RIVERS STATE VIOLENCE COULD IMPACT OIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000666

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR AF/W AND DRL


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EPET NI
SUBJECT: RIVERS STATE VIOLENCE COULD IMPACT OIL


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter for Reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d).


1.(C) In an April 4 conversation with Embassy CRO, Movement
for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) representative
Chris Newsom (New Zealand national),warned of a dramatic
increase in electoral violence in Rivers State due primarily
to hotly contested gubernatorial and local races. According
to Newsom, violence against opposition ANPP candidates had
reached very serious levels. Only a few of the more dramatic
examples of this have reached the international media (e.g.
the March 29 attack on an ANPP rally in Baraka, a few
kilometers outside of Port Harcourt). However, thugs
frequently disrupted ANPP rallies, but these incidents go
unreported, he claimed.


2.(C) Newsom predicted that the aftermath of the election
will be a continuation of the violence that preceded it.
Whoever wins, the loser will be angry and blame his loss on
the victor's fraudulent influences over the election.
Ethnicity will play a role in this because Governor Odili
knows the Ogoni oppose his return. Newsom also echoed a
familiar refrain heard among the opposition: the Governor,
Deputy Governor and National Assemby members will fight tooth
and nail to retain office so that they can ensure their
immunity from prosecution.


3.(SBU) On April 9 CRO visited ANPP gubernatorial candidate
Chief Sergeant Awuse in Mgbuetor, on the outskirts of Port
Harcourt. Awuse was angry about reports received only an
hour earlier of an attack on houses in Mgbeutor, including
the houses of his relatives and his personal assistant.
Awuse claimed this attack was carried out by PDP supporters.
CRO later visited the affected neighborhood, taking
photographs of the damaged buildings and vehicles (digital
vehicles will be e-mailed to DRL and AF/W).


4.(C) According to several residents interviewed,
approximately 20 young men from neighboring villages came in
with guns, large sticks and knives and began breaking
windows, doors, appliances and furniture in the houses. The
attackers reportedly told the residents they would be back
that night to inflict more damage. CRO saw several residents
packing personal belongings into vehicles, saying they were
afraid to remain in the village. Some residents claimed the
attackers were looking for Awuse personal assistant. Visibly
enraged by the attack on his and his parents' home, the
assistant stated that he could "not let this attack go
without a response." "His boys" would counter-attack, he
vowed.


5.(C) Newsom claimed that established civil society groups in
Port Harcourt are pessimistic about peaceful elections in
Rivers. He said Rivers indigenes were watching the Warri
crisis closely. People were predicting that the electoral
violence and underlying tensions could erupt into an outburst
similar to Warri -- where a group might try to shut-down oil
production in an attempt to advance their cause.


Comment
--------------
6.(C) Newsom is a relative newcomer to Nigeria and is wedded
to MOSOP, the best known and most influential , but not the
only community organization among the Ogoni. There is no
love lost between MOSOP and Governor Odili and, by extension,
between MOSOP and most of the PDP in the state. Thus, what
Newsom says must be taken with a grain of salt. His general
characterization of political violence in Rivers State is
accurate but the instigation of it is not as one-sided as
Newsom described.


7.(C) Talk among local thugs about shutting down oil
production maybe be braggadocio or an attempt to extort local
authorities and the oil companies; however, such talk cannot
be dismissed summarily. As both we and the GON have fear,
the situation in Warrai could be repeated elsewhere in the
volatile Niger Delta.
JETER