ISLAMIC PARTY THE KING-MAKER IN JORDAN'S SPEAKER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007909

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL JO KTER
SUBJECT: ISLAMIC PARTY THE KING-MAKER IN JORDAN'S SPEAKER
RACE

REF: AMMAN 07874

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Hale for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Saad Hayel Srour, former Speaker of the Lower House
of Parliament, told PolCouns and PolOff that he withdrew from
the Speaker race after the Islamic Action Front made too many
demands in exchange for backing his candidacy. He expects
only limited progress in approving the backlog of provisional
laws and warned of hostile reaction to proposed government
price hikes on basic commodities. Srour cautioned that PM
Fayez was making "too many promises" in his dialogue with the
opposition and questioned whether the government was fully
committed to its calls for political development. Current
Speaker Abdul Hadi Majali denied making concessions to the
IAF to win its support in the contest for Speaker. End
Summary.

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A FULL PLATE
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2. (C) PolCouns and PolOff met December 3 with Saad Hayel
Srour (East Banker, North Badia) to discuss the agenda for
the regular session of Parliament and the recent election of
Abdul Hadi Majali as Lower House Speaker (see ref). Srour
predicted that the agenda would be dominated by: 1) the vote
of confidence for Prime Minister Fayez's government; 2)
debate on the government's proposed 2.67 billion Jordanian
Dinar budget; and 3) consideration of the more than 200
remaining provisional laws. Srour said that the budget could
prove contentious and he doubted whether Parliament would
make significant headway in clearing the backlog of
provisional laws in the time available.

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PROMISES, PROMISES
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3. (C) Srour described PM Fayez as a very "nice" person and
confirmed that Fayez had engaged in unprecedented dialogue
with MPs and civil society. He warned, however, that Fayez
was "making too many promises" in the dialogue and could be
raising unrealistically high expectations for his government.
If MPs and other Jordanians did not see concrete steps taken
in the next 3-4 months to fulfill the promises and implement
the government's stated goals, they could sour on Fayez and
his ministers. Srour noted that MPs reacted very negatively
when Fayez had broached the subject of price increases,
foreshadowing a public outcry against the government if it
tried to raise prices for gasoline and staple goods.


4. (C) Srour also questioned whether the government was
fully committed to its call for political development. He
remarked that real, meaningful democratic change was
achievable, but doubted whether the government had the "will
and determination" to take more than half-measures or
cosmetic steps. In order to push through any significant
reforms, political or otherwise, Srour said that the new
Cabinet would have to be united and speak with one voice, in
contrast to previous Cabinet ministers who contradicted each
other publicly and in front of Parliament.

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IAF: TOO BIG FOR ITS BRITCHES
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5. (C) Srour, a five-time Speaker, was chosen to lead the
Lower House during Parliament's "extraordinary session"
earlier this year and had declared his intention to continue
in this role before withdrawing from the Speaker race on
November 24. According to Srour, there was keen competition
between parliamentary blocs to claim the position of Speaker
and none of the major blocs, except for the Islamic Action
Front (IAF),was willing to throw its lot behind the
candidate of another bloc prior to voting. Therefore,
although the IAF contains only 17 MPs (plus 3 "independents"
who consistently vote with the IAF),it played the deciding
role in the Speaker's race, and reached a deal to back
Majali. Once Majali had secured the IAF votes in addition to
those of his own National Action Front bloc, he became the
undisputed front-runner, prompting Srour and other candidates
for Speaker to drop out of the competition.


6. (C) Although the IAF had supported Srour for Speaker
during Parliament's extraordinary session, Srour said that he
was unable to reach an agreement with the bloc to back him
this time around. Srour claimed that the IAF had developed
an inflated opinion of its importance in Parliament and,
accordingly, had become much more demanding during his
negotiations with them. Srour mentioned in particular that
the IAF wanted him to guarantee the position of "first deputy
speaker" (the number two leadership position in the Lower
House) for one of its members, as well as a commitment from
him to work to achieve return of the three HAMAS leaders
deported in 1999. With a sense of indignation, Srour stated,
"I was not going to let (deported HAMAS leader) Khalid Mishal
control the Speaker election."


7. (C) Srour opined that Majali had likely made "too many
concessions" to secure the IAF's backing on issues over which
he has little influence. Consequently, this could come back
to haunt him in the future. He also remarked that several
IAF members had told him in confidence that they were
disheartened by the bloc's decision to support Majali given
Majali's long and close association with Jordanian security
forces (see ref) and repression of the IAF. Srour said that
his negotiations with the IAF over the Speaker race were
conducted through IAF MP Azzam Al-Hunedi (West Banker, Amman
- 1st District) with IAF Secretary General Hamzah Mansur "on
the sidelines."
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BACKROOM DEAL?
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8. (C) Many in Amman share Srour's belief that Majali caved
in to IAF pressure on political matters to gain the bloc's
support for his bid for Speaker. In a press interview
published December 4, Majali denied these allegations,
stating that his talks with the IAF never touched on
sensitive political issues, but focused on subjects of common
interest such as greater public freedoms, political
development, and a more assertive Parliament. "We agreed to
jointly study pending legislation and to a adopt a position
or consensus on these laws before they are presented to
Parliament, and to coordinate with each other over (the
composition) of House committees," stated Majali.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Widely considered the most organized and cohesive of
the parliamentary blocs, the IAF, in its negotiations with
Srour and Majali over the Speaker contest, is learning to act
like a real political party. Although other blocs may have
more members, the IAF's internal discipline and political
cunning, especially in knowing how to exploit differences
between other blocs, give it more importance than its numbers
may suggest.


10. (C) Notwithstanding any promises Majali may have made to
the IAF on security or foreign policy, these issues will
remain firmly within the control of King Abdullah and the
government. Majali and Parliament will have only marginal
impact.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman or access the site
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page.
HALE