Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA404
2003-02-25 15:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: ANPP/PDP FUELED VIOLENCE IN KWARA STATE

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SOCI NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000404 

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL: JMAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ANPP/PDP FUELED VIOLENCE IN KWARA STATE

Classified by DCM T.D. Andrews. Reasons 1.5 (D).


----------
BACKGROUND
----------


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000404

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL: JMAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ANPP/PDP FUELED VIOLENCE IN KWARA STATE

Classified by DCM T.D. Andrews. Reasons 1.5 (D).


--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------



1. (U) Kwara state is located on Nigeria's ethnic and
religious divide and its divisive politics provide a study
of the difficulties facing Nigerian politics in general.
Until the Islamic Jihad in the early 19th century, Ilorin,
the modern capital of Kwara state, was a part of the Oyo
(Yoruba) Empire. With the impending arrival of Usman
Danfodio, the Fulani leader whose two goals were to spread
Islam and expand the Sokoto Caliphate, a Yoruba leader
named Afonja cooperated with the jihadists to wrest the
Kwara region from the south. Afonja's expectation of being
named as the leader of the region was dashed when the
northerners established the Ilorin Emirate and named a
Fulani to head it. Pre-existing Yoruba tribal institutions
were eliminated and the Ilorin Emirate has been ruled by
Fulani since that time.



2. (C) Today's political crisis in Kwara has its roots in
that historical dispute. Dr. Abubakar Olusola (Sola)
Saraki, physician, banker, former senator, one-time
presidential candidate and longtime strongman of Kwara
politics, is a product of the Hausa/Fulani emirate system.
His primary antagonist, Governor Mohammed Lawal claims
descent from Afonja. Lawal, a retired military officer and
a protege of Saraki until shortly after his election in
1999, has made serious efforts to revive the Yoruba tribal
institutions in the state and is slated to oppose Sola's
son, Bukola (Buki),in the 2003 gubernatorial contest.
Providing more spice for this conflict is the presence of
State Commissioner of Police Mohammed Abubakar. Abubakar
was Deputy Commissioner of Police at Lagos' Murtala
Mohammed International Airport in 1998 when a bomb blast
destroyed the office of the airport's Chief Security
Officer. He later made the Abacha-directed announcement
that bomb-making materials were found in the office, over
the objections of State Commissioner of Police Tsav, who
maintained that the claim was false. Coincidentally,
Abubakar was also Commissioner of Police for Plateau State
during the 2002 ethnic violence that claimed dozens of

victims.


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POLITICS AND BETRAYAL
--------------





3. (SBU) One of the issues behind the conflict is the
naming of traditional rulers. Lawal has promoted more than
twenty Yoruba traditional rulers, vowing to "return the
lost status of the Yoruba." Additionally, court challenges
to the nomination of titleholders in the Ilorin Emirate
have come from both Lawal and Ilorin Emir Gambari (a Saraki
supporter),with each seeking to limit the influence of the
other.



4. (C) The fallout between Saraki and Lawal, who won
election on the APP (now ANPP) ticket in 1999, has created
a seismic shift in Kwara's political landscape. Saraki,
along with his son (now the PDP gubernatorial candidate),
several National Assembly members and many supporters,
joined the ruling PDP. Senator Ahmed Zuruq and five
representatives (including Saraki's daughter Gbemisola
Saraki-Fowora) stated that "the expulsion of the Kwara
ANPP's founding fathers" (Sola) led to a loss of "vision
and focus" in Kwara.


--------------
POLITICAL VIOLENCE ESCALATES
--------------



5. (C) In October 2002, violence attributed to political
activities in the state escalated. Candidates of the
Alliance for Democracy (AD) were attacked while en route to
Ilorin within sight of a police station, and several
vehicles were destroyed. According to some witnesses,
Police Commissioner Abubakar was present at the scene of
the attack and instructed his bodyguards not to interfere.



6. (C) Three weeks later, a bomb destroyed the office's of
the Ilorin-based journal "The National Pilot." The paper
is owned by Buki Saraki. Abubakar arrested several close
associates of Lawal and declared others wanted but said he
"could not enter (the Governor's offices) to arrest them."
Regardless of the appropriateness of the arrests, most
observers believe that the bombing was politically
motivated. Three weeks later, Lawal announced that his
government had "uncovered a plot to bomb government
offices," in a probable to shift speculation from his
involvement in the previous attack. In a thinly veiled
accusation of Saraki, he said that the plot was "hatched in
the home of a prominent politician in Ilorin."



7. (SBU) The latest round of violence set off on February
12, with twelve people attacked around Ilorin. According
to one of the victims, his attackers burst into his home in
the middle of the night and cut him with machetes "for
putting campaign posters of Bukola Saraki on our houses."
The Eid al Fitr prayers on February 13 passed peacefully
under an intense security presence, but atypically without
the presence of either the Governor or Dr. Saraki.



8. (C) Elsewhere in the state on the same day, however,
Lawal's motorcade came under attack and one person was
reported killed. He immediately blamed Saraki. At the
same time, a motorcade of Saraki supporters was attacked en
route to Makurdi, capital of Benue state, to attend the
launching of President Olusegun Obasanjo's presidential
campaign. One supporter was reportedly killed with several
others seriously injured. The PDP members involved allege
that the attack on their motorcade was carried out on
instructions from a personal assistant to one of Lawal's
commissioners. According to Bukola Saraki, his group was
attacked by the "Governor's convoy," and the killing took
place with the Governor present.



9. (U) Other sporadic attacks have been reported in Kwara
state. Most incidents apparently start from arguments over
the placing of campaign posters of the candidates. The
Nigerian habit of pasting campaign posters to highway
signs, private property and virtually anything else that
doesn't get out of the way tends to invite clashes over
turf. At least 46 persons have reportedly been injured in
three separate incidents. The clashes have also caused
property and vehicular damage in around Ilorin.



10. (U) On the evening of February 19, Bukola claims that
armed men entered his Maitama residence in Abuja in an
assassination attempt. The four gunmen apparently used a
ladder to scale the fence, cut the concertina wire and
attempted to gain entrance to the residence. Police at the
house discovered the attempt and exchanged gunfire with the
suspects who managed to escape. Saraki was not in the
house at the time.


--------------
COMMENT
--------------



11. (C) The political climate in Kwara (and the rest of
the nation) continues to heat up. Lawal, a former military
man with a widespread reputation for settling his scores by
force, and Sola Saraki, his former political mentor who has
never backed away from a challenge, seem headed toward
further clashes as they and Nigeria's two largest parties
fight to win the governorship. The story in Kwara, while
unique in its historical antecedents, is similar to the
situation in many other states. The move of the Saraki
family to the ruling PDP en masse highlights one of the
problems of Nigerian politics: loyalty to family and clan
are much more important than loyalty to the party. As the
scheduled elections approach, local concerns will begin to
displace the talk about presidential succession and could
heighten the sense of insecurity that is increasing by the
day throughout Nigeria.
JETER