PRISONER ISSUE PROVIDES MORE FODDER TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007402

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2013
TAGS: KPAL IS PTER LE JO
SUBJECT: PRISONER ISSUE PROVIDES MORE FODDER TO
ANTI-NORMALIZERS IN JORDAN

REF: A. AMMAN 07111


B. AMMAN 07268

Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (b and d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Jordan's continuing inability to secure the release
of Jordanians in Israeli custody is a source of growing
frustration for Jordanian officials and is providing
political fodder to the GOJ's critics. The Israeli DCM told
DCM that while returning four Jordanians "with blood on their
hands" would be near impossible because of legal
restrictions, a deal involving some of the remaining probably
could be worked out. He questioned why King Abdallah had not
raised the matter with Israel. The Islamic opposition has
publicly criticized the government on this issue. Public GOJ
statements suggesting an imminent release appear to have
backfired -- raising and then dashing public expectations.
Anti-normalizers, led by Islamic Action Front MPs, will
likely seize on the prisoners' fate as yet another example of
why Jordan's peace treaty with Israel is of no benefit to
Jordanians when Parliament resumes in December. End Summary.


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GOJ OPENS ITSELF UP TO CRITICISM
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2. (C) The impasse between Jordan and Israel over the fate
of more than 80 Jordanian prisoners in Israel continues to
frustrate Jordan's leaders, whose conflicting public
statements over the past two weeks have opened them up to
criticism from the political opposition. Minister of State
and Government spokesperson Asma Khader said on November 4
that Israel might release 25 Jordanian prisoners "soon,"
adding that the GOJ is "standing firm" in demanding the
release of the four Jordanians detained before 1994. In an
apparent attempt to lower expectations after Khader's upbeat
statement, Muasher addressed the issue the next day during an
interview on Jordan TV. He said that Jordan continues to
work towards securing the release of all citizens detained in
Israel, stressing that Hizballah's progress with negotiations
with the GOI -- which Hizballah has publicly claimed includes
the fate of Jordanian prisoners -- does not constitute an
embarrassment to the GOJ. Muasher's office director Ali
al-Ayed acknowledged to PolCouns the conflicting messages,
saying that Khader, despite a long conversation with ForMin
Muasher on the topic, "did not understand" what Muasher told
her.


3. (U) A week later, after a press report quoted Israeli
Ambassador Handlesman as saying Israel is considering a
request from King Abdallah for a "gesture," Khader on
November 11 confirmed that negotiations are "still ongoing."
In the interview, Handlesman said Israel's conditional
acceptance of a prisoner swap with Hizballah would not
include any Jordanians, saying there was no "linkage" between
the two. In contrast to Muasher's earlier public criticism
of Hizballah's advocacy for Jordanian prisoners (ref A),
Khader said: "We welcome any release of Jordanian prisoners,
be it through our negotiations or through the swap deal with
Hizballah," but repeated Muasher's claim that the GOJ has not
been in contact with the group on the matter.

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ISRAELI DIPLOMAT ASSESSES PRISONER STALEMATE
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4. (C) During a meeting with the DCM and PolCouns on
November 10, Israeli DCM Dany Nevo said that the four most
controversial cases -- Jordanians charged with murdering an
Israeli -- absolutely would not be released because of the
threat of lawsuits from the victim's family. He suggested
that a deal involving most of the Jordanian prisoners
probably could be worked out. Among those he thought could
be resolved, 25 are "common criminals" and another 31 are
accused of immigration violations.


5. (C) Without going into specifics, he said some of the
Jordanian prisoners in Israeli custody may not want to return
to Jordan. Moreover, he noted that Jordanian officials
probably would not want to accept many of them as well
(presumably the criminals). He expressed dismay with ForMin
Muasher's focus on the four Jordanians "with blood on their
hands."

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MORE AMMUNITION FOR THE ANTI-NORMALIZERS
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6. (U) A leading Islamic opposition newspaper, al-Sabil,
focused on the issue, reporting this week that Israel had
refused to release all of the prisoners. In a jab at the
government, the paper highlighted the GOJ's failure to secure
the prisoners' release from Israel while Hizballah was
reported to be on the verge of a deal with its sworn enemy.
Al-Sabil quoted Islamic Action Front MP and leading
anti-normalizer Ali Abu al-Sukkar (ref B): "Hizballah assured
us that it would not abandon any Jordanian prisoners whom
Israel refuses to release."

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COMMENT
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7. (C) The GOJ's public statements suggesting an imminent
release complicated an already touchy situation, raising --
and then dashing -- public expectations for a quick
resolution. It also has provided political fodder to the
opposition. We suspect -- and the MFA fears -- that IAF MPs
will seize on the issue when Parliament reconvenes in
December as yet another example of why Jordan's peace treaty
with Israel is bad for Jordanians.

Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page.
GNEHM