JORDAN'S RED-DEAD POSTURING--YOU'RE EITHER WITH US

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 006029

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA DAS SATTERFIELD, NEA DAS CHENEY, NEA/RA
LAWSON, NEA/ARN WILLIAMS, NEA/IPA, OES/ENV PAYNE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2008
TAGS: PREL SENV KWBG JO IS
SUBJECT: JORDAN'S RED-DEAD POSTURING--YOU'RE EITHER WITH US
. . . . OR WE'LL DO IT ALONE

REF: A) TEL AVIV 5271 B) AMMAN 5999 (NOTAL)

Classified By: CDA DAVID HALE, Reason 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Jordan,s Planning and Water Ministers,
Bassem Awadallah and Hazim El-Naser, insisted to visiting NEA
Senior Science Advisor Charles Lawson that the Red Sea - Dead
Sea Conveyance (RDC) project feasibility study must happen.
If the Israelis and Palestinians cannot put the politics of
such a project aside, "Jordan will go it alone," each
minister said separately. GOJ environment-friendly arguments
about saving the Dead Sea have been overtaken by the
desalination component of the RDC. Water is Jordan,s
biggest challenge, and the pressure is on to identify new
sources to cope with an unsustainably high birthrate and
increasing demand. The long-term solution lies in the RDC,
argued Awadallah, who was caught off balance when asked to
consider alternative water sources.


2. (C) Anxious not to lose the spotlight gained at this
summer,s extraordinary session of the WEF at the Dead Sea,
Jordan remains resolved to raise the issue at the upcoming
Dubai IFI meetings (something allegedly agreed to between
King Abdullah and WB President Wolfensohn) to encourage key
donors to fund the feasibility study. Lawson cautioned that
without Israeli and Palestinian buy-in donors will likely be
reluctant to support the RDC. Separately, Israeli MFA
Multilateral Peace Process Director Yaacov Keidar told us
that domestic political considerations in Israel were driving
Jerusalem,s reluctance to support this project; only PM
Sharon could unblock the Israeli-Palestinian political
impasse and move forward at this stage. END SUMMARY.


3. (C) Jordanian officials made their displeasure with
Israel,s perceived foot-dragging on the draft Terms of
Reference (TOR) for the Red Sea - Dead Sea Conveyance (RDC)
feasibility study known to NEA Senior Science Advisor Charles
Lawson during a series of meetings in Amman September 14-16.
Explicit in those exchanges were comments from Jordanian
Minister of Planning, Bassem Awadallah, and Minister of Water
and Irrigation, Hazim el-Naser, that "we are going to do it,"
regardless of the Palestinians and Israelis. Awadallah
related to Lawson that "the King is resolved like nothing
else" to conduct the RDC feasibility study (and ostensibly
construct the full-scale project).


4. (C) Explaining that Jordan took a risk last year in
Johannesburg, rolling out the project with the Israelis,
Awadallah said that Jordan will move forward with or without
a resolution of Palestinian-Israeli political differences.
"We can,t miss any international opportunity to promote
this," he added, looking forward to the September 23-24 World
Bank-IMF meetings in Dubai at which he expects the Bank to
gather a small group of key donors for a presentation on the
RDC. The next possible venue to champion the RDC would not
present itself until next May,s WEF at the Dead Sea,
unacceptably stalling progress on the project, Awadallah
said. (Note: Jordanian Water Minister El-Naser and Israeli
Infrastructure Minister Yosef Paritzky have discussed the
possibility of a Red-Dead session at the January WEF meeting
in Davos. End note.)


5. (C) Now that both the Palestinians and Israelis had
entrenched political positions on the draft TOR, Awadallah
felt somewhat boxed in by the World Bank,s requirement of
"letters of intent" to participate from the Israelis and
Palestinians. He bemoaned the fact that Israel had taken so
long to respond to the draft TOR and, when the comments
arrived last week, raised issues of sovereignty and political
objections that threaten to derail the project.


6. (C) Lawson confirmed Awadallah,s fears, relating the
gist of his September 8-11 meetings with Israeli officials on
the topic (Ref A) and underscoring the concern of both
Israelis and Palestinians about language in the TOR that may
be prejudicial to future final status negotiations. In an
effort to bridge the gap, Lawson told Awadallah that he had
encouraged the Israelis and Palestinians to focus only on the
technical aspects of the study. It was becoming clearer,
however, that Jordan and movement on the RDC are hostage to
Israeli and Palestinian political posturing. Further, Lawson
commented, while the Israelis and Palestinians wish to
support Jordan in its quest for additional water, neither of
them anticipates large benefits from the project itself,
making them less flexible in their willingness to abandon
their political positions.


7. (C) According to Awadallah, he had received a commitment,
in principle, from Palestinian Minister of Planning Nabil
Kassis to support Jordan on the RDC. (NOTE: This doesn,t
jibe with what we heard last week in Ramallah from Kassis,
who said that the Palestinian's riparian status, as described
in the draft TOR, was non-negotiable. (Ref A).) Awadallah
said that El-Naser,s positive meeting with Israeli Minister
of Infrastructure Paritsky in Aqaba on August 28 had led the
Jordanians to believe that they had achieved consensus on a
trilateral technical committee for the RDC. So, Awadallah
asserted, it was with disappointment and frustration that
they learned of Israeli reluctance to approve the draft TOR
as written by the World Bank.


8. (C) Lawson received a similar exasperated readout on the
RDC feasibility study from Water Minister El-Naser.
Referring to the Israeli comments on the draft TOR, the
minister said "Jordan questions Israel,s interest in the
project; we are suspicious of their intentions." While he
talked positively of the "preferred option to work together
with the Palestinians and Israelis," El-Naser confirmed that
Jordan is prepared to move ahead alone. According to
El-Naser, the King said, "if they do not want to join in, we
will do it anyway." Confirming Awadallah's hints, El-Naser
said, "We are no more environmentally conscious than the
Israelis or Palestinians; we are in need of the water" from
this project. "After 2015 we have no more new resources to
tap," he added. This was the first such admission to us by a
GOJ official--and no less the one who has spearheaded the
marketing of Red - Dead as a "Save the Dead Sea" scheme, not
just a large scale desalination project.


9. (C) El-Naser said Jordan will proceed with the RDC,
regardless of Israeli or Palestinian involvement. Explaining
that a modified version of the mega-project would involve
only desalination of Red Sea water, he claimed it could be
built for about US $700 million. (Comment: That price would
be for the construction of the conveyance itself only. The
cost of constructing the desalination facilities would be an
additional US $1-2 billion, depending on the final capacity
desired. End comment.) When asked about seeking neighboring
states, approval for conducting such a project with
significant transboundary physical and environmental
repercussions, he said that Israel does not seem to care
about the sewage it dumps into the Jordan River north of the
Dead Sea. Why should Jordan be held accountable to more
stringent standards, El-Naser asked rhetorically?


10. (C) Lawson queried El-Naser about identifying new sources
of water (other than the RDC desalination scheme) for the
country. The minister was non-responsive. He did not want
to talk about desalination options on the Gulf of Aqaba, the
water from which could be pumped to Amman through the Disi
Aquifer project pipeline. Nor was he receptive to reopening
discussions about a possible Mediterranean - Dead Sea canal,
which many hydrologists agree is more economically feasible
and less disruptive environmentally. Lawson got a similar
disinterested response from Awadallah on RDC alternatives.


11. (C) We understand from the Israeli DCM that the newly
accredited Israeli Ambassador, Yacov Hades Handlesman, got a
very direct appeal from El-Naser to support the RDC
feasibility study during this first meeting on September 15.
El-Naser did not mince words about Jordan,s frustration and
disappointment over Israel,s politicization of the TOR.
El-Naser claims he has argued with the Israelis that this is
a technical study, which can be sanitized of political
stumbling blocks if the parties so desire.


12. (C) On the margins of another Arab-Israeli multilateral
meeting, Israeli MFA Multilateral Peace Process Director
Yaacov Keidar told us domestic political considerations are
holding up more ardent Israeli support for the RDC project.
At present, it was politically untenable to enter into any
kind of agreement or activity that hints at Palestinian
sovereignty. The Israeli public would not stand for it and
no politician would put his/her name to it, despite Israel,s
unfailing desire to support Jordan as a peace partner. It
would take PM Sharon, Keidar asserted, to make this delicate
decision; he underscored the Israeli Embassy's recommendation
to El-Naser that Jordanian PM Abul Ragheb phone Sharon
directly.


13. (C) COMMENT: Without Israeli and Palestinian consensus
on the World Bank,s TOR we believe the RDC feasibility study
is ill-fated. Should Jordan proceed alone, it lays itself
open to criticism from its neighbors and the international
community, and sets itself up for charges of conducting a
biased study aimed at promoting the project,s feasibility.
Also, international donors are unlikely to provide funding
for a Jordan-only feasibility study. Both Awadallah and
El-Naser, joint architects of Jordan,s mega-project, have
the most to gain from successful implementation of the RDC
and remain its biggest advocates. Of course, with the most
personal equities invested, they also have the most to lose.
King Abdullah has bought into the scheme. However, we
question whether senior Jordanian officials have sufficiently
explored cheaper and more practical options for securing new
water resources for one of the world,s most water starved
countries.
HALE