NIGERIA: ARMY MINISTER DISMISSES OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000803

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ARMY MINISTER DISMISSES OPPOSITION
THREATS OF NON-RECOGNITION

REF: ABUJA 749


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).



1. (C) During an April 28 meeting, Ambassador Jeter and
Minister of State for Defense (Army) Lawal Batagarawa
discussed the recent Presidential elections. Batagarawa
thought opposition candidate Mohammadu Buhari's calls to
reject President Olusegun Obasanjo's electoral victory
would be ineffective - most people would ignore Buhari's
exhortation. He said the PDP was "opening channels of
communication" to Buhari's supporters, encouraging them to
take their grievances to the electoral tribunals.
(COMMENT: In an April 24 meeting the Ambassador (REF),
Minister of Defense T.Y. Danjuma also indicated the PDP
would be reaching out to the opposition parties this week.
END COMMENT.)



2. (C) The Ambassador suggested that President Obasanjo
could ease some of the political tension and be seen as
taking a conciliatory high road by publicly acknowledging
the elections were defective and emphasizing the need for
the electoral tribunal to cure these problems. Batagarawa
responded that the President had already asked the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to look
into allegations of electoral misconduct. However, the
President was loathe "to make statements that would cause
more problems than they would solve" by undermining both
the electoral tribunals and INEC. Batagarawa expressed
confidence in the Nigerian legal system and said any
investigations into electoral misconduct must originate
with the tribunals, not the Presidency. Batagarawa stated
he would like to see international observers involved in
the tribunals to enhance the credibility of the process.



3. (C) Citing Kano and Katsina as examples, the Minister
complained ANPP used traditional rulers and religion to
insure its victory in parts of the North. In addition to
accusing the ANPP of threatening PDP supporters in Kano,
Batagarawa said the Emir of Katsina instructed his
followers to vote for Buhari.



4. (C) COMMENT: Batagarawa was actively involved in the
PDP campaign in the North and thus his views are those of
an interested party. Nevertheless, his assertion of ANPP
exercise of undue pressure in Northern states is credible.
Batagarawa's view that the electoral tribunals would
correct all the defects in the elections is overly
optimistic.



5. (C) At bottom, Batagarawa seemed to be saying that both
major parties cheated, thus the ANPP should not be
complaining. While this may not be the most noble
sentiment it probably dominates the PDP mind-set. END
COMMENT.
JETER