JORDANIANS WEARY ON THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 006276

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013
TAGS: KPAL PGOV IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WEARY ON THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF
INTIFADAH, BUT WANTS THE U.S. TO KEEP TRYING

REF: A. AMMAN 05941

B. AMMAN 06000

Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) While the third anniversary of the al-Aqsa intifadah
passed with little fanfare in Jordan, Jordanians remain
frustrated with continuing violence and lack of movement
toward a settlement. Beneath weariness, the most common
themes we hear include the need to restrain Israeli security
policies to give the Palestinian Authority a chance to
succeed, the need to deal with an admittedly difficult Yassir
Arafat, and a fear that the Israeli policies are increasing
popular support for beleaguered resistance groups, especially
HAMAS. Many worry that perceived U.S. government
preoccupation with Iraq and the U.S. election season will
lead Israel to believe it has a free hand to move against
Palestinians with impunity. Senior GOJ officials, while
agreeing that the U.S. must be the major catalyst for peace,
will continue their efforts to get both Israelis and
Palestinians to take the difficult steps necessary. Nearly
all agreed that the U.S. must do more to promote a
settlement. End Summary.

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INTIFADAH ANNIVERSARY PASSES WITH ONLY A WHIMPER
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2. (SBU) Unlike in other parts of the Middle East,
Jordanians did not mark the third anniversary of the al-Aqsa
anniversary with protests. In fact, many Jordanians seemed
not to notice the anniversary at all. Press coverage was
low-key, and showcased such radical activities as
commemorative poetry readings, "Arab activities," a movie
about the "massacre" in Janin, and an evening of song.

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GOJ WEARY, BUT WILL KEEP ON TRYING
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3. (C) In public remarks that coincided with (but did not
mark) the anniversary, Foreign Minister Muasher criticized
both Israelis and Palestinians for failing to live up to
their roadmap commitments, but did not declare the plan dead
-- yet. In an interview with London-based al-Hayat, Muasher
said that the U.S. needs a monitoring mechanism to check the
performance of the parties vis-a-vis their roadmap
obligations, and that a PA crackdown on resistance groups
"should not be a prerequisite to resumption of implementing
the roadmap." Reflecting on the third anniversary of the
beginning of the intifadah, Ali al-Ayed, Muasher's Private
Office Director, borrowed a line from King Abdallah's trip to
the U.S: "No one has done enough (to end to the violence) --
not you, not us, not Sharon, not the Palestinians." Ayed
pledged continued GOJ efforts to push both the Israelis and
Palestinians toward peace -- and to remind the USG to do its
part as well.

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U.S. MUST RESTRAIN ISRAEL
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4. (C) In contrast with the weary determination of the
government, many of our Jordanian contacts expressed greater
angst that the United States appears unable or unwilling to
rein in Israel which -- as they see it -- bears the lion's
share of responsibility for the continuing violence. They
warn that the ongoing targeted assassinations, destruction of
homes and property, strict closures, and the separation wall
will create a new set of humanitarian problems and not solve
Israel's security problems in the long run.


5. (C) Noting that more than 3,000 Palestinians and 800
Israelis have died since the start of this intifadah, Dr.
Ibrahim Badran, Director of International Relations at
Philadelphia University, told Poloff that Abu Ala'a is
capable of consolidating his power and controlling the
militant groups only if Israel reciprocates with immediate
positive gestures that show the Palestinian public his
efforts are bearing fruit. Former Prime Minister Taher
al-Masri told Poloff that Jordanians worry Sharon may take
advantage of the U.S. election season and preoccupation with
Iraq to create such terrible living conditions in the West
Bank that the number of Palestinians seeking to relocate to
Jordan could increase. (Comment: a weathered re-run of the
pre-war concern of a large-scale Israeli "transfer" of
Palestinians to Jordan. End Comment.)

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ARAFAT IS PART OF THE PROBLEM...
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6. (C) None of our contacts had any kind words for Yassir
Arafat or his leadership of the Palestinian people.
Long-time MP Abdul Karim Dughmi pronounced Arafat a "liar"
more concerned with his personal prerogatives and popularity
than Palestinian statehood. MP Mohammad Shawbkeh accused
Arafat of rampant corruption and doubted whether Arafat
really was prepared to do what is necessary to achieve the
goal of a Palestinian state.

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...BUT MUST BE PART OF THE SOLUTION
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7. (C) At the same time, most argued that Arafat must be
brought into any peace process for it to be successful. MPs
Abdallah al-Jazi and Mufleh al-Rhaimi told us that Arafat
retains broad loyalty within the PNA and among Palestinians
at home and abroad, and thus has power to thwart any
agreement. Consequently, they argued, the U.S. must deal
with Arafat. Jordanian columnist and former MP Hamadeh
Faraneh (a Fatah member) says that by ordering Arafat's
expulsion and musing about possible assassination, the
Israelis boosted Arafat's flagging popularity and pushed even
critics of Arafat, including the Jordanian government, the
Islamic Action Front, and HAMAS, to his defense. All
concluded that the U.S. should draw Arafat into a solution
and twist his arm to do what is necessary.

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ISRAELI ACTIONS FUEL SUPPORT FOR HAMAS IN JORDAN
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8. (C) Jordanians are quick to deplore HAMAS's terrorist
tactics, but many in the next breath express understanding
for them given the harsh conditions under which Palestinians
live. Many also argue that HAMAS also is an important
political and social movement that provides needed services
-- such as health care, garbage collection, and rebuilding
assistance -- that the Palestinian Authority cannot. Dr.
Badran argued that given this positive side to HAMAS, Israeli
attacks on senior HAMAS leaders perceived as "moderate" have
only rallied popular support to HAMAS's side. The Israeli
approach, which has not succeeded in stopping suicide
bombings, will only complicate Abu Ala'a's efforts to
confront and disarm the militants, he asserted.


9. (C) The sentiment permeates the recently-elected
Parliament. Following Parliament's condemnation of the EU
decision to label HAMAS a terrorist group, MPs again rallied
to HAMAS's side last week to deplore the government's
decision to freeze HAMAS's assets in Jordan (reftels).
Seventy out of 110 MPs signed a letter to the Parliament's
speaker demanding that Central Bank Governor Umaya Touqan --
who issued the freeze order -- be discharged for
"recklessness in making the account freeze decision and
harming the country's reputation." Some appeared mollified
by the government's clumsy retraction of the decision, but
others demanded that Touqan be held accountable for what they
believed was a decision made "without the prime minister or
government's knowledge." Others, such as MP Abdallah Akaileh
(Tafileh),went further, accusing Touqan of being "a tool in
American hands."

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COMMENT: JORDANIANS STILL LOOK TO THE U.S.
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10. (C) Despite the dour mood surrounding the current
situation, Dr. Badran says there are Jordanians --
particularly in his academic circles -- who wish to play a
constructive role in supporting political efforts to restart
the process. Peace activist Gen. (R) Mansour Abu Rashid of
the Amman Center for Peace and Development says his
organization continues to sponsor workshops aimed at
continuing the dialogue between Jordanians and Israelis
(although most Jordanian participants insist that their
attendance not be publicized). While Jordanians often
express disappointment with U.S. policy in the Middle East
and sadness as the intifadah enters its fourth year, most
still retain the hope that the U.S. --building on President
Bush's vision of two states living side by side in peace and
security -- can engineer movement toward a settlement.

Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page.
GNEHM