NIGERIA: POSSIBLE DEAL FOR WARRI POLITICAL IMPASSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000909

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POSSIBLE DEAL FOR WARRI POLITICAL IMPASSE


REF: ABUJA 816 AND PREVIOUS


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter for reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d).


1.(C) Post's Corporate Responsibility Officer (CRO) met with
Temi Harriman, the National Assembly Representative (PDP) for
the Warri area, on May 13 in Abuja. Although she
characterized polling in her constituency on both April 12
and 19 (National Assembly and Presidential/Gubernatorial
elections, respectively) as almost non-existent, she
refrained from casting doubt on her renewed electoral
mandate. She felt she was a strong candidate for Deputy
Speaker of the House, a position to be decided at a May 22
PDP meeting in Port Harcourt.


2.(C) Commenting on the ongoing crisis in the Warri area,
Harriman, an Itsekiri, blamed the new outbreak of violence
on Ijaw youth in the Warri Southwest Local Government Area
(LGA). She rejected Ijaw claims that this LGA is populated
predominantly by Ijaws. Similarly, she dismissed Ijaw
demands to control the majority of the LGA's 10 electoral
wards, six of which are currently controlled by Itsekiri.
Nevertheless, she emphasized that her constituency, the three
LGAs of Warri, include substantial numbers of Ijaw and
Uhrobos in addition to her fellow Itsekiri; she claimed to be
working with moderate Ijaw leaders who in turn have given her
political support.


3.(C) During the meeting at Harriman's Abuja residence,
Jefferson Arubi, the PDP candidate for the Chairman of the
Warri Southwest local government area, arrived with an
"emergency" issue to discuss with Harriman. According to the
visibly agitated Arubi, the Delta PDP had just reassigned him
to run for the lower office of Deputy Chairman, while
elevating an Ijaw candidate to the Chairmanship candidacy.
Arubi claimed this was the handiwork of Delta Governor James
Ibori (PDP); Arubi said he had been told that any attempt to
resist this change would lead to his expulsion from the
party.


4.(C) Harriman's immediate response was negative, because
Warri Southwest LGA had been historically controlled by
Itsekiri. Upon reflection, however, she noted that this was
likely an attempt by the Presidency to ameliorate the Warri
crisis by giving the Ijaw a taste of politcal power in Warri.
She advised Arubi to accept the Deputy Chairman position and
inform the Ijaw candidate that the Itsekiri have accepted
this move in the name of peace. The Ijaw should not,
however, consider the arrangement permanent; in four years
the Chairmanship should revert to Itsekiri control.


5.(C) Comment: The militant Ijaw youth of Warri have vowed
to block the June 21 LGA elections. Ijaws fear the Itsekiri
will dominate the elections. The effort to give the
Chairmanship of the LGA to the Ijaw certainly looks like an
attempt to help defuse the crisis. While this solution is a
stop-gap measure and does not address the fundamental Ijaw
grievances of the Warri Southwest LGA, it offers the Ijaw
tangible political concessions that might help ease tensions.
This gesture by itself, however, is probably inadequate to
mollify the Ijaw militants. The challenge will now be for
traditional Ijaw leaders such as Chief E.K. Clark to "sell"
this development as a meaningful gain to the rebellious,
sometimes criminally inclined, Ijaw youth in the marshy areas
of Warri.
JETER