Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03AMMAN4849
2003-08-04 07:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

POLL RESULTS REFLECT GROWING POPULAR DESIRE FOR

Tags:  PGOV PHUM SOCI KISL JO 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004849 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KISL JO
SUBJECT: POLL RESULTS REFLECT GROWING POPULAR DESIRE FOR
POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman, per Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004849

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KISL JO
SUBJECT: POLL RESULTS REFLECT GROWING POPULAR DESIRE FOR
POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman, per Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
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1. (C) A Jordanian pollster who has conducted a number of
studies in the country over the past several years believes
that there is a growing disconnect between government
pronouncements on democracy and the popular perception of
Jordanian "half-democracy." In a recent conversation with
Pol Intern, he discussed a variety of issues including: rule
of law and justice; the persistence of elements of
authoritarianism; the role and durability of parliamentary
blocs; controversial "temporary laws;" and municipal
elections. His research points to the conclusion that
Jordanians desire a more inclusive and open political sphere
that promotes a real program of democratization.


2. (C) With the end of the war in Iraq and violence down in
the West Bank, Jordanians are now more likely to turn their
attention to domestic issues. Embassy contacts echo what we
have heard anecdotally from both government officials and
non-governmental leaders, and the pollster's conclusions
bolster what seems to be a rise in popular calls for greater
participation. End Summary.

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Polls Not Always Pleasant
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3. (C) Pol Intern met July 17 with Dr. Fares Braizat,
coordinator of the Center for Strategic Studies' Opinion
Polling Unit at the University of Jordan. Braizat earned a
Ph.D. in politics and government from the University of
Canterbury, England, and has published a number of studies on
politics, culture, and democratization. He claimed that he
and his colleagues at the Center have come under government
fire in the past for poll results which did not mesh with the
government's desired results. On more than one occasion, he
claimed, the Center was on the verge of being shut down.

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Anti-Government Forces
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4. (C) In three recent polls, Braizat surveyed random
samples of people nationally, in Palestinian refugee camps
and in the conservative city of Ma an. While there is some
measure of discontent with the government and pace of

democratization across the board, Ma an was statistically
worse than the other two samples. Its population's generally
pessimistic attitudes toward the central government, which
boiled over into streets protests in 1989, the mid-1990s, and
2002, were reflected in the way the Ma an community ranked
Jordanian democracy behind all countries in the region,
including Israel and Saudi Arabia. Surveying attitudes of
the residents of Ma an, Braizat found that most do not
believe the government does enough to promote
democratization, the rule of law, and a fair system of
justice. Rather, they seem to believe that the grievances
they hold today are essentially those which first sparked
violence fourteen years ago.


5. (C) With no generally recognized channel of
communication with the central government and a system of
patronage that does not seem to reach all sectors of Ma an's
conservative society, people there will continue to feel
isolated and resentful of governmental operations nationally,
Braizat posited. He suspects that if the trend of general
dissatisfaction with community-government relations and the
perceived lackluster performance of MPs continues, Jordan
could see "more Ma ans" in the future. In particular, he
points to the Bani Hamida community in central, rural Jordan,
as the most likely new candidate for unrest in the next two
years. While dissatisfaction does not necessarily mean
violence is likely, Braizat did suggest that the same
conditions exist today between Bani Hamida and the government
as they did between Ma an and Amman. (Comment: An academic
told PolCouns recently that the Bani Hamida had elected three
young and well educated MPs, and he expected that they would
press Bani Hamida interests in Parliament -- perhaps reducing
some of this pressure. End Comment.)

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Popular Concerns
--------------


6. (C) In general, according to Braizat, the optimism that
greeted the ascension of King Abdullah II in 1999 has faded.
Also in decline is the percentage of people who feel their
civil and political rights are safeguarded by the state
(hovering around 15 percent). The vast majority of
Jordanians, he said, feel that their fiscal contributions to
the government benefit an elite 10 percent of the population.
In addition, Braizat said most people report eroding respect
for the institutions of governance since the early 1990s:
for example, more than 50 percent of the population believe
it is difficult to find justice in Jordanian courtrooms. The
population also feels its government has corrupted and
systematically undermined Parliament through rewarding MPs
with automobiles and other fringe benefits, Braizat claimed.

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The Persistence of the Political System
--------------


7. (C) Foreign aid programs, argued Braizat, are failing to
create a new democratic structure for Jordan; rather, they
reinforce "authoritarian patterns." In terms of the King's
own approach to development in tribal areas, Braizat
criticized the government's distribution of money to satisfy
short-term "begging letters" (individual and tribal petitions
to the King) from Bedouins and instead advocated a more
sustainable approach to development in those areas of the
country most dependent on governmental support.

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Parliamentary Blocs
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8. (C) According to polling done in the past, Braizat found
15 percent of Jordanians feel the Islamic Action Front (IAF)
represents their political, social, and economic aspirations.
The next most popular party, former Parliament speaker Abdul
Hadi Majali's Constitutional Bloc, garnered only one percent.
The remaining 74 percent of the population is tribal in its
orientation and represents a significant swing-vote for
Jordanian lawmakers.

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Mechanisms of Governance
--------------


9. (C) Braizat's polling data suggests that while
Jordanians are on the whole dissatisfied with certain aspects
of their political system, they are eager to work within it
to produce change. Citizens are less impressed with
individual political actors then with their Parliament and
other mechanisms of governance.


10. (C) That said, he believes that the large number of
laws promulgated by the government (including 17 in the days
before parliamentary elections),appointment of half of city
council members, and other government steps contribute to the
popular perception that Jordan is "half-democratic." He
concluded that transparency and accountability are not only
necessary in Jordanian politics today, but are also
increasingly demanded by a frustrated population.

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Comment
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11. (C) As the war in Iraq recedes and the Middle East
peace process shows signs of real progress (especially a
reduction of violence in the West Bank),many Jordanians are
likely to focus on concerns even closer to home such as the
economy and political participation. Breizat's unreleased
polling research confirms what we are hearing anecdotally
from a growing number of our contacts -- members of
Parliament, political analysts, pundits, and the press: that
Jordanians want to feel more included in the process of
government. Several MPs and senior staff at the Palace have
mentioned to us recently their recognition of a growing
popular desire for more democracy. Whether the government
and Palace respond with concrete progress remains to be seen,
but the return of Parliament is a good first step.


12. (C) The opening of Parliament has already widened the
space for political discourse in Jordan. Along with this
increase in politics is likely to come an increase in the
number and volume of gripes and complaints against the
government. The government will have to thicken its skin to
this noise if it is going to pursue greater participation.
GNEHM