Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA674
2003-04-11 19:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ON APRIL 12
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000674
SIPDIS
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ON APRIL 12
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000674
SIPDIS
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ON APRIL 12
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The April 12 National Assembly
elections will demonstrate if the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) was right when it said it
was ready to hold these and the April 19 gubernatorial
and presidential polls. In addition to being a
logistical "dry run" for the April 19 polls, the
National Assembly elections will indicate the
prevailing political mood. We believe the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) will lose some seats.
Increased competition resulting from the entry of new
political parties and unbridled aisle-crossing by
incumbents who lost primaries will diminish today's
substantial PDP majority. However, if the PDP loses
too many seats, "bandwagon effect" for the opposition
could develop, spelling trouble for President Obasanjo
the following week. END SUMMARY.
--------------
PDP Majority Likely To Diminish
--------------
2. (C) The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP)
originally had a majority of 73 seats out of 109 (67
percent) in the Senate and 216 seats out of 359 (60
percent) in the House. However, there will be many
new faces in the next National Assembly. The current
National Assembly did not distinguish itself as a law-
making body. Most Nigerians saw it as venal,
indifferent, and ineffective. Some legislators from
all three parties in the National Assembly (PDP, ANPP
and AD) declined to seek party renomination because of
their unpopularity, others found their renominations
stymied by antagonistic governors. Within the PDP,
the Presidency and PDP National Executive teamed to
foil the reelection ambitions of many other National
Assembly incumbents who had supported the impeachment
threat against President Obasanjo or had managed
through other means to get on the President's bad
side. Only 30 percent of PDP incumbents were
renominated by the PDP.
--------------
Citizens Frustrated
--------------
3. (SBU) Given the PDP's sizeable numerical advantage
some "leveling" was expected, under even the best
circumstances. However, current political and
economic conditions have citizens seething. Lengthy
queues for petrol have become a symbol of a general malaise
of ills. Almost any incumbent would be nervous under
these emergent conditions, but the PDP will bear the
brunt of the electoral disaffection over a stagnant
economy, deteriorating public infrastructure (schools,
roads, hospitals, utilities),endemic corruption,
widespread communal violence and the failure of all
levels of government to meet their financial
obligations. After all, the ruling party has
controlled the Presidency, 21 of 36 governorships and
both Houses of the National Assembly for nearly four
years.
--------------
More Competition
--------------
4. (SBU) Moreover, competition has been more intense
than in 1999. The fact that the number of parties has
increased from 3 to 30 since the last election means
the PDP will likely have a reduced share of the pie
this time around. Credible candidates who were
reluctant to run in 1999 (perhaps because they feared
the Fourth Republic would quickly vanish) have changed
their minds. Many of these candidates are running
under the banner of opposition parties. Some of the
new parties, such as the Igbo-dominated All People's
Grand Alliance (APGA),would have trouble winning the
Presidency but can field popular candidates in some
races on their home turf. These smaller parties can
give both the PDP and the main opposition All Nigerian
People's Party (ANPP) a real run for popular votes.
--------------
Opposition from Governors and the Presidency
--------------
5. (C) Another factor is that the advantages of
incumbency are much weaker for National Assembly
members than Governors or the President. Again,
because the PDP has such a large majority, it must
defend more seats. Finally, popular PDP incumbents
who ran afoul of their governors or the Presidency
typically found themselves denied renomination.
Governors used their control of the PDP apparatus in
their states to defeat political opponents during
party caucuses late last year. The Presidency more
than once weighed in with governors and other state-
level officials to stymie its opponents.
6. (C) Three of the four senior officers of the
National Assembly might not return. Having lost a
battle for control of the Ebonyi PDP to Governor Sam
Egwu and having failed in his effort to impeach
Obasanjo for his support of Egwu, Senate President
Anyim decided not to seek re-election. Speaker of the
House Ghali Umar Na'Abba was able to secure
renomination despite Governor Kwankwaso's and
Obasanjo's opposition because of overwhelming popular
support for Na'Abba in his Kano constituency.
However, the Kano PDP recently expelled Na'Abba for
"anti-party" activity, an action that would have
forfeited the seat. Sensing trouble, the national PDP
decided to "suspend" Na'Abba, so his post-election
fate is far from clear, even if he wins his
constituency. Deputy House Speaker Prince Chibudom
Nwuche's primary challenge failed to unseat Rivers
Governor Peter Odili, a strong Obasanjo ally. Among
the top four National Assembly officers, only Deputy
Senate President Ibrahim Mantu (another Obasanjo ally)
seems certain to return.
--------------
Crossing the Aisle
--------------
7. (SBU) Popular politicians cast aside by the PDP
often joined another party. Nwuche pitched his tent
with the ANPP, as did former Senate President
Okadigbo. Nwuche continues to run for the Rivers
governorship and Okadigbo is now Buhari's running mate
on the ANPP Presidential ticket. Other PDP National
Assembly members are seeking to return on the ticket
of another party.
--------------
Comment
--------------
8. (C) INEC plans to formally announce the results of
the National Assembly elections on April 17, two days
prior to the presidential contest. Informal but
accurate results may be known before then. The timing
of the results' announcement is extremely important.
If the results are actually announced prior to April
19, the legislative elections may take on aspects akin
to a "vote of confidence" or a referendum on the
President. The PDP is expected to lose seats.
However, losing too many seats, particularly in areas
where the PDP was assumed to be strong, will be
perceived as a shift in electoral momentum heading
into the Presidential campaign. It will be taken as
evidence that Obasanjo's strength is waning and could
produce a "bandwagon effect" away from the PDP. The
principal beneficiary of this phenomenon would be ANPP
Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari.
JETER
SIPDIS
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ON APRIL 12
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The April 12 National Assembly
elections will demonstrate if the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) was right when it said it
was ready to hold these and the April 19 gubernatorial
and presidential polls. In addition to being a
logistical "dry run" for the April 19 polls, the
National Assembly elections will indicate the
prevailing political mood. We believe the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) will lose some seats.
Increased competition resulting from the entry of new
political parties and unbridled aisle-crossing by
incumbents who lost primaries will diminish today's
substantial PDP majority. However, if the PDP loses
too many seats, "bandwagon effect" for the opposition
could develop, spelling trouble for President Obasanjo
the following week. END SUMMARY.
--------------
PDP Majority Likely To Diminish
--------------
2. (C) The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP)
originally had a majority of 73 seats out of 109 (67
percent) in the Senate and 216 seats out of 359 (60
percent) in the House. However, there will be many
new faces in the next National Assembly. The current
National Assembly did not distinguish itself as a law-
making body. Most Nigerians saw it as venal,
indifferent, and ineffective. Some legislators from
all three parties in the National Assembly (PDP, ANPP
and AD) declined to seek party renomination because of
their unpopularity, others found their renominations
stymied by antagonistic governors. Within the PDP,
the Presidency and PDP National Executive teamed to
foil the reelection ambitions of many other National
Assembly incumbents who had supported the impeachment
threat against President Obasanjo or had managed
through other means to get on the President's bad
side. Only 30 percent of PDP incumbents were
renominated by the PDP.
--------------
Citizens Frustrated
--------------
3. (SBU) Given the PDP's sizeable numerical advantage
some "leveling" was expected, under even the best
circumstances. However, current political and
economic conditions have citizens seething. Lengthy
queues for petrol have become a symbol of a general malaise
of ills. Almost any incumbent would be nervous under
these emergent conditions, but the PDP will bear the
brunt of the electoral disaffection over a stagnant
economy, deteriorating public infrastructure (schools,
roads, hospitals, utilities),endemic corruption,
widespread communal violence and the failure of all
levels of government to meet their financial
obligations. After all, the ruling party has
controlled the Presidency, 21 of 36 governorships and
both Houses of the National Assembly for nearly four
years.
--------------
More Competition
--------------
4. (SBU) Moreover, competition has been more intense
than in 1999. The fact that the number of parties has
increased from 3 to 30 since the last election means
the PDP will likely have a reduced share of the pie
this time around. Credible candidates who were
reluctant to run in 1999 (perhaps because they feared
the Fourth Republic would quickly vanish) have changed
their minds. Many of these candidates are running
under the banner of opposition parties. Some of the
new parties, such as the Igbo-dominated All People's
Grand Alliance (APGA),would have trouble winning the
Presidency but can field popular candidates in some
races on their home turf. These smaller parties can
give both the PDP and the main opposition All Nigerian
People's Party (ANPP) a real run for popular votes.
--------------
Opposition from Governors and the Presidency
--------------
5. (C) Another factor is that the advantages of
incumbency are much weaker for National Assembly
members than Governors or the President. Again,
because the PDP has such a large majority, it must
defend more seats. Finally, popular PDP incumbents
who ran afoul of their governors or the Presidency
typically found themselves denied renomination.
Governors used their control of the PDP apparatus in
their states to defeat political opponents during
party caucuses late last year. The Presidency more
than once weighed in with governors and other state-
level officials to stymie its opponents.
6. (C) Three of the four senior officers of the
National Assembly might not return. Having lost a
battle for control of the Ebonyi PDP to Governor Sam
Egwu and having failed in his effort to impeach
Obasanjo for his support of Egwu, Senate President
Anyim decided not to seek re-election. Speaker of the
House Ghali Umar Na'Abba was able to secure
renomination despite Governor Kwankwaso's and
Obasanjo's opposition because of overwhelming popular
support for Na'Abba in his Kano constituency.
However, the Kano PDP recently expelled Na'Abba for
"anti-party" activity, an action that would have
forfeited the seat. Sensing trouble, the national PDP
decided to "suspend" Na'Abba, so his post-election
fate is far from clear, even if he wins his
constituency. Deputy House Speaker Prince Chibudom
Nwuche's primary challenge failed to unseat Rivers
Governor Peter Odili, a strong Obasanjo ally. Among
the top four National Assembly officers, only Deputy
Senate President Ibrahim Mantu (another Obasanjo ally)
seems certain to return.
--------------
Crossing the Aisle
--------------
7. (SBU) Popular politicians cast aside by the PDP
often joined another party. Nwuche pitched his tent
with the ANPP, as did former Senate President
Okadigbo. Nwuche continues to run for the Rivers
governorship and Okadigbo is now Buhari's running mate
on the ANPP Presidential ticket. Other PDP National
Assembly members are seeking to return on the ticket
of another party.
--------------
Comment
--------------
8. (C) INEC plans to formally announce the results of
the National Assembly elections on April 17, two days
prior to the presidential contest. Informal but
accurate results may be known before then. The timing
of the results' announcement is extremely important.
If the results are actually announced prior to April
19, the legislative elections may take on aspects akin
to a "vote of confidence" or a referendum on the
President. The PDP is expected to lose seats.
However, losing too many seats, particularly in areas
where the PDP was assumed to be strong, will be
perceived as a shift in electoral momentum heading
into the Presidential campaign. It will be taken as
evidence that Obasanjo's strength is waning and could
produce a "bandwagon effect" away from the PDP. The
principal beneficiary of this phenomenon would be ANPP
Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari.
JETER