JORDANIAN OPPOSITION TO GENEVA ACCORD GEARS UP IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 008122

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KISL IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN OPPOSITION TO GENEVA ACCORD GEARS UP IN
FACE OF VOCAL GOJ SUPPORT

REF: AMMAN 07232

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b and d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Breaking weeks of relative silence on the issue,
Jordanian officials, led by King Abdullah, are lauding the
unofficial Geneva Accord as a means to enhance dialogue and
complement efforts to end the current peace process stalemate
-- while reiterating their support for the roadmap. The
official praise contrasts with skeptics who fear the Geneva
Accord will eventually join the growing pile of unimplemented
peace initiatives, and the opposition's vehement rejection,
which focuses on the plan's perceived abandonment of the
Palestinians' "right of return." The Professional
Associations' Council reportedly has launched a signature
campaign against the initiative, but rumored protests in
Amman have not materialized. The lively debate in Jordan
about the accord underscores the importance of maintaining
forward momentum long enough to convince publics on both
sides -- again -- that compromise is in everyone's interest.
End Summary.

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GOJ VIEW ON GENEVA ACCORD EVOLVES
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2. (C) Jordanian officials, publicly restrained about the
effort after the Geneva Accord was first announced in Jordan
on October 13 (see ref),are now heaping praise on the
effort. "It's a very fascinating document.... what we're
talking about in this document is Taba-plus, with the blanks
built in," King Abdullah told CNN during his recent
Washington visit. "I think that any initiative that
complements the peace process, that tries to move the process
forward -- and the principles in the Geneva Accord are
actually in line with the road map -- I think it can only be
a positive thing."


3. (U) GOJ spokesperson Asma Khader described the plan as
an attempt to put the peace process back on track, saying
Jordan backs all efforts aimed at helping the Palestinian
people achieve their rights and establishing peace in the
Middle East. At the same time she emphasized Jordan's
support for the Palestinian refugees' right of return.

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OPPOSITION LAUNCHES INVECTIVE, AND SIGNATURE CAMPAIGN
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4. (U) Despite the unofficial nature of the accord, the
opposition is mobilizing against it. On December 4, the
14-member Professional Associations' Council issued a
statement condemning the initiative, rejecting "all treaties
that compromise Palestinians' right of repatriation." The
statement called on the Arab countries (read: especially
Jordan) to cut diplomatic ties with Israel, saying armed
resistance Is the only viable option for Palestinians. The
associations have launched a signature collection campaign to
express Jordan's rejection of the initiative, and agreed to
organize a public event for that purpose. (Note:
Demonstrations against the initiative at the U.S. Embassy and
UN building in Amman reported in the press this week did not
materialize, but Post's security contacts are aware of the
rumors. End note.)


5. (U) The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) issued a similar
statement the same day. "Anyone who signs off a grain of
sand from Palestine to the Jews and usurpers is an enemy of
God and the Prophet Mohammad and is damned in this life and
hereafter." It called for those who authored and signed the
document to be tried in public and for Arabs to join in
condemning the initiative.


6. (U) During an interview with the Arabic-language al-Ra'i
newspaper a week later, MB leader Abd al-Majid Dhunaybat
said: "We say that such documents will be torn asunder by the
defiance of the Palestinian people and its absolute rejection
of concessions, its commitment to its claim in Palestine, and
the firmly-established right of return that no one will be
able to concede." Referring to the perceived Israeli goal to
"transfer" the Palestinian population to Jordan to ensure the
Jewish character of Israel, he added: "the resettlement plan
does still exist in the minds of some of the international
powers that serve the Jews and international Zionism. This
is what we as Jordanians and Palestinians completely reject.
The Jordanians reject it because it contains a violation of
his right and the Palestinian rejects it because it contains
a surrendering of his right to return to his homeland."

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"RIGHT OF RETURN" CENTRAL TO DEBATE ABOUT ACCORD IN JORDAN
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7. (U) In the days after the December 1 ceremony in Geneva,
Jordanian papers were filled with commentary about the
accord. Some, including Senator Faleh al-Taweel, wrote that
he expects the accord to eventually gather dust on the shelf
like so many peace initiatives that have come before.
Jordanian-Palestinian journalist 'Uraib al-Rantawi agreed,
but noted what he saw as a potential positive impact of
moving Israeli public opinion against Sharon. Mohammad
Ka'wash wrote in al-Arab al-Yawm newspaper that despite its
unofficial nature, the accord could help bolster the peace
camp in Israel.


8. (U) There has been much focus on the provisions in the
accord dealing with the Palestinians' "right to return" to
their families' original homes in historic Palestine. East
Bank Christian journalist Nahed Hattar sounded Jordanian
nationalist alarms, writing that if such an accord emerges as
the basis for a final agreement, then the Jordanian
government would be "forced" to nationalize all Palestinians
who reside in Jordan thus leading to great (negative) change
in the demographic and political structure in Jordan.


9. (U) Several commentators, including Al-Arab al-Yawm
editor in chief Taher al-Udwan, interpreted the accord's
attempt to address the "right of return" dilemma as a
"cancellation" of the Palestinians right to return to
historic Palestine that should be rejected. Hasan Abu Nimah,
writing in the English-language Jordan Times, deplored the
accord, saying it did more to satisfy the international
community that deal with the true needs of the Israeli and
Palestinian people.


10. (C) Palestinians in Jordan also disagree whether the
Palestinian diaspora -- especially in Jordan -- should have a
strong voice in determining the final solution to the
conflict. Former royal court adviser Adnan Abu Odeh believes
that Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and not
Palestinians outside, should have the final word in any
agreement. There is no comparison, he told poloff, between
the hardships of life under occupation and those faced by
displaced refugees in neighboring states.


11. (C) PLO refugee affairs representative in Jordan
Mohammed Abu Bakr disagrees, telling refcoord that no
agreement on final status issues -- especially the right of
return -- will hold unless the Palestinian diaspora signs on.
He believes the Geneva Accord is a good vehicle for ordinary
Palestinians to start thinking realistically about right of
return issues and for the PLO to start convincing refugees
that giving up the right of return is in their best interest.
He readily admitted he was way ahead of Palestinian official
and public thinking on this point. During the last year, Abu
Bakr has briefed refcoord on the PLO Refugee Affairs
Department's quiet efforts to seek funding for a
diaspora-wide public opinion survey that could be used as the
basis for an public dialogue on right of return issues.
While the PLO's fundraising efforts so far have unsuccessful,
there are hints the Swiss Government may fund the survey as
part of the June 2004 UNRWA Conference in Geneva (details
reported septel).

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COMMENT
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12. (C) Given Jordan's large refugee population, no other
final status issue -- not even Jerusalem or final borders of
the would-be Palestinian state -- raises Jordanian hackles
more than the "right of return." Hard-liners will continue
to argue that any compromise on the Palestinians' "right of
return" will facilitate Israel's ultimate plan of
"transferring" the Palestinian population to Jordan -- a
hotbutton issue particularly among Jordan's East Bank
community sensitive to the demographic realities of Jordan's
majority Palestinian population. The lively debate about the
Geneva Accord demonstrates Jordanians' deep interest in
moving the process forward, but also the skepticism and
frustration about unfulfilled agreements. It also
underscores the fact that much hard work will have to be done
to convince both populations -- again -- that a negotiated
settlement is the only option.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman or access the site
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page.
GNEHM