NIGERIA: INEC UNREADY AS BUHARI AND OBASANJO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000681

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INEC UNREADY AS BUHARI AND OBASANJO
CONTEST IN CLOSE RACE IN BENUE

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: POLOFF visited local party officials,
domestic and international election monitors,
academics, and local INEC officials during an April 3-
4 trip to Benue State. Most believed violence is
likely if electoral manipulation is obvious. Only a
few people believed INEC is prepared for the election.
Conversations confirmed that President Obasanjo is
still highly unpopular among significant numbers of
the Tiv, Benue's largest and one of Nigeria's biggest,
ethnic groups, because of the October 2001 massacre of
over 200 civilians at Zaki-Biam. Obasanjo may win
Benue, but his victory is not assured. Despite his
recent illness and convalescence in Europe, PDP
Governor George Akume is likely to be reelected. END
SUMMARY.



2. (C) On April 4, POLOFF paid an unannounced visit
to the Makurdi INEC headquarters. The lack of
activity at the office was surprising considering less
than a week remained before the National Assembly
election. Nevertheless, INEC officials claimed they
were ready and they did not expect problems on
election day. POLOFF noted 20 cardboard boxes of
election materials drying in the sun after being
soaked in the pervious night's rain. The INEC
administrative officer explained that these were
pamphlets and other "non-sensitive" materials. He
said the actual ballots and other tamper prone items
were under lock and key at the Central Bank branch and
would be delivered to polling places on the morning of
the election. Despite the poor condition of their
vehicular "fleet," the INEC officials expected to have
no trouble delivering the ballots on time so that the
polls could open as scheduled.



3. (C) INEC's optimism was extreme, but not
infectious. Most other interlocutors were
pessimistic. Opposition party members and election
monitors worried that rigging in certain Local
Government Areas (LGAs) (specifically, Kwande,
Katsina-Ala, Tarka and Gboko) would spark violence.
Both Nigerian and international election monitors
worried that the governing Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) would attempt to manipulate the vote in the ANPP
or UNPP strongholds within the state.



4. (C) Conversations with Tiv, Jukun and Idoma
politicians, election monitors, and academics revealed
that President Obasanjo remains unpopular among the
populous Tiv because of the October 2001 Zaki-Biam
massacre. The Tiv blame Minister of Defense T.Y.
Danjuma, a Jukun, for Zaki-Biam. By extension, they
blame Obasanjo. The comment "a vote for Obasanjo is a
vote for Danjuma" was made often. Former Chief of
Defense Staff Gen. (Ret.) Victor Malu, whose home was
burned and relatives killed during the violence at
Zaki-Biam, been campaigning against Obasanjo.



5. (C) Although from a different ethnic group in
another state, Vice President Atiku was given an
important traditional honorary title by the Tiv and
enjoys wide popularity, however, his positive standing
is insufficient to diminish Tiv anger. While Obasanjo
may yet win in Benue, he cannot count on a large
margin. He will have to win significant Tiv votes,
then count on the Jukun and Idoma to carry him. With
PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh being Idoma, Obasanjo
will count on strong support from that quarter.



6. (C) On the other hand, ANPP Presidential candidate
Muhammadu Buhari has encountered some friction from
the prickly Tivs. When he attempted to campaign in
Benue a few months ago, some Tiv leaders cautioned him
to bypass the state. They said many Tivs were angered
when stones were thrown at Vice President Atiku's
motorcade at an event in Kano late last year. They
blamed Buhari supporters for Atiku's rough treatment
and warned Buhari might get similar treatment if he
came to Benue.



7. (C) The gubernatorial race features the incumbent
George Akume (PDP) and challengers Paul Urongo (ANPP)
and Mike Mku (UNPP). Despite his recent illness and
convalescence in Europe, Akume is likely to hang on to
his position in a close race with Urongo.



8. (C) COMMENT: The problems INEC faces in Benue are
not unique. Few outside INEC's own offices believe
its administrators and its newly trained poll workers
are prepared for the elections. Obasanjo will be in a
competitive battle with Buhari to capture this
populous state. Obasanjo will hope that the
antagonistic Tiv will stay home rather than vote for
Buhari. If so, Obasanjo's assured support among the
Idoma and Jukun should write his ticket. END COMMENT.


JETER