador
pushed back, outlining ref points on the Secretary's
presentation and its
evidence of lack of Iraqi cooperation, proof of Iraq's
possession of CBW, and
the regime's links to Al-Qaeda.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Many of post,s Jordanian contacts felt that the
Secretary's speech was geared

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more towards the American audience than to the outside world.
They viewed his
speech as an attempt to consolidate American public opinion
and increase
support for the war. As for swaying Arab public opinion,
the consensus
view here is that the Secretary's speech had only a limited
impact in Jordan.

GNEHM
GNEHM