NIGERIA: SNAPSHOT OF NORTHERN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000717

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SNAPSHOT OF NORTHERN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As with the Presidential contest,
most Northern gubernatorial elections will be fought
between the two major parties in Nigeria, the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Nigerians
Peoples Party (ANPP). Overall, ANPP candidates are
expected to benefit from the popularity of General
Muhammadu Buhari in the region. While some incumbent
governors (particularly Benue and Plateau) have been
accused of incompetence, others are facing opposition
from the local elite and power-brokers. In some states
(Borno, Jigawa and Kaduna),intra-party squabbles
arising from rancorous gubernatorial primaries have
generated deep divisions within parties that will
adversely affect candidates at the polls. Some places
the incumbent will likely win because the opposition
parties are weak and disorganized. A few governors
(Katsina and Sokoto) are simply popular at the
grassroots and would be difficult to defeat. In the
end, we expect the majority of incumbents to return.
This is a brief rundown of a few of the key races in
the North. END SUMMARY.


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ADAMAWA
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2. (C) Vice President Atiku Abubakar is Adamawa's
kingpin, and he is very close to the Lamido
(traditional ruler). But his coattails may not be as
long as is commonly assumed. The VP's popularity in
some areas of this state is low. Incumbent governor
Boni Haruna is not well liked and is running against a
popular ANPP Candidate, Adamu Moddibo. Bala Takaya, a
political science professor and established politician,
is flying the AD flag. Takaya is popular with
Christians and intellectuals. Many believe he won the
election in 1999 but was wrongfully denied victory by
vote tampering. Takaya comes from the same senatorial
district as the governor; thus, they will split that
area, which will benefit Modibbo (the only Muslim among
the three in a state that is probably more than half
Muslim). This should be a close race. An easy victory
by Haruna would quickly precipitate cries of electoral
fraud and violence.


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BAUCHI
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3. (SBU) Incumbent governor Adamu Mu'azu (PDP) has been
an able administrator; he also is popular throughout
the state. However, this race will not be a push-over.
The ANPP had a strong presence in the State and some
observers believe the party has an edge over the PDP.
Buhari's coat tails will help the ANPP. However,
Mu'azu's incumbency advantage and the PDP's
determination to win suggest the governor will return.


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BENUE
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4. (C) Benue is the home of the Tiv, the largest ethnic
group in the Middle Belt. Governor George Akume (PDP)
has many problems with which to contend. Akume's
inability to bring many development projects to his
state has fueled accusations of incompetence. His
kinsmen have questioned his relationship with President
Obasanjo, whom they blame for the October 2001 Zaki-
Biam massacre. Akume faces an enemy in his former
mentor, the notoriously corrupt former PDP Chairman
Chief Barnabas Gemade, who supported Akume financially
in 1999. Gemade and Akume parted ways when Akume
supported Obasanjo at this year's PDP convention. In
spite of these problems, Akume might win if he gets the
support of the Idoma. The Idoma are the second largest
ethnic group in the State and control one of three
senatorial zones. PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh is
Idoma, and observers expect Idomas to vote PDP. If
Akume can win the Idoma bloc vote, he will have the
inside track on his two major opponents, Paul Unongo
(ANPP) and Mike Mku (UNPP); both of Akume's opponents
are Tiv, and they will likely split the Tiv vote.


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BORNO
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5. (C) Incumbent governor Mala Kachalla is running on
the AD ticket after losing the ANPP primary to Senator
Ali Sheriff, his former financier. Sheriff has
invested a great deal of time, energy and resources in
building a political machine in the State and should
win a close race. Kachalla still has the support of
the political elite, but is disliked by civil servants
in the state. PDP Candidate Kashim Ibrahim Imam, a
well-regarded PDP operative, is likely to come in
third; Borno is not a must-win state for the ruling
party.


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KADUNA
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6. (C) Kaduna is the historic political center of the
North. Many influential Northern politicians,
businessmen, military and civil servants have
residences in Kaduna city. Today, Kaduna state is
almost evenly divided between Muslims and Christians.
The current contest is between incumbent governor Ahmed
Mohammed Makarfi (PDP) and his former Finance
Commissioner, Suleiman Hunkuyi (ANPP). It will be
close. The ANPP is very strong in the State, and
Buhari's coattails are long. Makarfi's performance has
been good and efforts to quell ethnic unrest in the
state may help him retain his job. He may be the
choice of mostly-Christian Southern Kaduna, where his
creation of first-class chieftancies for local
traditional rulers gained him support there but
temporarily put him at odds with the influential Zaria
Emirate. Makarfi's move to reconcile with his former
adversary, Shehu Idris, the Emir of Zazzau (Zaria),and
other senior PDP figures has greatly enhanced his
chances of winning. However, Makarfi will have to
contend with the strong opposition to Obasanjo in the
northern Kaduna, Makarfi's home turf.


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KANO
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7. (C) With over four million registered voters, Kano
is the most populous state in the region, and its
capital city is the commercial center of the North. In
1999, PDP won the governorship race and most of the
Assembly seats. A firm Obasanjo ally, Governor Rabiu
Musa Kwankwaso has had problems with most of the
political heavyweights in the state, including Speaker
of the House Ghali Na'abba (who just lost his
reelection bid in part due to Kwankwaso's opposition).
Minister of Labor Musa Gwadabe and former Governor
Abubakar Rimi also dislike Kwankwaso. Many locals are
angry with the governor for not backing Rimi's quixotic
bid for the PDP Presidential nomination. Obasanjo's
popularity in Kano is very low because of failures to
address social and economic problems; many industries
have closed and thousands of workers have been laid-
off. Both the city and the state benefited during the
years of Abacha's rule, as the deceased dictator called
Kano home. This anti-Obasanjo sentiment will hurt the
Governor in Kano city.



8. (C) Kwankwaso is stronger in the rural areas, but
his support for Obasanjo will cost him some votes there
as well. Finally, although the steam is slowly
escaping from the political Sharia boiler, its
advocates retain their influence and continue to
smolder over Kwankwaso's lukewarm endorsement of their
movement. These factors, coupled with Buhari's
coattails working for the ANPP mean that the incumbent
would lose a fair race, even though the ANPP was long
bitterly divided over its gubernatorial candidate. The
deciding factor is whether the race indeed will be
fair. It probably will not be. To rebuild the PDP in
the North after the election, Obasanjo and the PDP will
have to demonstrate that they can return favors to
their strong supporters (like Kwankwaso).


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KATSINA
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9. (C) Katsina is the home of General Buhari. He will
push hard to make sure his party wins. Governor Umaru
Yar'Adua (PDP) is respected and has performed well.
However, Obasanjo and the PDP are unpopular
(notwithstanding INEC vote counts from the April 12
elections that might suggest otherwise),and Buhari
(son of the soil) is the overwhelming choice. Were the
Presidential race not part of election day, the well-
regarded Yar'Adua would probably be able to overcome
the PDP's Obasanjo handicap easily. Even with the
Buhari factor working against him, he has the GON and
the national PDP pulling levers for him. He should
pull off a squeaker over the ANPP's Nura Khalil.


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KWARA
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10. (C) A week ago, we would not have wanted to call
this race; it was just too close. Both principal
candidates had strong negatives, lots of money and
hundreds of thugs. But with the PDP's April 12
performance in the state, an ANPP victory seems less
likely now unless the AD candidate should (improbably)
withdraw in favor of Governor Mohammed Lawal or Lawal
should (and this is more likely) resort to widespread
intimidation of voters in Kwara Central, the power base
of his enemy, wealthy banker and former Presidential
aspirant Dr. Olusola Saraki. Saraki's son is running
for Governor, and his daughter recently claimed the
Senate seat for Kwara Central.


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PLATEAU
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11. (C) Incumbent governor Joshua Dariye (PDP) is
embattled. He has performed poorly and is a divisive
political figure in a divided state. He has poured
salt into Plateau's ethnic and religious wounds instead
of salving them. Dariye faces strong opposition from
every direction. Civil servants who have not been paid
salaries for months have vowed to resist his comeback
bid and are supporting the AD's Damishi Sango, former
Minister of Sports. Sango is supported by Solomon Lar.
Lar, a corrupt former PDP Chairman, is perhaps the most
influential politician in the state. Plateau,
particularly Langtang, is the home of many retired
generals who are publicly active. They support the
ANPP Candidate, General Jang.


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SOKOTO
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12. (C) Sokoto is the spiritual capital of the Northern
Muslim community; it is the seat of the famous Sokoto
Caliphate. By all accounts, Sokoto will be retained by
the ANPP. Governor Attahiru Bafarawa may be almost
incoherent when he speaks the English language, but he
is politically comfortable and his opponent is weak.
Bafarawa is widely seen as an "IBB Boy" in a state
where the former military ruler remains popular.
During the introduction of Shari'a, the Governor
maintained a cordial relationship with the minority
Christian community. Bafarawa was the first northern
governor that openly criticized the Obasanjo
Administration for discriminating against the North.
Obasanjo's opponents in the North applauded this speech
and Bafarawa instantly became a northern hero.
JETER