Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03AMMAN5620
2003-09-04 13:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

PEACE PROCESS, IRAQ DOMINATE CHAFEE MEETINGS IN

Tags:  PREL KPAL IZ SY JO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005620 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2013
TAGS: PREL KPAL IZ SY JO
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS, IRAQ DOMINATE CHAFEE MEETINGS IN
JORDAN

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005620

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2013
TAGS: PREL KPAL IZ SY JO
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS, IRAQ DOMINATE CHAFEE MEETINGS IN
JORDAN

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)

--------------
SUMMARY
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1. (C) Senator Lincoln Chafee, Chairman of the Senate Foreign
Relations Subcommittee for Near Eastern and South Asian
Affairs, met with King Abdallah, Senate President Zaid
Al-Rifa'i, and several Jordanian academics and political
activists to discuss Iraq, the peace process, and Jordan's
domestic issues on September 1. The King expressed concern
that the road map is facing a difficult period given the
latest round of violence. He blamed Arafat for weakening Abu
Mazen, while Al-Rifa'i placed the blame squarely on the
Israelis. During several meetings, the Senator encountered
blunt criticism about the U.S. performance in Iraq thus far,
and heard differing views about Syria's intentions vis-a-vis
Iraq. Charge, Poloff and the Senator's aide also attended
the meetings. END SUMMARY.

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PEACE PROCESS: PESSIMISM ON FUTURE OF ROAD MAP
-------------- -


2. (C) King Abdallah told Senator Chafee he will travel to
Washington in two weeks, mainly to discuss the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the situation in Iraq. He
said he foresees a difficult road ahead, and berated Yasser
Arafat for weakening Abu Mazen and Muhammed Dahlan at a
critical juncture. He said Arafat's "militant thinking" is
weakening Abu Mazen, who has come out firmly against armed
resistance. The Senator replied that "demonizing" Arafat is
not helpful because he is still a player and we also need to
address Israeli actions, particularly settlement expansion.
The King agreed, saying that Israel, as the stronger player
in the process, needs to make more effort if they truly want
to move the process forward. However, he added that the
Quartet must reach a consensus about how and whether to deal
with Arafat, adding that the Foreign Minister currently is
consulting with the parties on this matter.


3. (C) In a separate meeting, Senate President Zaid Al-Rifa'i
told Senator Chafee that because Palestinians and Jordanians
are "one people," the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian violence in
the territories makes it difficult for Jordanians to focus on
internal issues. He said people are "facing the loss of

hope" after the failure of the peace process, and that
Jordanians are not convinced the U.S. is serious about its
commitment to the process. Al-Rifa'i emphasized that active
U.S. involvement is critical to moving the process forward, a
theme voiced by nearly every Jordanian the Senator met. He
said people initially were hopeful that the road map would be
successful, but that Israeli actions, including ongoing
settlement expansion, property confiscation, home demolition,
and assassinations of Palestinian activists, are inexcusable.
He expressed his disappointment that recent U.S. statements
seem to give Israel a green light to continue their
provocative actions. He called on the United States to work
for another ceasefire, and complained that the U.S. is not
doing enough to rein in the Israelis.


4. (C) In response to a question from Senator Chafee about
security at Jordan's border with the West Bank, Al-Rifa'i
said Jordan controls it tightly, and only allows West Bank
Palestinians to stay temporarily in Jordan. He said Jordan
does not want to play into the hands of Sharon and his
cronies who want to empty the West Bank of Palestinians as
part of their transfer policy.

-------------- --------------
IRAQ: BLUNT CRITICISM OF US POST-WAR PROGRESS THUS FAR
-------------- --------------


5. (C) On the matter of Iraq, Al-Rifa'i said Jordan supported
the war as necessary to rid Iraq of a brutal dictator, but
the situation now is a "real mess." Al-Rifa'i quipped that
it is pointless to talk about democracy when basic services,
including water, communications, and electricity, are
lacking: "If a man doesn't have feet, you don't offer him
shoes." Voicing his personal opinion, Al-Rifa'i said that
Iraq needs a strong, benevolent general at this point, not an
Iraqi governing council, which is perceived as a U.S. front
lacking credibility. However, he said that without Saddam in
the picture there is hope, as long as "our friends in
Washington will get their act together" and get Iraq moving
forward.


6. (C) Al-Rifa'i, Philadelphia University Vice President of
International Relations Ibrahim Badran and Jordan University
Center for Strategic Studies Director Mustafa Hamarneh
separately deplored the U.S. decision to dissolve the army,
police, and civil service, noting that there are experts
within those ranks that should be playing a constructive role
in rebuilding the country.

7. (C) In response to Senator Chafee's question about the
ramifications of the Najaf bombing on August 29, Al-Rifa'i
said it depends whether people are convinced that the correct
perpetrators are arrested. He expressed concern about
reports that Iraqi and Saudi Sunni Muslims may be involved,
fearing that the bombing could trigger Sunni-Shi'a violence
aimed at settling old scores. The King emphasized the
importance of positive forward movement towards stability in
Iraq despite the setbacks, and said that Jordan continued to
pursue leads to determine who carried out the attack.
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DIFFERING VIEWS OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS
--------------


8. (C) In response to questions from Senator Chafee, both the
King and Al-Rifa'i believe that Bashar al-Asad has the
potential to be an effective, progressive leader, but they
noted that the Syrian President is caught between his desire
to move Syria forward politically and economically, and the
demands of power hungry generals left over from his father's
old guard. Al-Rifa'i said U.S. threats to Syria (i.e., the
Syria Accountability Act) play into the extremists' hands and
isolate Bashar. The King said he is concerned that Bashar is
"reading the map wrong," and suggested that Syria doesn't
understand its own vulnerabilities in the region. He worries
that Syria will instigate problems at the Iraqi-Syrian
border, because in his view, Iraqi instability is in Syria's
interest.

--------------
DEMOCRATIZATION IN JORDAN CHUGGING ALONG
--------------


9. (C) The King expressed appreciation for the United States'
assistance for social economic programs that he believes are
helping to foster the democratization process in Jordan. He
mentioned his intention to meet members of Jordan's
newly-elected Parliament later that day. He expressed his
hope the 30-odd political parties in Jordan would find
consensus among themselves to merge into perhaps three or
four parties with coherent, activist platforms to attract a
wider cross section of the population to the polls for the
next election in four years.


10. (C) Over lunch, academics also saw a need for more
active, substantive political parties, particularly to
counter the Islamist trend, but said consolidation of the
parties would be better achieved from the bottom up, not via
a dictate from the government. Former Jordan Times editor
Rana Sabbagh-Gargour said that the Islamic Action Front is
the most organized political party because of its well
established social and charitable network provides them
grassroots connections to garner support.


11. (C) Senator Chafee did not have an opportunity to clear
this cable prior to his departure.
HALE