NIGERIA: CONDUCT OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000683

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: CONDUCT OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY POLLS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons: 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: This preliminary report on Nigeria's
April 12 National Assembly elections provides an overview
of Nigeria on election day. More detailed observations and
analysis will be provided septel. The elections held in a
relatively calm atmosphere. Turnout was fair in most of
the areas directly observed by EmbOffs, with percentages
ranging from under 30 to about 60 percent. Most polling
stations opened late, many were under-staffed. Most INEC
staff seemed under-trained. Domestic monitors were present
at most sites visited and the major political parties, PDP
and ANPP, had almost universal coverage of the polling
sites. Coverage by other political party agents was good
in their respective areas of strength. Embassy observers
noted various technical irregularities in the voting
procedure which seemed to be the result of inadequate
training and preparation by INEC. These anomalies did not
appear to undermine the integrity of the voting process or
vote tabulation at the individual polling stations.
However, observers saw confusion and lack of organization
at numerous vote collation centers. Overall, INEC managed
a barely adequate performance in polling places on Saturday
but most people were willing to give INEC the benefit of
the doubt. However, the difficulties at the collation
centers are cause for concern because they could cast doubt
on the quality of the vote tabulation process and impact
expectations for Saturday's Presidential and Gubernatorial
polls. INEC needs to focus on its performance in the next
round. (Specific recommendations in Para 11.) Too few
results are in for an assessment of the overall quality of
the legislative elections. END SUMMARY.


ATMOSPHERE
--------------



2. (C) Nigeria's National Assembly elections held on
April 12, in a relatively calm atmosphere through most of
the country. There were reports of violence and
irregularities from parts of the south-south (Delta oil
region) and southeast (home of Nigeria's third-largest
tribe, the Igbo) and isolated incidents reported throughout
the country, but there was probably less violence on this
Saturday than on most that preceded it this year. The
southwest (home to incumbent President Obasanjo and the
seat of the Yoruba tribe) and the north (home of the Hausa-
Fulani ethnic group) were relatively calm.


TURNOUT
--------------



3. (C) The turnout appeared fair throughout the areas
observed by EmbOffs. Lagos Conoffs reported a turnout of
about 30 percent at the polling sites they visited in
Rivers State. In Lagos, they estimated turnout at about 40
percent. In Katsina State (in the northwest and home to
ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari),and Kano
state (a northern state that has either the largest or
second largest population in Nigeria),turnout was running
at about 50 percent. Emboff reported between 40 and 50
percent turnout at the sites visited in Edo State. In
Kaduna State (a state with a Christian/Muslim mixed
population) and Plateau State (an ethnically-diverse state
in Nigeria's middle belt) some sites had a 50 to 60 percent
turnout.


INEC PERFORMANCE
--------------



4. (C) Nationwide, few polling places opened at the 0800
starting time. In the few areas that received timely
materials, polling got underway at about 0900. In most
areas, polling began after 1000. Observers in Imo State
reported that INEC performed well. In a few places
scattered around the country, polling did not begin until
early afternoon. The cumbersome voting process prescribed
by INEC required between 3 and 5 minutes per voter to
accomplish in most stations. (The best-run ones could
manage a voter per minute.) In many locations, party
agents or observers filled in for the shortfall in INEC
officials. In most of these cases, the party agents did
not act overtly partisan and contributed to the success of
the polling exercise.


SITE UNSEEN
--------------



5. (C) In two cases that Emboffs are aware of, one in the
Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and one in Katsina State, a
polling site was missing altogether. In the FCT, DCM
encountered a group of perhaps two hundred registered
voters angry that INEC had not set up their polling
station. Two other co-located polling stations were
operating on the same premises. In Katsina, PolOff
discovered a site, complete with ballot boxes and a
fifteen-year-old Polling Assistant, but no materials and no
indication that any voters had registered there. About 50
meters away, another polling site was up and running with
20-30 people waiting their turn to vote.


DOMESTIC MONITORS AND SECURITY
--------------



6. (C) Domestic monitors, including the Nigeria Labour
Council (NLC),FOMWAN (a Muslim women's organization),The
Monitor Group (TMG) and the Justice, Democracy and Peace
Commission (JDPC),were present at many sites. The JDPC
was the only one seen in Benin City. The two major
political parties (PDP and ANPP) had almost universal
coverage of the widespread polling sites, with the parties
strongest in the district generally better trained in
election day activities than many INEC officials.



7. (C) Security was present at most polling sites;
policemen manning the polls were generally unarmed.
Prisons, Immigration and Customs officers were present
during the voting, and in some areas, soldiers had been
deployed to help prevent violence.


SECRET BALLOTS AND VOTE TABULATION

SIPDIS
--------------



8. (C) Many polling sites made no provision for secrecy
of the ballots as voters made their choices. The extent of
secrecy's compromise varied from voting in the middle of a
crowd to party agents observing individuals' selections.
In one case, a PDP party agent was taking blank ballots
from voters and marking the ballots himself. True secrecy
was a rarity, found in perhaps 10 to 20 percent of stations
visited.



9. (C) INEC's byzantine rules created some confusion at
polling sites, but normally the party agents and poll
workers were able to agree on how elections would be run.
The atmosphere of consensus and cooperation frayed at the
end of the day as results from polling stations were
collected and forwarded to collection centers and on to the
state capitals. Unfamiliarity with the INEC forms caused
much of the confusion in collating the results, and in some
cases, zealous party agents would not allow results to be
collated in the presence of "unauthorized" persons, whether
in possession of identification or not. Many collation
sites operated with only candles or lamplight. Some had to
be moved because not even these forms of illumination were
available.



10. (C) COMMENT: INEC managed to perform adequately
(barely) on Saturday. In spite of irregularities in the
process, most witnesses believed that the irregularities
were more technical in nature (e.g., whether the polling
officials stamped the back of the ballot paper before
issuing it) than substantive. Party polling agents voiced
few complaints to Emboffs. Still, INEC could have done a
much better job with a little more planning. Distribution
and collection of the ballots was not well organized on
April 12, and its rule books were confusing. INEC needs to
stick to schedule and revamp its transportation plan to
improve its performance by this Saturday. While the
materials were sufficient for the National Assembly
elections, the larger turnouts expected for Presidential
and Gubernatorial elections could cause some polling sites
to run short (and raise tempers). If INEC does not resolve
some of its problems by the April 19 elections, the quality
and efficiency of the Presidential ballot could be
questioned.





11. (U) RECOMMENDATIONS: It is not too late for INEC to
succeed. It needs at a minimum to:


-- improve it delivery schedule to ensure polling stations
open on time;


-- issue radio clarifications during the week and produce
a "cheat-sheet" to provide the basic guidelines for voting;


-- ensure that poll agents understand the need for secrecy
in balloting; and


-- clarify and improve the tabulation and collation
process.
JETER