OUTSIDE AMMAN, MANY FEAR ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001530

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI JO
SUBJECT: OUTSIDE AMMAN, MANY FEAR ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF
IRAQ WAR, HOPE FOR MOVEMENT ON MEPP

REF: AMMAN 1336

Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD GNEHM, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. In March 5 and 6 meetings in Salt and Aqaba
with Poloff, a number of prominent Jordanian businessmen and
politicians provided an "outside-the-beltway" assessment of
the GOJ's recent decision to schedule Parliamentary elections
in June and the issue on everyone's mind, Iraq. While
opinions on the importance of setting a date for elections
ran the gamut from inconsequential to highly important, the
consensus was that should the war cause instability in
Jordan, elections might be postponed again. As to the Iraq
war, while no one wants war and no one likes Saddam, there is
concern for the impact such a war will have on the Jordanian
economy, its people and the region as a whole. End Summary.

--------------
REACTION TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
--------------


2. (C) On March 5 and 6, Poloff visited several prominent
businessmen, ex-Parliamentarians and one ex Ambassador to
Iraq in Salt (a medium-sized city 30 minutes from Amman) and
Aqaba, Jordan's port city and a 3 hour drive south of Amman.
While most of our contacts were enthusiastic about the
government's announcement to hold elections on June 17, many
wondered whether it was wise to hold them during such a
"sensitive time." In response to poloff's question
concerning reaction to the June elections, our contacts (all
of whom can be counted in the solidly pro-regime column) made
the following points:

--Average Jordanians are worried about poverty and
unemployment and many blame the government for this
predicament. Their main concern centers around having enough
money to feed their families. This situation leaves little
time to focus on upcoming elections.

--Voter turnout will be low because many people feel
Parliament is inconsequential in their daily lives.

--The GOJ announced elections as a distraction to keep
people's minds occupied.

--Parliament is ineffective without real political parties.

--The Islamists will do well. The Islamic Action Front (IAF)
is expected to participate and win a significant minority
share of seats in the next Parliament.

--As to the six women's seats in Parliament, some considered
it a move in the right direction, while others felt that the
addition of six or more women to the mix would make no
difference at all. (Note: All of our interlocutors on these
visits were male)

All of our contacts believe that the conduct and outcome of a
war in Iraq will determine whether or not the government will
ultimately proceed with elections in June.

--------------
IRAQ WAR REACTION
--------------


3. (C) Referring to the expected war in Iraq, the
ex-parliamentarian from Salt, Salameh Hiyari, stated that
people feel frustrated, impotent and unable to express
themselves because of government restrictions. He is
concerned with how quiet people are and worries that such
unreleased pressure might boil at some future time. Other
contacts were more concerned with the impact a war in Iraq
would have on Jordan's already difficult economic situation,
the prospect of Iraqi refugees flowing into the Kingdom and
the fear that Sharon will take advantage of the situation in
Iraq and expel Palestinians to Jordan. While most are deeply
concerned about the short term impact on Jordan, most also
expressed guarded optimism that in the long-run, Jordan would
greatly benefit by participating in much needed
infrastructure improvements in Iraq and normalization of
trade between the two countries. They also hoped the United
States would be able to provide substantial aid to Jordan to
cushion the war's impact.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) All our out-of-town contacts reiterated the view that
being against the war in Iraq is not tantamount to support
for Saddam Hussein. Most agreed that the currently high
level of anti-US sentiment on the street would be minimized
if the war is quick and Iraqi civilian casualties are kept at
a minimum. Further, all vehemently stated that the U.S.
after the war must quickly re-focus on the
Israeli-Palestinian issue.
GNEHM