RULING PARTY WINS FOURTH BY-ELECTION IN A ROW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000632

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM GH
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY WINS FOURTH BY-ELECTION IN A ROW


Classified By: Polchief Richard Kaminski, reason 1.5(B/D).

NPP Wins Big
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1. (U) On March 25 the Ruling NPP party won its fourth
consecutive by-election since assuming power in January
of 2001, handily defeating the leading opposition
candidate of the NDC, and two small party candidates.
By a vote of 12,220 to 4,929 for the NDC (with 3,705 for
the PNC candidate and 241 for the DPP nominee),the NPP
retained the far northern constituency of Navrongo. While
the NPP parliamentary majority remains slim (102 NPP MPs
to 90 for the NDC, with seven small party and independent
MPs split between the two),the strength of the victory
underscores the present dominance of the NPP, which is able
to marshal significantly superior resources and play
local politics to perfection.

Powers of Incumbency
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2. (U) Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1993,
the Navrongo constituency has been hotly contested between
the NPP and NDC, the seat changing hands several times in
very close votes in both general and by-elections (required
this time after the NPP MP perished in a car accident
several months ago). In anticipation of another close
contest, the NPP national executive set up shop in the
Navrongo constituency well before any of the other parties,
and conducted an intensive door-to-door campaign from
start to finish. The Vice President, Aliu Mahama, a
northerner, scoured the constituency the final two full
days of the campaign, opening projects, promising
assistance, and pressing for support. Teams of workers
from the Electricity Company of Ghana busied themselves
hooking up electricity to small and previously neglected
communities up to the day before the vote. On election
day, teams of NPP bicyclists wheeled the elderly and
infirm to the polls. Senior officials of the party and
the government patrolled the polling stations, offering
handshakes and backslaps to party agents overseeing
votes (the agents attended four separate training
sessions on their election-day duties). Neither the DNC
nor the two smaller parties could match the
NPP campaign steamroller. Continuing splits within the
NDC also hurt its chances, as it played catch-up without
a full complement of campaign personalities on hand to
offset the NPP's circulating collection of ruling party
luminaries.

Not All Was Squeaky Clean
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3. (SBU) Before, during and after the election, the NDC
made its now traditional accusations of vote buying,
suggesting the NPP freely distributed roofing tin, sacks
of rice, clothing, and other items of use to impoverished
constituents, as well as making cash payments to village
elders and traditional leaders. While these accusations
are unconfirmed, they are a traditional part of Ghanaian
politics, and a practice the NDC excelled in when they
ran the government. Indeed, all parties quietly engage
in such petty trading with the electorate. Such
pot-calling-the-kettle-black complaints do not register
greatly with the Ghanaian public.


4. (SBU) Of greater concern for the integrity of the
campaign, the Ghanaian National Police required the NDC
to "reschedule" a series of campaign rallies for the
duration of the Vice President's visit, the last two
full days of the campaign. The ostensible reason for
the ban on NDC rallies was the need to avoid "clashes"
between the two camps. In effect, the NDC sat on its
hands while the NPP brought in its heaviest campaign
artillery at the very end of the contest. This was the
third time out of four by-elections the NPP government
imposed such "rescheduling," once again mirroring tactics
employed by the NDC when it held the reins of power.


5. (SBU) There were also many rumors of the use of
"Macho Men," campaign thugs, to intimidate the opposition.
Both the NDC and NPP feared the use of such bullying
tactics, and NPP officials told us they did indeed bring
"youths" to town, strictly out of concern, so they
claimed, for NDC thugs intervening at polling stations.
However, Polchief circulating on election day saw little
sign of such Macho Men. Election Commission officials
ran a competent and secure process, and police, army,
and other security personnel oversaw polling in a neutral
and even-handed manner.

Comment
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6. (C) With four by-election victories in a row (only one
a close contest),the NPP appears nearly unbeatable in such
concentrated contests, in which it can pour in resources
and personnel far beyond the capacity of the other
parties. While Vice Presidential visits, last minute
electricity hook-ups, and even "honorariums" for local
dignitaries are traditional campaign practices, enforced
"rescheduling" of opposition political rallies is another
order of political shenanigan entirely. It also appears
to have been unnecessary, given the wide margin of
victory. There are two more by-elections pending in the
near future, one an NPP seat and one an NDC constituency.
NPP victories in those campaigns will thoroughly discourage
an opposition already psychologically on the ropes. The
NPP is a popular government, its campaign team is
experienced, well-resourced and determined, and it is
intent on keeping its string of victories intact.
Opposition success will be hard to come by. End comment.
YATES