JORDANIANS LAUD PRESIDENT'S DEMOCRACY MESSAGE, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007403

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2013
TAGS: KPAL KDEM PGOV PTER IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS LAUD PRESIDENT'S DEMOCRACY MESSAGE, BUT
QUESTION U.S. CREDIBILITY

REF: AMMAN 07339

Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (b and d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Despite initial negative press reaction in Jordan
to President Bush's November 6 speech calling for democratic
reform in the Arab world, several of our contacts inside and
outside the government lauded the initiative. At the same
time, they almost universally highlighted the lack of U.S.
credibility in the region as the source of widespread popular
skepticism about the President's call for democracy. Our
contacts say that because ordinary people widely believe U.S.
policies on Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to be
unfair, the democracy message is falling on deaf ears. The
mixed reaction in Jordan to the President's speech suggests
that festering resentment about Palestine and Iraq will
continue to color -- and negatively impact -- Arab reaction
to U.S. policy initiatives in the region. End Summary.

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BUSH'S DEMOCRACY MESSAGE: BETTER LATE THAN NEVER
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2. (C) Despite initial negative press reaction to the
President's democracy speech (ref),many of our contacts
inside and outside the government a week later seem to be
digging deeper to expound on the positive elements.
University of Jordan law professor Ali Khattar said that the
President's message was a surprise, but excellent. He
lamented that it did not come 40 years ago, because hostility
about unwavering American support of undemocratic regimes is
ingrained in people's psyche and will take time to change.
That said, in his opinion, the speech reflected the first
real expression of American interest in democratizing the
Middle East.


3. (C) Journalist and former MP Hamadeh Faraneh believes
the President's speech is positive because it confirms the
U.S. intention to pursue democratization in the Middle East.
The speech lends credibility to the U.S. plan to foster
democratic liberalization, a process, he said, that has
already begun in Jordan, Morocco and certain Gulf states.

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GOJ MUM ON THE ISSUE, BUT SOME OFFER UNOFFICIAL PRAISE
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4. (C) The government has not reacted publicly to the
President's speech, but many contacts inside GOJ circles
praised the President's message. The Director of Crown
Prince Hamza's Office, Hussein Adwan, lauded the speech to
PolCouns, saying that Arab democracy needed a big push to get
moving. He said that an important adjunct to democracy in
the region would be generational change, and opined that
Jordan's new, young, and reformist government embodied the
principles the President espoused and would be the first Arab
government to implement them. Separately, the
thirty-something son of a former Justice Minister praised the
speech at a post-Iftar Ramadan evening attended by DCM, and a
lively debate ensued about the possibility of democracy in
the Arab world and the strength of King Abdullah's commitment
to reforms that would ultimate limit his powers.

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ARABS MUST SEIZE THE INITIATIVE -- NOW
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5. (U) Columnist Rami Khoury bucked the prevalent press
line to applaud the President's speech in a recent article.
He acknowledged people's skepticism: "The average Middle
Easterner finds little to applaud in American policies
through the region, so why should we suddenly embrace the
American call for democracy?" At the same time, he demanded
that Arabs abandon their passivity, calling on his brethren
to take the initiative and "respond more intelligently to
Bush's proposal. This is a debate in which we should be
intimately involved, defining the goals and means as well as
setting the terms of reference for the debate itself."


6. (C) Alluding to recent events in Saudi Arabia, Faraneh
emphasized that guaranteeing the national security of Arab
countries and successfully fighting terrorism is closely
linked to political participation. Without a political
voice, desperation among the population -- especially the
young -- will only increase and provide new recruits to
extremist groups.

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LOVE THE MESSAGE, HATE THE MESSENGER
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7. (C) In addition to the positive reactions, however, our
contacts offered equal doses of "constructive criticism"
about the speech, including attempts to explain the
widespread skepticism in the Arab world. Many say that the
negative reaction is rooted in the perception that U.S.
motives are both unclear and inconsistent. They complain
that the U.S. has supported autocracy for decades, so its
sudden embrace of Middle Eastern democracy seems suspect. To
many Arabs, the timing seems self-servingly expedient, in
view of the U.S.'s wish to secure wider support for its
policy in Iraq.


8. (C) 'Uraib al-Rintawi, head of the al-Quds Political
Research Center, opined that while the speech represents the
President's most important policy statement on the Middle
East since he took office, it was "dangerous" because it did
not mention "one word" about the importance of ending the
Israeli occupation. This would have given the speech
credibility among Arabs who crave greater political
participation.


9. (C) Khattar commented that the President seemed to pick
and choose "favorites" based on the U.S. political position
towards that country. For example, even Iran has a better
track record of political participation than Saudi Arabia or
Kuwait, the former was singled out as undemocratic. Several
contacts also reacted with incredulity to President's
judgment that Jordan's parliamentary elections were
"historic," noting that Jordan has held such elections since

1989. Khattar said the U.S. must avoid politicizing the
democracy issue if the President is to be taken seriously on
this issue.

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MESSAGE NOT REACHING EVERYONE
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10. (C) Many of our contacts admitted they had not heard or
read about the President's speech. Others acknowledged
hearing negative snippets in the news, but not paying
attention to the substance of the matter. For example, Ahmad
'Ubaydat, director of the National Center for Human Rights,
did not know of the speech, but asked for a copy in Arabic if
available.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) The positive comments from Jordanian contacts a
week after the speech were surprising given the initial
negative press reaction. Even so, it appears that ordinary
Jordanians -- if they heard about the speech at all -- are
inclined to dismiss it without a second thought. The
exercise also demonstrates, once again, that in the minds of
most Jordanians, all roads lead back to Palestine. Without
at least the perception that the United States remains
intimately engaged in the peace process, U.S. credibility in
the region will be weak, and most Jordanians will remain
skeptical of U.S. intentions in the region.


12. (U) Post could usefully employ an Arabic language
version of the speech to get the President's message to a
wider audience.

Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page.
GNEHM