NIGERIA: BUHARI NOT READY TO CONCEDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000808

SIPDIS


NSC FOR JFRASER
LONDON FOR GURNEY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI NOT READY TO CONCEDE


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: In a late night meeting with Ambassador
on April 23, ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari
restated his rejection of the just completed Presidential,
Gubernatorial and National Assembly elections. He said he
lost because the PDP stole the election. He reiterated his
position that new elections were necessary and that no
legitimate government would exist in Nigeria after May 29.
He stressed that the only thing he wanted was "an
opportunity for Nigerians to choose their government
through free, fair and transparent elections." Buhari
asserted that he would adhere to whatever decision the ANPP
made on contesting the election, saying that he was a
"prisoner of the party." However, he expressed little
confidence in the efficacy of the electoral tribunals to
redress the deficiencies of the elections. Because of the
patent electoral irregularities in many areas, Buhari has
been trying to sculpt himself into the role of "guardian of
democracy." Given Buhari's coupist past, and less than
sterling reputation on human rights, this new role is laden
with irony but Buhari seems intent to play it to the hilt.
However, we do not think it will stick. Nevertheless,
Buhari will try to galvanize the opposition and public to
reject the elections. While his efforts will likely prove
quixotic, he remains a compelling figure who will demand
attention and probably keep tension high, at least in the
short-term. END SUMMARY.


BUHARI'S STAND
--------------



2. (C) In a late night meeting with Ambassador Jeter on
April 23, ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari
restated his stand on the Presidential, Gubernatorial and
National Assembly elections. He asserted that elections
did not take place in at least 13 of Nigeria's 36 states.
Results from these areas were tantamount to forgeries, he
continued. Since the elections did not hold in these
areas, INEC could not have legally declared Obasanjo victor
as he would have been unable to satisfy the geographical
requirement of winning 25 percent of the vote in 25 states.



3. (C) Buhari attributed his defeat to alleged fraudulent
manipulation of the electoral process by the incumbent PDP
and partisan INEC commissioners. Buhari maintained that
the PDP used various methods to skew the April 12 and the
April 19 polls, including ballot box-stuffing, intimidation
of voters, the fraudulent registration process and outright
manufacturing of election results. The ANPP had noted
these deficiencies in its statements after the April 12
legislative elections; however, he accused INEC of
willfully ignoring its critics and continuing with the
April l9 elections without resolving its deficiencies.
Buhari maintained his interest in coordinating with other
aggrieved parties. According to Buhari, however, APGA
Presidential Candidate Chukwemeka Ojukwu had initially
agreed to cooperate. Buhari said that after he talked to
APGA about coordination, Ojukwu made a statement asking for
INEC to clean up the results. The next day, Ojukwu
declared himself the winner of the Presidential elections
so "I do not know what his plans are," said Buhari.



4. (C) Buhari said the elections in the Southeast and
South-South were particularly opprobrious, failing to meet
minimal standards. He claimed that insufficient
documentary evidence existed to pursue court cases in many
states of those two regions because the ersatz results were
"cooked" at the various INEC headquarters. No genuine
polling station or collation center tally sheets were
completed since no voting ever occurred. He also cited
problems in Kaduna, Katsina, Nasarawa, Benue and Adamawa
states as "serious." However, Buhari said, in these states
a semblance of elections took place even though results
were manipulated in the collation process. In these cases,
Buhari continued, the ANPP would take individual issues to
the Elections Tribunals, since documentation of the
outcomes exists. He said that the ANPP was compiling its
evidence and would present it to the Embassy when data
collection was complete.



5. (C) Accusing President Obasanjo of complicity in the
alleged fraud, Buhari stated "I do not believe that the
President did not know" about the wrongdoing. Buhari
claimed the ANPP uncovered ballot boxes in Katsina, Niger,
Kaduna and Kano states before the Presidential elections.
He said that security officials at many sites (mostly in
the Southeast and South-South, but not limited there) fired
weapons into the air to frighten off voters so the security
personnel could swipe then stuff the ballot boxes at an
alternative location.


BUHARI'S STRATEGY
--------------



6. (C) Buhari, while stopping short of declaring his
victory, said that elections were so flawed that, after the
May 29 inauguration, "no legitimate government would exist"
in Nigeria. He has said that his followers should not
"recognize any government" after May 29 and has called for
"mass action" in support of his claims. He has not defined
what those actions should be and told the Ambassador that
he was willing to accept the lead of the ANPP in deciding
his course of action. The party, however, had yet to
decide on its course of action as it was still examining
all its options. (COMMENT: Buhari was probably attempting
to distance himself from the spectre of mass protests
getting out of hand. Prior to this meeting, he had been on
the ramparts leading the call for mass action. However at
the meeting, he claimed that he was a "prisoner of his
party" and would simply follow what the party decided -- as
if he had no voice in this matter. Instead of being the
General that he is, Buhari laid the claim that he merely
was a pliant foot soldier. We found this disingenuous.
END COMMENT.)


WHAT DOES HE WANT
--------------



7. (C) Buhari rejected the option of the ANPP
participating in the Obasanjo Administration, complaining
that such a government would be a sham because Obasanjo
would simply people it with opportunists from the ANPP and
other opposition parties. Asked by the Ambassador if he
had spoken to Obasanjo, Buhari said that Obasanjo had
requested a meeting but he had refused. Buhari stated that
he was not interested in speaking with Obasanjo, as he
really had no hope of finding common ground with the
President so there was no reason to go through the
pretense. Ambassador told Buhari that the importance of
these elections extended beyond Nigeria's borders; the
elections had implications for peace, stability and the
rule of law in the region and throughout Africa. Buhari
responded that he was aware of Nigeria's importance
throughout the continent, and stressed that the only thing
he wanted was "an opportunity for Nigerians to choose their
government through free, fair and transparent elections."
Buhari said that he felt trapped by the party, but stated
flatly that he "could not step down." "If I were to do
something other than what my party is telling me, I would
lose all political credibility," Buhari stated.



8. (C) COMMENT: Buhari will continue his clamor for
repeating the election. He knows this is highly
improbable, but it maintains his stature as Obasanjo's
staunchest national critic and, implicitly, as the champion
of Northern interests. Buhari's challenge is whether he
can unite the opposition parties in a post-election
campaign to challenge the results. His martinet
antecedents and his perceived regional chauvinism will
crimp this attempt. Consequently, Buhari will continue to
make waves and good newsprint; however, unless he can
galvanize the opposition, especially the APGA and the AD,
the waves he makes alone and with fellow Northerners
probably will be insufficient to up-end the election
results.
JETER