ZARQA BUSINESS COMMUNITY EYES PARLIAMENTARY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002007

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON JO
SUBJECT: ZARQA BUSINESS COMMUNITY EYES PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS


Sensitive but unclassified; please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (sbu) Although they doubt elections will occur as
scheduled on June 17, business leaders in Jordan's main
industrial center believe a new parliament will redress the
balance of political power in Jordan, giving areas outside
Amman a greater voice in policy decisions. While a new
parliament may complicate the economic reform process, giving
elected representatives more say should serve to strengthen
economic performance over time as the development of
democratic institutions and formal, constructive channels for
dissent gives investors greater confidence in the continuity
of the application of rule of law in Jordan. End summary.

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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - DOUBTS ON TIMING
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2. (sbu) In a March 19 meeting, Board members of the Zarqa
Chamber of Industry welcomed the King's announcement that
parliamentary elections would be held in June. They doubted,
though, that elections would actually be held at that time.
They noted that "no one is paying any attention" to the
prospect of elections or campaigning by candidates, as most
Jordanians have been riveted instead to the (then) prelude to
war in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, ongoing Arab-Israeli
violence. Indeed, they said most candidates for
Zarqa-designated seats were not campaigning vigorously,
calculating that the effort would be wasted on a target
population that was seemingly uninterested and distracted by
more immediate concerns.


3. (sbu) Mohammed Arsalan, Board Secretary and a candidate
himself for the "Chechen" seat for Zarqa, echoed these
remarks, noting he had put his own campaigning activity on
hold for the time being. He said it had become increasingly
difficult to solicit endorsements (including, he winked, from
the Chamber of Industry),since key interest groups were
unwilling to commit to a candidate without sizing up their
options, something they had no time for as war loomed.
Arsalan and the other Board members predicted elections would
more likely be postponed until the fall, to allow for
sufficient campaigning time between the shake-out of Iraq and
election day. They agreed that such a delay would not cost
the government any real political capital, since Jordanians
have come to expect such things, and noted that such a delay
might benefit more moderate candidates, who would be able to
put time between the elections and any remaining raw emotions
as a result of the war.

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CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE ANTICIPATED
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4. (sbu) Once parliament is convened, though, the board was
optimistic about its role in governing Jordan. They saw the
parliament playing an important role as a sounding board for
popular and regional concerns about government policies,
which would - they hoped - prompt the government to be more
responsive to constituent concerns. They were specifically
NOT worried about the prospects of Islamist control of
parliament, either directly through blocs of IAF-controlled
seats, or indirectly through election of Islamic sympathizers
to regional seats. They pointed out that, even at their
height, Islamists held less than 20% of all seats in
parliament. Indeed, some Board members thought seats in
parliament might serve to moderate the Islamic opposition,
giving them a voice in government that had lately been denied
to them.


5. (sbu) More importantly, the Zarqa Chamber's leaders saw
a new parliament as a vehicle to move some decision-making
power on economic issues out of Amman. Board members have
long complained (along with their colleagues in Irbid) that
government policy is too Amman-centric, rarely taking into
account the concerns of large communities outside the
capital. They saw influence with MP's as a way to redress
this imbalance, notably by educating and encouraging regional
MP's to ask for amendments to new legislation - like the new
Chambers of Industry Law - that negatively impacted the
regions but was drafted by and for Amman business leaders.


6. (sbu) Arsalan noted that parliament gave interest groups
a unique opportunity to influence policy. Most MP's, he
said, are very weak on substantive issues - especially in the
economy - but are willing and eager to accept advice and
guidance from constituents. In the last parliament, for
example, he said he fed his MP talking points by mobile phone
on an economic issue while the issue was being debated on the
floor - points the MP repeated verbatim during the debate.

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CHANGES TO TEMPORARY LAWS UNLIKELY
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7. (sbu) The Board noted that, while they expected to have
some entree on new legislation, their ability to effect
changes to temporary laws already passed by the government
during the parliament's absence was much more restricted.
They did not expect a new parliament to attempt to amend any
temporary laws brought forward by the government that touched
on any of the King's priorities - including most economic
reform legislation.


8. (sbu) In a similar vein, since the government controls
the order in which temporary laws are brought to the
parliament for formal ratification, the board thought it
likely that the government would simply back-load any
potentially controversial temporary laws until they had time
to discuss these laws informally with MP's or until future
elections brought more like-minded MP's to the fore. With
the raft of temporary laws passed during parliament's
absence, the Board said it would in any case be years before
any potentially contentious temporary laws made it to the
floor.

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COMMENT
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9. (sbu) The Zarqa Chamber is one of Jordan's more
forward-looking business bodies and is broadly supportive of
the King's economic agenda. Most members support QIZ
activity and the FTA and actively participate in trade
relation-building events with the Embassy and Jordan's
AmCham. They pride themselves on separating business from
politics, unlike their sister Chamber in Amman, they claim.
They are, however, ritually concerned about center-periphery
relations both in politics and economics (despite most of
them maintaining residences in Amman),as they have benefited
greatly from economic reform policies that have put
relatively more economic control into the hands of the
private sector - and hence of the regions.


10. (sbu) The Chamber's thoughts on the potentially
constructive role for a new parliament is an interesting
counterpoint to those who believe parliament will create more
opportunities for vested interests to block or slow down
economic reforms. We agree with the assessment that a new
parliament is unlikely to try to reverse progress made under
temporary laws over the past three years. However, bringing
new legislation before parliament will provide an excellent
opportunity for a host of vested interest groups - many with
"old-economy" ties - to use parliamentary procedures to slow
the pace of reform, in particular by distorting individual
reform initiatives.


11. (sbu) Even a flawed economic reform process, though,
would likely serve to legitimize the parliament and Jordan's
democratization efforts. A meaningful democratic process
would, in turn, enhance investor confidence in the
application of the rule of law in Jordan, and thus provide a
long-term boost to the country's economic process. It would
also force MP's to take responsibility for economic decisions
instead of criticizing from the sidelines, thereby moderating
some of the anti-government rhetoric often displayed by
Islamists and other opposition groups.
GNEHM