Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03AMMAN2205
2003-04-10 16:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

TFIZ01: JORDANIANS DAZED AND CONFUSED OVER HOW TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV IZ JO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002205 

SIPDIS

NEA/ARN, NEA/PPD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JO
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: JORDANIANS DAZED AND CONFUSED OVER HOW TO
REACT TO END OF SADDAM

REF: A. AMMAN 2179


B. AMMAN 2032

Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D)

-------
SUMMARY
-------


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002205

SIPDIS

NEA/ARN, NEA/PPD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JO
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: JORDANIANS DAZED AND CONFUSED OVER HOW TO
REACT TO END OF SADDAM

REF: A. AMMAN 2179


B. AMMAN 2032

Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------



1. (C) The day after Saddam's statue crashed down in Fardous
Square in Baghdad, Jordanians are mostly confused and unsure
how to react, especially in front of Americans. Many tell us
they are stunned that Baghdad "fell so easily" to the
"invaders." The most cynical -- yet heartfelt-- remark is
that the Arabs have been "defeated", yet again. The first
rumor out of the gate is a conspiracy theory that the USG
gave Saddam amnesty and safe passage from Iraq in return for
"surrender" of Iraqi resistance. However, some, mostly in
the business community, are able to view the virtual collapse
of the Iraqi regime as an opportunity.


2. (C) Even among the pragmatists who see the virtue of
Saddam's fall, the presumption of bad USG intentions remains
well entrenched. Skeptical eyes are now increasingly looking
toward "what next," with a heavy focus on the "record" of Jay
Garner as a "Zionist and friend of Sharon," and an
intensified focus on whether the U.S. will fulfill its
promises to move forward on Roadmap implementation. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
THE VIEW FROM THE WORKING CLASS
--------------


3. (C) Most contacts report a "sense of confusion." Even
though most are quick to proclaim they are glad Saddam is
gone, they confess to feelings of "wounded Arab pride" and
despair that "invaders" have had their way again. There is
anger at Saddam for "misleading" the Arab people. Dr. Fawzi
Samhoury, a human rights activist, told PolOff April 10 that
people are confused more than anything else, and appear to be
waiting for someone (i.e. local pundits and political
leaders) to "tell them how to interpret this." He said "the
leaders of the (mostly Islamist) professional associations
were absolutely stunned yesterday. They have no idea what to
do now. Where are the 6,000 Islamic fighters, they asked.
Where are the Iraqi tanks?" They vented anger on Saddam for
"doing this to his people when he knew they could only end up
humiliated by the Americans." According to Samhoury, there

was immediate speculation among professional association
leaders that Saddam must be an "agent" for the USG.


4. (C) On April 10 PolOff met with Fathallah Omrani,
President of Jordan's textile workers union. Omrani had just
come from a morning coffee with some of his union members,
and reiterated their view of the Iraq situation. There was
confusion and disappointment, he said, that Saddam didn't put
up a bigger fight, that the US didn't suffer more for its
"aggression." He said that among the textile workers, the
number one conspiracy theory is that Saddam made a "deal"
with the USG and was given asylum and transport out of Iraq
in return for the "surrender" of Iraqi forces.


5. (C) Many simply cannot believe that the "invaders" are
being greeted with warmth by the Iraqis. "How can they just
walk into our cities and get received like that?" one young
woman stammered. Local media editorials are best described
as bewildered and bitter (reftel A),with the Jordan Times
editorial saying "Iraqis' relief at what is possibly the
nearing end of both the war and the regime does not mean that
this aggression was ever just or right, nor that a US
occupation is welcomed."


6. (C) Despite mixed, unclear emotions on the fall of Saddam,
Jordanian feelings are crystal clear on the human costs of
the war. The local media continues to focus on the death of
journalist Tarek Ayoub, noting his widow's "rejection" of a
condolence message from CENTCOM. The media is also now
engrossed in daily reporting on the "nefarious" or "Zionist"
background of Jay Garner and his "association" with Israeli
PM Ariel Sharon. One former MP told PolCouns April 10 that
some of his campaign workers spun for him a conspiracy in
which Garner's appointment is the "first step" in a "Zionist
plot" to create "greater Israel from the Nile to the Tigris."

--------------
THE FEW PRAGMATISTS SEE OPPORTUNITY, VICTORY
--------------


7. (C) Omrani (para 3) said he was "very glad" Saddam was
gone. "I was, and still am a little bit, worried about the
QIZ investment and my workers. But things are definitely
moving in the right direction now. We need people in America
and the west to look at Jordan on the map and not see it as a
country between two raging battlefields, but instead as a
peaceful, safe place to invest." One small-scale Jordanian
steel manufacturer emailed EconOff with a message of
congratulations, and noted that he hoped Iraq would become
"an oasis of democracy and prosperity in the region."

8. (U) The Embassy also received extravagant bouquets of
flowers from a group of local Iraqi INC representatives,
thanking the US for liberating their country. Note: today's
floral bouquet score: USA 3, France 0. End note.

--------------
U.S. NEEDS TO MOVE QUICKLY TO HELP IRAQIS
--------------


9. (C) Senator Saed Hayel Surour and former MP Naif Mawla
told PolCouns separately April 10 that Jordanian attention
will quickly move away from thoughts of war. The U.S.,
Surour argued, has 3-4 weeks to prove to Jordanians the good
intent of the U.S. in Iraq. Reopening schools, distributing
food, and restoring electricity and water must be the top
priorities of the U.S.


10. (C) In addition, Surour and Mawla argued, the U.S. cannot
be seen as "replacing one dictator with another." It will be
crucial for the U.S. to find Iraqi political figures to whom
they can turn over the country. Surour singled out INC
leader Ahmed Chalabi as the kind of "corrupt" outside leader
that could be seen as "being imposed on Iraq by the U.S."

--------------
AND PRESENT THE ROADMAP ALREADY
--------------


11. (C) Surour and Mawla both said the most important thing
the U.S. could do to restore some trust would be to release
the Quartet Roadmap immediately, then press Israel and the
Palestinians to implement it. "Liberating Palestine," Mawla
declared, would be the perfect counterpart to "liberating
Iraq."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) After weeks of anti-USG rhetoric and predictions of
U.S. defeat at the gates of Baghdad, many contacts are
suffering from "wounded pride," are confused, and unsure how
to interpret the recent events in "a proper Arab way." Some,
however, who were all along searching for the light at the
end of the tunnel (reftel B),are clearheaded enough to see
the opportunity of a new Iraq.


13. (C) We have, for the moment, gained the initiative. The
local pragmatists who predicted that Jordanians would "turn
on Saddam" once it is clear he is finished appear to have
been correct. However, we need to work quickly to counter
the local presumption of bad intentions, especially as
regards the interim administration, humanitarian relief, and
movement on the peace process.
GNEHM