NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 28

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000420

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 28

Ref: a) Abuja 404
b) Abuja 291


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5
(b)and(d).



1. (U) This periodic joint political report from Abuja and
Lagos includes:
--Political Violence Update
--Potential Party Coalition
--Will AD Support Obasanjo?
--ID Card Registration
--Sharia Amputation in Jigawa
--Traditional Ruler to be Prosecuted


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Political Violence Update
--------------



2. (SBU) The convention honeymoon, a period of time with
little to no violence, is over. An upswing in violence
throughout the country is now reaching levels we had
anticipated earlier. Ref A details much of the last three
weeks of violence in Kwara State. In addition, there are
reports of as many as 45 persons killed and scores of homes
destroyed in Warri in Delta State in two separate waves of
violence two weeks apart. In Benue at least 7 persons were
killed in ANPP-PDP clashes that started on February 18,
apparently related to local government elections. Sporadic
violence, including the burning of homes and offices,
continued for 4 days. Seven people not indigenous to the
area, an ex-LGA chairman, and two chairmanship candidates
were arrested.



3. (SBU) In Owerri, Imo State, Theodore Emeka Agwatu,
Governor Udenwa's Principal Secretary, was murdered on
February 23. His death follows that of ANPP senatorial
candidate Ogbonnaya Chijioke Uche, who died February 10 from
gunshot wounds received three days before. Motives for
Agwatu's death remain unclear. Uche's death is "being
investigated" by the police, who privately blame it on an
internal ANPP feud. Police deny initial press reports that
the case was being treated as an armed robbery gone bad,
although they have not ruled out that possibility. ANPP has
publicly offered 2 million naira for information on the
culprit; the police have a similar reward of 100,000 naira.
Uche defected from the PDP in 2002 and was the immediate
past Commissioner for Lands, Survey, and Urban Planning in
Udenwa's government. His wife and brother reportedly were
"shot at but not hit" the day after Uche was attacked.



4. (C) COMMENT: Not all this violence is directly tied to
elections and electoral politics. The fighting in Warri has
more to do with a struggle between two local power brokers.
END COMMENT.


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POTENTIAL PARTY COALITION
--------------



5. (SBU) There have been at least two other meetings between
representatives of the majority of new parties since Ref B,
but with no resolution. Dr. Alex Ekwueme, the defeated PDP
candidate and one of the only people most feel would have a
chance against Obasanjo, has not indicated that he is
willing to leave the PDP. Ekwueme continues to fight the
PDP's nomination of Obasanjo in court, even though his
original suit was thrown out on a technicality. Chief Gani
Fawehinmi, candidate for the PRP, has been talking to the
press about the possibility of his taking on the role of
coalition candidate, but up to the meeting held on February
27 there has been no public backing of his candidature by
the other parties. Gani's best chance to get the nod is
that, after Alex Ekwueme, he has the highest name
recognition value countrywide of any possible coalition
candidates.


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WILL AD SUPPORT OBASANJO?
--------------



6. (C) As noted in Ref B, in the end, the AD will likely
support Obasanjo. Numerous "secret" meetings have been held
between Obasanjo's camp and that of various factions within
the AD. Some factions within the party are still holding
out against the alliance and have railed against the party
leadership for not choosing their own candidate before the
INEC presidential deadline February 21. The decision is
dragging out and any indication from the PDP that they will
contest against incumbent AD governors could limit the level
of support the AD party structure is able to offer to
Obasanjo.


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ID Card Registration
--------------



7. (C) The National ID Card registration period has started,
with many of the same problems seen during the voter
registration process. After the scheduled two weeks, a
reported 24 million people have been registered, and the
program has already been extended for an additional two
weeks. The process has been marred by numerous stumbling
blocks: limitations on the computerized photograph storage
to 500 pictures at a time, accusations of bribery and the
selling of cards, and strikes by registration workers over
lack of pay, to name a few. In addition, there have been
problems in some Muslim communities with women not willing
to remove facial coverings for pictures, and a mistaken
belief that the traditional henna painting of fingertips
precludes taking thumbprints. A suit has been filed over
the process, which is registering only citizens over the age
of 18 rather than 10 years and up as required by the
implementing legislation.



8. (C) COMMENT: The National ID Card is unlikely to provide
results any more accurate or reliable than the discredited
voter registration process a few months ago. Besides people
being turned away from registration for not knowing their
blood type or having fingers roughened from labor in the
fields or even having an anglicized surname, there seems to
be some public resistance to the program that will likely
skew results further. That said, it has taken more than 20
years and hundreds of millions of dollars to begin this
National I.D. Card program, which seems to be broadly
accepted throughout Nigeria, even in the North which has
traditionally viewed this exercise as a way of undercounting
Northern Nigerians and thereby diminishing their influence
and resource entitlement in Nigeria.
END COMMENT.


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Sharia Amputation in Jigawa
--------------



9. (U) International, but not local, press have reported a
man in Jigawa State being sentenced by a Sharia court to a
cross amputation (right hand and left leg) for stealing.
Haruna Mohammed, a 35-year-old man, was convicted of
stealing 86,000 naira (USD 630) February 20 and was given 30
days to appeal the sentence. His lawyers appealed the
following day. We have not been able to independently
confirm this sentence.


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Traditional Ruler to be Prosecuted
--------------



10. (SBU) In a follow-up to an event reported in the Human
Rights Report for the last two years, the Kaduna State
Government has filed charges against a traditional ruler and
6 others for actions during the riots in Kaduna in October

2001. Alhaji Ahmadu Mohammed Yakubu, the Sarkin Numana,
will be tried on a count of "inciting disturbance," while
the others are being indicted on heavier counts of criminal
conspiracy, unlawful assembly, and rioting.
JETER