WEEKEND DEMONSTRATIONS IN JORDAN SIZABLE, PEACEFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001582

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL JO
SUBJECT: WEEKEND DEMONSTRATIONS IN JORDAN SIZABLE, PEACEFUL

REF: A. AMMAN 745


B. AMMAN 974

Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm. Reasons: 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The weekend of March 15-16 saw sizable
GOJ-permitted demonstrations in Amman and Irbid as well as
smaller gatherings in other locations. The demonstrations
were peaceful, with no security incidents reported.
Estimates of crowd sizes varied widely, but reliable sources
indicate that Amman saw approximately 3,000 participants
while Irbid had as many as 2,000. The message was largely
standard: anti-USG policy, pro-Palestinian, and supportive of
the Iraqi people. However, both major demonstrations carried
a new "theme" protesting rumored US troops in Jordan and the
possibility that Jordan could be a "launch-pad" for allied
action against Iraq. END SUMMARY.


2. (C). Credible media reports and embassy contacts present
at the March 16 demonstration in Amman report that there were
approximately 3,000 participants. (Note: media reports put
the number in Amman variously as 5,000, 10,000 and as high as
25,000, but these estimates may reflect wishful thinking).
The gathering in Amman, organized by the "Higher Coordination
for Opposition Parties", traversed the well-worn march route
from the Professional Association Headquarters to the United
Nations offices in the Shmeisani district. There was a heavy
security presence. Demonstrators chanted standard anti-USG
rhetoric, rallied "against the war" and proclaimed their
support for Palestinians and Iraqis. According to media
reports and embassy contacts, there were some vocal calls
against American troops on Jordanian soil and against the
possibility that America might use Jordan as a "launch-pad"
into Iraq. One media report indicated that a few slogans
directly criticized PM Abul Ragheb (who in recent days has
publicly dismissed rumors of USG troops in Jordan). The
peaceful demonstration lasted approximately one and a half
hours and dispersed without incident. One American
journalist, who has been in Jordan several months and
witnessed other demonstrations, described this one as "most
unspectacular!"


3. (SBU) In Irbid, approximately 2,000 marched to a similar
beat. The demonstration, organized by the leftist "Jordanian
People's Party", proceeded peacefully amidst a strong
security presence. Standard pro-Palestinian, anti-war
rhetoric was salted with slogans decrying the "double
standard" of USG policy and admonishments against allowing US
troops on Jordanian soil.


4. (C) Smaller gatherings occurred over the weekend without
incident. Embassy contacts report small, vocal gatherings of
young adults (i.e. 30-50) in refugee camps. (Note: the
overall mood in the camps, despite lack of visible protests,
is tense.) On March 10, GOJ Department of Palestinian
Affairs Director General Abdulkarim Abulhaija told RefCoord
that he and the security services "are working day and night"
to convince the refugee camps' political leaders -- both camp
committees and leaders of various Palestinian factions --
that they should not take to the streets in the event of
hostilities in Iraq. According to Abulhaija, Palestinian
refugees in Jordan view Saddam Hussein as a champion of the
Palestinian cause and will view a US-led attack on Iraq as
furtherance of a "Zionist agenda." Abulhaija assured
RefCoord that he and the security services are prepared to do
everything in their power to maintain order in Jordan's
refugee camps, but believes that it could be difficult.


5. (C) In Jerash, the "political party organization
committee" sponsored a "speech rally" on March 15 where IAF
member Ali Leytoom reportedly delivered a polemic on the
"conspiracy of the Zionist international movement" to a small
audience (reportedly about a hundred people).

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COMMENT
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6. (C) These demonstrations were similar in size, message
and behavior to previous anti-war demonstrations (reftels).
The GOJ appears to be handling the gatherings well, allowing
Jordanian anti-war organizers to coordinate their events with
anti-war movements worldwide. In general, our contacts hold
the view that demonstrations here will likely remain tightly
controlled and non-violent (despite the tension in the camps)
unless the hot button issue of the Israel/Palestinian
conflict flares up significantly.


7. (C) Despite the lackluster rallies, the general public
mood is hostile to the U.S., and especially so toward an
attack on Iraq. There is a core of organizers who hold even
more deep-seated anti-U.S. views, and we are seeing more
written tracts calling the U.S. the "number one enemy" of
Arabs and Muslims. This more radical minority will continue
to express their anti-U.S. views, and could be tempted to
take even more activist steps in the future.
GNEHM