Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA669
2003-04-11 12:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
NIGERIA: MEETING WITH PDP CHAIRMAN
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000669
SIPDIS
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MEETING WITH PDP CHAIRMAN
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000669
SIPDIS
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MEETING WITH PDP CHAIRMAN
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met with People's
Democratic Party (PDP) National Chairman Audu Ogbeh on
Wednesday April 9. The two discussed the upcoming elections
and the ruling party's prospects, as well as the anti-
violence Code of Conduct for the parties and INEC's
preparedness. Ogbeh agreed to sign the Code of Conduct and
promised he would try to do so jointly with the opposition
ANPP. END SUMMARY.
--------------
IS EVERYTHING READY?
--------------
2. (C) PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh opposed the idea of
a postponement of elections. (NOTE: Several opposition
parties have been advocating that a delay was needed because
of their concern about The Independent National Electoral
Commission's (INEC) preparedness for conducting the
elections. END NOTE) The constitution declares that all
office holders must relinquish their authority at midnight
on May 28. If the elections are not held and a new
Administration not sworn in on May 29, the government would
be operating with no constitutional authority. Such an
extra-constitutional "remedy" would set a hugely negative
precedent for Nigeria and the rest of Africa.
3. (C) Ogbeh admitted INEC had numerous problems but said it
was in a position to hold the elections. The voters'
register has been displayed, and the parties are set to
receive CD-ROMs of the voters roll this week. Ogbeh felt
that one reason many Nigerians have disparaged INEC was that
most people have not traveled to their wards to inspect the
lists themselves. Another problem, Ogbeh said, is the space
for the thumbprint on the ballots. During Ogbeh's meeting
with INEC and other parties the day before, he said it was
agreed that the index finger rather than the thumb could be
used for marking the ballot.
--------------
PDP'S CHANCES
--------------
4. (C) Ogbeh thought the PDP campaign was doing very well,
better than other parties. However, he predicted violence
in Lagos and Benue. Other states where violence could occur
are Akwa-Ibom, Cross River, Kwara and Plateau. He predicted
there would be no violence in Kano or Kaduna.
5. (C) In the Muslim North, Ogbeh predicted President
Obasanjo would win in Kano and Kebbi, with Katsina a toss-up
between the President and Buhari. He also predicted that
two-thirds of the South-East would vote for Obasanjo. With
Obasanjo doing well in the South-East and in some Northern
states, Ogbeh was confident of victory, expecting 60 to 65
percent of the overall vote on the first ballot; there would
be no run-off. In gubernatorial elections, he predicted PDP
losses in Anambra and Borno, with Plateau a possibility;
however, the PDP would make gains in Oyo, Ekiti and Osun,
and possibly Ogun. Ogbeh admitted that too many PDP gains
in the South-West would cause problems, as the area had been
exclusively controlled by the Alliance for Democracy Party
(AD). However, the AD could no longer argue that the South-
West should be its exclusive preserve since the AD itself
was contesting elections in Borno, Benue, Anambra and
Plateau. This abrogated any prior PDP assurances that it
would not contest in the South-West.
--------------
CODE OF CONDUCT
--------------
6. (C) Ambassador Jeter asked that the PDP sign the INEC
Code of Conduct. The Code had been signed by all but four
of the 30 parties. Two of the four were the PDP and ANPP,
the main opposition. Jeter stressed that signing the Code
was symbolically important for the entire nation. This
would have even greater impact if the PDP and ANPP signed
together. Ogbeh agreed and promised to get in touch with
ANPP Chairman Etiebet to request that the two party chairmen
sign together the next day.
7. COMMENT: Despite a merciless campaign schedule, Chairman
Ogbeh was relaxed throughout the meeting and appeared
genuinely confident that Obasanjo would retain the
Presidency. His measurement of Obasanjo's strength in the
North does not completely tally with ours. However, Ogbeh's
assessment of the gubernatorial races seemed objective and
realistic. Ogbeh's agreement to sign the Code of Conduct
was welcome news. Although late in the game, anything that
can be done to discourage violence and encourage responsible
political behavior will help.
JETER
SIPDIS
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MEETING WITH PDP CHAIRMAN
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(d).
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met with People's
Democratic Party (PDP) National Chairman Audu Ogbeh on
Wednesday April 9. The two discussed the upcoming elections
and the ruling party's prospects, as well as the anti-
violence Code of Conduct for the parties and INEC's
preparedness. Ogbeh agreed to sign the Code of Conduct and
promised he would try to do so jointly with the opposition
ANPP. END SUMMARY.
--------------
IS EVERYTHING READY?
--------------
2. (C) PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh opposed the idea of
a postponement of elections. (NOTE: Several opposition
parties have been advocating that a delay was needed because
of their concern about The Independent National Electoral
Commission's (INEC) preparedness for conducting the
elections. END NOTE) The constitution declares that all
office holders must relinquish their authority at midnight
on May 28. If the elections are not held and a new
Administration not sworn in on May 29, the government would
be operating with no constitutional authority. Such an
extra-constitutional "remedy" would set a hugely negative
precedent for Nigeria and the rest of Africa.
3. (C) Ogbeh admitted INEC had numerous problems but said it
was in a position to hold the elections. The voters'
register has been displayed, and the parties are set to
receive CD-ROMs of the voters roll this week. Ogbeh felt
that one reason many Nigerians have disparaged INEC was that
most people have not traveled to their wards to inspect the
lists themselves. Another problem, Ogbeh said, is the space
for the thumbprint on the ballots. During Ogbeh's meeting
with INEC and other parties the day before, he said it was
agreed that the index finger rather than the thumb could be
used for marking the ballot.
--------------
PDP'S CHANCES
--------------
4. (C) Ogbeh thought the PDP campaign was doing very well,
better than other parties. However, he predicted violence
in Lagos and Benue. Other states where violence could occur
are Akwa-Ibom, Cross River, Kwara and Plateau. He predicted
there would be no violence in Kano or Kaduna.
5. (C) In the Muslim North, Ogbeh predicted President
Obasanjo would win in Kano and Kebbi, with Katsina a toss-up
between the President and Buhari. He also predicted that
two-thirds of the South-East would vote for Obasanjo. With
Obasanjo doing well in the South-East and in some Northern
states, Ogbeh was confident of victory, expecting 60 to 65
percent of the overall vote on the first ballot; there would
be no run-off. In gubernatorial elections, he predicted PDP
losses in Anambra and Borno, with Plateau a possibility;
however, the PDP would make gains in Oyo, Ekiti and Osun,
and possibly Ogun. Ogbeh admitted that too many PDP gains
in the South-West would cause problems, as the area had been
exclusively controlled by the Alliance for Democracy Party
(AD). However, the AD could no longer argue that the South-
West should be its exclusive preserve since the AD itself
was contesting elections in Borno, Benue, Anambra and
Plateau. This abrogated any prior PDP assurances that it
would not contest in the South-West.
--------------
CODE OF CONDUCT
--------------
6. (C) Ambassador Jeter asked that the PDP sign the INEC
Code of Conduct. The Code had been signed by all but four
of the 30 parties. Two of the four were the PDP and ANPP,
the main opposition. Jeter stressed that signing the Code
was symbolically important for the entire nation. This
would have even greater impact if the PDP and ANPP signed
together. Ogbeh agreed and promised to get in touch with
ANPP Chairman Etiebet to request that the two party chairmen
sign together the next day.
7. COMMENT: Despite a merciless campaign schedule, Chairman
Ogbeh was relaxed throughout the meeting and appeared
genuinely confident that Obasanjo would retain the
Presidency. His measurement of Obasanjo's strength in the
North does not completely tally with ours. However, Ogbeh's
assessment of the gubernatorial races seemed objective and
realistic. Ogbeh's agreement to sign the Code of Conduct
was welcome news. Although late in the game, anything that
can be done to discourage violence and encourage responsible
political behavior will help.
JETER