RESUMPTION OF JORDANIAN BAGHDAD FLIGHTS DELAYED

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 008299

SIPDIS

CPA FOR TRENT/WILLIS/WAYNE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2008
TAGS: EAIR PREL PINR IZ JO
SUBJECT: RESUMPTION OF JORDANIAN BAGHDAD FLIGHTS DELAYED

REF: AMMAN 7647

Classified By: DCM David Hale, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Almost four weeks after suspending daily
Amman-Baghdad passenger flights following a November 22
MANPADS strike on a DHL cargo aircraft, Royal Jordanian (RJ)
has informed us that they are hoping to resume flights
December 19, pending confirmation of insurance coverage and
approval of the Jordanian Government. Royal Jordanian had
been planning to resume the service with an Iraqi-owned
Boeing 737 wet-leased to RJ, but is now looking at continuing
to work with DeHavilland Dash 8 turboprops owned by its Royal
Wings subsidiary. GOJ approval apparently requires further
internal assessment of threat information that was developed
by a Jordanian intelligence agency, which seems unlikely by
December 19. End Summary.


2. (C) RJ tells us that it is prepared to resume Royal Wings
passenger flights to and from Baghdad as soon as Friday,
December 19, pending final resolution of insurance issues and
approval of the government of Jordan. While RJ officials
believe the insurance issues will be resolved quickly, GOJ
approval -- which has been withheld due to Jordanian concerns
over the threat to Jordanian aviation in Iraq --has not been
forthcoming as of Thursday, December 18. According to RJ CEO
Samer Majali, the Government of Jordan believes it has
intelligence information of a specific threat to the Royal
Wings flight. The government is currently analyzing the
information.


3. (C) Majali also tells us that at the request of CPA
officials, the airline has dropped a plan to operate a 737
owned by the Jordan-based Iraqi Khawam family that would be
leased to RJ but operated under an Iraqi flag (see reftel).
This means that when and if flights resume, it will be with a
42-seat DASH-8 turboprop owned by Royal Wings, an RJ
subsidiary. Flights should continue to fly out of Amman's
Marka airport.


4. (C) Resumption of flights has been delayed by a series
of obstacles. The initial suspension of flights was
announced November 23, pending a security assessment of the
perimeter of Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) following
the attack on a DHL cargo jet. When the assessment found
that the nature of the attack was more worrying than had
initially been thought, flights were further suspended while
the U.S. military upgraded its presence around BIAP.
Negotiations with insurers caused a further delay, followed
by a dispute with the lessor of the DASH-8 that RJ was
flying. Once these issues had been resolved, RJ received the
request from GOJ not to fly for security reasons. Insurance
again became an issue after a C-17 was hit by a SAM outside
of BIAP on December 10.


5. (C) COMMENT: Both RJ's CEO Samer Majali and Ghassan
Ali, RJ's Vice President and chief negotiator, were decidedly
unenthusiastic about the prospect of working with the
Khawams, which they had agreed to do only under pressure from
Iraqi Transportation Minister Boulos. RJ apparently feared
that once flights were renewed using a Khawam airplane, the
Khawams would then move to muscle RJ off the route.
Jordanian intelligence agencies are continuing to assess the
information developed about a threat to the flight. It is
not clear how long this process (which is also being
discussed in intelligence channels) will take, but resumption
of information on December 19 seems highly unlikely.
GNEHM