JORDAN SCHEDULES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS FOR JUNE

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 001336

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SOCI JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN SCHEDULES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS FOR JUNE
17

Classified By: A/DCM DOUGLAS SILLIMAN, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D).

SUMMARY



1. (U) THE JORDANIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ON FEBRUARY 27 THAT
LOWER HOUSE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, POSTPONED THREE TIMES,
WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 17. THE GOVERNMENT FURTHER ANNOUNCED
THAT MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR JULY 5
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL JULY 26 TO ALLOW FOR A PRUDENT AMOUNT
OF TIME BETWEEN THE TWO ELECTION DATES. MOST POLITICAL
PARTIES WELCOMED THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT AND VIEWED THE
KING'S DECISION AS A VERY POSITIVE STEP. THE ISLAMIC ACTION
FRONT (IAF),JORDAN'S LARGEST OPPOSITION PARTY, SUGGESTED
THAT MERELY SETTING A DATE FOR ELECTIONS DID NOT GO FAR
ENOUGH AND CALLED ON THE GOVERNMENT TO INTRODUCE AN ELECTIONS
LAW GUARANTEEING EQUAL REPRESENTATION TO ALL SEGMENTS OF
SOCIETY AND DECIDING WHO WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPERVISING
THE ENTIRE ELECTORAL PROCESS. WE BELIEVE THE KING WANTS TO
MOVE AHEAD WITH ELECTIONS IN JUNE, UNLESS THERE IS SERIOUS
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. END SUMMARY

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FOURTH TIME'S THE CHARM?
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2. (U) THE KING DISSOLVED THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT IN
JUNE 2001. THE CONSTITUTION CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONS WITHIN
FOUR MONTHS AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF THE PARLIAMENT UNLESS
THERE ARE COMPELLING CIRCUMSTANCES DEEMED TO IMPEDE ON THE
ELECTORAL PROCESS. THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ON THREE PREVIOUS
OCCASIONS GENERAL TIME PERIODS FOR NEW ELECTIONS, YET NEVER
SET SPECIFIC DATES TO HOLD THEM, AND EVENTUALLY POSTPONED
THEM EACH TIME. THUS FAR, MANY OF THE KINGDOM'S POLITICAL
PARTIES HAVE REACTED POSITIVELY YET CAUTIOUSLY TO THE
ANNOUNCEMENT. MOST VIEW THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION AS A VERY
POSITIVE STEP, YET ARE SKEPTICAL THAT ELECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY
TAKE PLACE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF HOSTILITIES IN IRAQ.

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POLITICAL PARTIES REACT
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3. (C) AMONG THE MOST VOCAL OF THE POLITICAL PARTIES REACTING
TO THE GOVERNMENT'S ANNOUNCEMENT WAS THE IAF, THE POLITICAL
ARM OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, WHICH BOYCOTTED THE 1997
ELECTIONS. IN A MARCH 2ND PRESS INTERVIEW, IAF SECRETARY
GENERAL HAMZA MANSOUR STATED, "THERE ARE IMPORTANT ELEMENTS
TO CONSIDER BEFORE SETTING A DATE, INCLUDING CHARTING A
DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS LAW AND DECIDING WHO SHOULD SUPERVISE
THE PROCESS." THE IAF IS A STRONG OPPONENT OF THE "ONE MAN
ONE VOTE" FORMULA OF THE CURRENT ELECTIONS LAW, FAVORING
INSTEAD THE INTRODUCTION OF A PROPORTIONAL LIST THAT WOULD
PROVIDE THE IAF--JORDAN'S ONLY ORGANIZED NATIONWIDE POLITICAL
PARTY--WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF SUCCESS IN ELECTIONS
(ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEPTEL). MORE CENTRIST PARTIES, BY
CONTRAST, ENTHUSIASTICALLY WELCOMED THE GOVERNMENT'S
ANNOUNCEMENT AND URGED JORDANIANS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
UPCOMING DEMOCRATIC ELECTORAL PROCESS. POST CONTACTS VIEWED
THE DECISION AS POSITIVE FOR BOTH JORDAN AND FOR THE KING,
BUT ALSO EXPRESSED SOME CONCERN THAT A WAR IN IRAQ COULD LEAD
THE GOJ TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS AGAIN.


4. (C) THE GOVERNMENT EXPRESSED AN INTEREST IN MEETING WITH
POLITICAL PARTIES TO DISCUSS THEIR RESPECTIVE CONCERNS BUT
INSISTS THAT THE CURRENT ELECTION FORMULA--ONE MAN-ONE VOTE
IN SINGLE MEMBER CONSTITUENCIES--IS FAIR, EFFECTIVE, AND WILL
NOT CHANGE. THE IAF INDICATED THAT IT WILL SOON ANNOUNCE
WHETHER IT INTENDS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE JUNE ELECTIONS OR
BOYCOTT THEM FOR A SECOND TIME.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) OVERALL, THE KING'S DECISION TO SET AN ELECTION DATE
IS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE MANY POST CONTACTS WERE
PREDICTING A FOURTH POSTPONEMENT DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
KING AND GOVERNMENT CHOSE TO HOLD THE ELECTIONS IN MID JUNE
INDICATES THAT IT HAS FACTORED THE IRAQ WAR INTO ITS
CALCULATIONS AND HOPES THAT BY THEN THE WAR WOULD BE OVER,
TEMPERS WILL HAVE CALMED, AND THE ELECTIONS CAN PROCEED AS
PLANNED. WE BELIEVE THE KING WANTS TO MOVE AHEAD AS
ANNOUNCED, AND WILL DO SO UNLESS THERE IS SERIOUS INSTABILITY
IN THE REGION.


6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE IAF HAS YET TO ANNOUNCE WHETHER THEY
INTEND TO PARTICIPATE IN THE JUNE ELECTIONS, FEW EXPECT THEM
TO ANNOUNCE A BOYCOTT AND RISK AGAIN BEING LEFT OUT OF THE
POLITICAL PROCESS. THE GOVERNMENT, ALTHOUGH AMENABLE TO
LISTENING TO THEIR CONCERNS REGARDING THE ELECTIONS LAW, IS
UNLIKELY TO ALTER THE STATUS QUO--WHICH EFFECTIVELY LIMITS
THE IAF'S ABILITY TO WIN PARLIAMENTARY SEATS.
GNEHM