NIGERIA: HEADCOUNT OF POLITICALLY MOTIVATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000582

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: HEADCOUNT OF POLITICALLY MOTIVATED
KILLINGS


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons: 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (SBU) Violence is an integral part of the Nigerian
electoral scene. In recent weeks,
the pace has picked up, with confirmed incidents of violence
occurring in at least 24 of
Nigeria's 36 states. The incidents range from rock-throwing
at the motorcades of elected
officials to midnight assassinations of key political
figures. The political scene was
rocked by the March 5 killing of the opposition ANPP
supporter Marshall Harry in Abuja
three days before he was to have launched the campaign for
presidential candidate retired
General Muhammadu Buhari in Rivers State.



2. (U) The following is a partial list of politically
motivated murders and near misses
over the last two years in Nigeria.


- Governor James Ibori escaped from a gun battle between two
factions of the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) on February 4, 2001.
- Momoh Lawal, a relative of Umar Akaaba, former Chairman,
Okene LGA in Kogi
State, killed on March 5, 2001.
- Four killed in Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, when supporters of
National Senate President
Anyim Pius Anyim's clashed with those of Governor Sam Egwu's
on August 24, 2001.
- Victor Nwankwo, younger brother of Arthur Nwankwo, founder,
Eastern Mandate
Union (EMU),murdered on August 29, 2001.
- Monday Ndor, Rivers State legislator, killed in Port
Harcourt in August 2001.
- Odunayo Olagbaju, Osun State legislator, killed in Ile-Ife
on December 21, 2001.
- Chief Bola Ige, Attorney-General and Minister of Justice,
murdered on December 23,

2001.
- Janet Oladape, a PDP leader in Ondo State, clubbed to death
on August 13, 2002.
- Alhaji Ahmed Pategi, Kwara State Chairman, PDP, murdered in
Kogi State, on August
15, 2002. Kola Kasum, his predecessor, was killed earlier in
the year.
- Barnabas Igwe, Chairman of the Nigeria Bar Association, and
his wife, Abigail Igwe,
murdered on September 1, 2002.
- Chimere Ikoku, former Vice Chancellor, University of
Nigeria-Nsukka, killed in his
residence in Enugu on October 20, 2002.
- Dele Arojo, PDP gubernatorial aspirant, killed by unknown
assailants in Lagos on
November 25, 2002.
- In December 2002, Alhaji Isyaku Muhammad, United Nigeria
Peoples Party (UNPP)
North-West vice chairman, was assassinated.
- One ANPP Chief killed in Ibadan, Oyo State capital in an
intra-party clash, January 13,

2003.
- On February 8, 2003 Chief Ogbonnaya Uche, All Nigeria
People's Party (ANPP)
senatorial candidate in Imo State, was assassinated.
- Mr. Theodore A. Agwatu, Principal Secretary to the Governor
of Imo State, killed in
February 2003.
- On February 18, 2003, a security man in the residence of
Paul Unongo, ANPP
gubernatorial candidate in Benue State, was murdered by
unknown gunmen while
Unongo escaped.
- On February 20, 2003, PDP gubernatorial candidate in Kwara
State, Bukola Saraki,
escaped an assassination attempt.
- On February 23, 2003, the Speaker of the Borno State House
of Assembly, Inuwa
Kubo, escaped an assassination attempt.
- March 5, 2003, Dr. Marshal Harry, South-South ANPP
vice-chairman, was murdered.
- Mrs. Emily Omope, an Alliance for Democracy (AD) member,
died on March 3, 2003
from wounds incurred in an acid attack in December 2002 by
unknown persons.



3. (SBU) Unsurprisingly, most of these attacks have
occurred in the southern part of the
country. However, the few incidents in the North show that
the potential for violence is
not limited to a particular region of the country. The most
recent trend is attacks on
ANPP supporters who abandoned the ruling PDP to improve their
electoral chances.
Still, no party is immune to these attacks.



4. (C) Violence in Nigerian elections has been present
since the country gained
independence and will continue to make up a part of the
political landscape for some time
to come. However, violence in the past has usually involved
confrontations between
groups of thugs hired by contending politicians or their
financial backers. The thugs and
innocent bystanders have been the major victims. The
difference this time is that a
significant number of real political players have been
attacked, engendering an acute and
growing sense of insecurity among the political elites --
something that has not been
observed in previous electoral cycles. We expect the pattern
of attacks to continue
through and after the elections as various politicians
attempt to secure position and settle
scores in a political process short on democratic input among
the masses and long on
potential financial gains for the victors.
JETER