NIGERIA: SPECTRE OF VIOLENCE OVER PLATEAU ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000661

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SPECTRE OF VIOLENCE OVER PLATEAU ELECTIONS

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Residents in Plateau State are fearful
that April 12 and 19 elections will generate violence.
Disappointed with incumbent PDP Governor Joshua Dariye,
many are looking to the ANPP and AD candidates for a
change. The local elite, political power brokers, workers
and a disaffected faction of the PDP are all working
against a Dariye administration widely viewed as
ineffective and incompetent. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) With gubernatorial races set for April 19, Plateau
residents are worried that a tight race could spark
violence. Governor Joshua Dariye is a sub-par politician
whose administration of the state's affairs leaves much to
be desired. He has been combative, refusing to reach out
to many established personalities and traditional rulers.
In a state with a pluralistic demography and a strong
Muslim minority, he has fueled ethnic/religious animosity
by his strident Christianity. Although Dariye is weak, he
could still eke by. Dariye has been an Obasanjo
cheerleader and although Obasanjo realizes Dariye's
shortcomings, the President has begrudgingly decided to
support the Governor. PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh
told the Ambassador recently that Dariye was "on his knees"
in his office pleading for his re-nomination. The ANPP and
the AD candidates' inability to present a united anti-
Dariye front could open the door to his narrow victory.



3. (C) The ANPP's Jonah Jang, a retired Air Force
officer, is supported by many retired general officers who
call Plateau home. Jang, an ethnic Birom, also has the
support of ANPP's zonal vice-president and former Abacha
right-hand retired General Jeremiah Useni. The AD's
Damishi Sango, a former Minister of Sports, narrowly lost
the PDP nomination to Dariye in 1999. At that time, he
showed party loyalty by encouraging his supporters to back
Dariye. But since then, Sango had fallen out with both
Obasanjo and Dariye. Finding the grass greener in the AD,
Sango feels he can win back what he narrowly lost in 1999.
Plateau political broker and former PDP national chairman
Solomon Lar dislikes Dariye and is apparently supporting
Sango.



4. (U) Complaints about the current administration are
widespread. State employees have not been paid for months;
many resort to hiring out their personal vehicles for
commercial activities in order to survive. To make matters
worse, Dariye clumsily stated last year that the "payment
of salaries is not a priority of my administration." This
was not a statement that endeared the Governor to those who
vote. Critics claim that no single state or federal
project instituted by Dariye has been commissioned during
his term of office. With its increased population, the
capital city Jos has a water problem that Dariye has been
unable to conquer or suggest a plausible solution.



5. (C) Dariye's unpopularity is such that he actually may
be hurting Obasanjo's prospects in Plateau. During a
recent campaign visit, ANPP Presidential Candidate
Muhammadu Buhari arrived by road from neighboring Bauchi
state and encountered crowds on the way to Jos. Dariye's
security operatives intercepted the motorcade at the edge
of town and tried to divert the vehicles away from
downtown. According to witnesses, the crowd lifted
Buhari's Land Rover and carried it over the roadblocks. At
this point, the security forces relented and Buhari's
entourage was allowed to pass through central Jos, where
the streets were lined with thousands of onlookers.



6. (C) Allegations of Dariye's efforts to stack the
elections in his favor abound. Detractors claim he has
allegedly bribed many INEC officials and security agents to
ensure his victory on election day. One INEC official was
reportedly removed from Plateau state for refusing to
cooperate. Opponents claim that Dariye has also vetted the
voters lists, removing names of his opponents' supporters.
ANPP officials claim that Dariye was behind an effort to
remove other candidates' names from the voters list,
rendering them ineligible. While that failed, questions
about the voters list remain.



7. (C) COMMENT: In the past, Plateau State had been a
model of ethnic and religious diversity, social tolerance
and harmony. In the last two years, Plateau and its
capital, Jos, have become synonymous with communal
violence. Governor Dariye has been ineffectual in
arresting this descent and may be a contributing factor to
his state's demise. Because of his poor track record, his
re-election is far from assured. He may also have saddled
President Obasanjo with many of his troubles in Plateau.
Support for Buhari signifies that victory in Plateau is not
guaranteed for Obasanjo. However, Obasanjo is banking on
the Christian majority sticking with him, support from the
AD, and the power of incumbency to prevail.
JETER