JORDANIAN ELITE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT NEW GOVERNMENT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007804

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2013
TAGS: PGOV SOCI KDEM JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN ELITE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT NEW GOVERNMENT,
REFORM; THE STREET, MUCH LESS SO

REF: AMMAN 7507

Classified By: CDA David M. Hale for reasons 1.5 (b) (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) A recent opinion poll showed that, despite falling
confidence in government on the part of "ordinary" citizens,
"opinion leaders" have higher hopes for the success of the
new government's reform agenda. Embassy sources split along
similar lines, with members of the well-educated elite more
upbeat about reform than more street-wise Jordanians. One
reason for this dichotomy may be the extensive campaign of
personal contacts PM Fayez has undertaken with politicians,
MPs, and opposition elements in the elite since taking
office. END SUMMARY.

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AND THE POLL SAYS . . .
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2. (U) The Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at Jordan
University released a public opinion poll November 10
regarding public expectations for the new government. This
was the latest in a series of CSS polls conducted as
successive governments are sworn in to gauge popular
expectations of government performance. The poll showed a
continuation of a trend of slipping confidence in government
among "ordinary" Jordanians. Interestingly, however, the
poll showed that "opinion leaders" were less pessimistic --
or even optimistic -- on the government's ability to fight
the country's economic woes. Opinion leaders -- senior
officials, journalists and writers, and leaders in
universities, political parties and professional associations
-- were also more optimistic that the new government would
successfully tackle King Abdullah's political reform agenda.
Faris Breizat, coordinator of the CSS Public Opinion Unit,
stated that this was "the first time that opinion leaders
appear to be less pessimistic than the national sample on
major issues."


3. (U) On the economic front, 26 percent of the national
sample believed the government would be successful in
fighting poverty, while the corresponding figure among
opinion leaders was 35 percent. 41 percent of the national
sample believed that the government would succeed in reducing
corruption, while 48 percent of opinion leaders held this
view. With respect to political reform, 49 percent of the
general public expressed optimism for progress on political
development and a modern political parties law, compared to
56 percent of opinion leaders.


4. (U) Both the national sample and opinion leaders were
considerably more optimistic about the government's
capability to achieve its foreign policy goals (an
unprecedented 68 percent among the general public and 75
percent among opinion leaders) and to empower women in the
political and social arena (66 percent and 71 percent,
respectively, among the national sample and opinion leaders).


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WHY THE DIFFERENCE?
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5. (U) According to Breizat, the greater enthusiasm among
opinion-makers could be because of "the more than 400
telephone calls and personal contacts that the Premier made
to public opinion leaders and representatives of political
parties, social, economic and political institutions" after
being installed (see ref). With respect to confidence levels
for certain issues being notably higher than others, Breizat
attributed the difference to King Abdullah. "On issues in
which His Majesty is known to get personally involved, such
as foreign policy and foreign investment, expectations of
success are very high," commented Breizat.

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A VIEW FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND COURT
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6. (SBU) In a series of courtesy calls on the new ministers,
the Ambassador found an unusually high level of enthusiasm,
feeling of empowerment, and certainty of the King's desire to
see political and economic reform move forward.


7. (C) Hussein Adwan, Director of the Office of Crown Prince
Hamzeh, pointed out the poll results to PolCouns and said
that he agreed wholeheartedly with them. Adwan noted that
elite Jordanians had high expectations for the new government
and were upbeat about prospects for the future. This was
particularly true among the younger generation of Jordanian
elites. According to Adwan, Jordan was the only Arab country
that was making a real generational change in its leadership,
as reflected in the comparative youth of the new ministers.


8. (C) In contrast to Jordanian leaders, Adwan said most in
the Palace feel Jordanians on the street have much lower
expectations for the new government and are not optimistic
about the future. Adwan, echoing a frequently heard
observation on Amman's salon circuit, described PM Faisal
al-Fayez as a "nice" person and a capable mediator, but was
not sure he had the strong personality required to push
through difficult political and social reforms. He would
need to use his close ties to the King to succeed as prime
minister. Another Palace insider who had shared an office
with Fayez for eight years said Fayez had not displayed any
"flashes of brilliance" during their time together and was
ignorant of economics and budgeting, but that he was
agreeable and professional in his conduct.

A FEW DISSENTING VOICES
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9. (C) Embassy soundings outside the west Amman elite tend
to support the results of the CSS poll. An informal survey
of FSN family and friends showed little notice or attention
given to the new government, much less a conviction that a
change in government ministers would have a concrete impact
on their lives. Embassy sources indicate that ordinary
Jordanians are, in general, not enthusiastic about the new
government, see it as no different than previous governments,
and dismiss its promises of reform as tired rehashes of
previous unfulfilled pledges.


10. (C) We also heard some dissenting voices from the elite,
especially among jilted former ministers and statesmen from
the older generation who believe that King Abdullah has moved
them out of positions of power and influence too soon.
Former advisor to King Hussein, Adnan Abu Odeh, for example,
commented to PolOff that the ministers' lack of experience
and "cultural context" -- particularly those young ministers
who spent a good deal of time abroad -- could hinder their
efforts to implement much needed changes in Jordan. (The
King and others would argue that it is precisely Abu Odeh's
"cultural context" -- the decades of Arab political and
economic paralysis -- which Jordan needs to escape.) He also
criticized the government's decision to postpone dealing with
the election law, which he believes politically marginalizes
the Palestinian community in Jordan.


11. (C) There are also a few young dissenters. During a
meeting with the Ambassador November 23, MP Raed Qaqish (a
Christian from Salt) expressed disappointment with the new
government and little optimism for real change. Qaqish
thought that PM Fayez had made a mistake in not consulting
with Parliament before forming the cabinet. He claimed that
the ministers were, in general, "out of touch with the
reality of the people." Young, pro-reform members of the
Parliament (like Qaqish himself, he volunteered) should have
been included in the new cabinet, but were instead being
"shut out" of government decision-making.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) The CSS poll mirrors post's sense of a gap between
the expectations of the Jordanian street and the elite
regarding the new government and its reform agenda. As is
the case with most changes here, those who believe they have
the most to gain from reform and liberalization (or simple
participation in the government) are optimistic about the new
government. Those in the elite who have been sidelined, and
poorer Jordanians who do not feel they have a real stake in
the government, are less optimistic.

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HALE