NIGERIA: VP ON CURRENT POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000386

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL:1.6.X6
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VP ON CURRENT POLITICS


REF: ABUJA 0015
ABUJA 0016


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5(d).



1. (C) Summary: Nigeria's Vice President claims his earlier
flirtation with running for President was a ruse to distract
IBB. According to Atiku, the ambitious former military ruler
is now effectively sidelined for 2003. Buhari's base in the
North is narrower than most observers believe, Atiku says,
asserting that he and President Obasanjo will win handily.
Clearly pleased with his pivotal role in securing Obasanjo's
renomination, Atiku looks forward to 2007. Obasanjo still
faces a credibility gap. End Summary.



2. (SBU) Vice President Atiku Abubakar February 7 invited DCM
for communal lunch after Juma'at prayers and then for a brief
private meeting afterward. Atiku was in excellent spirits and
remarked that his health had improved.



3. (C) Agreeing that his own actions had been critical to the
success of the Obasanjo/Atiku ticket at the early January PDP
convention (refs),Atiku reviewed events from his perspective.
He had gone to sleep on Friday night, January 3, when Obasanjo
returned from an unsuccessful visit to the Bauchi delegation
and awakened his number two. The angry delegates had "sent
the President packing," and Obasanjo needed Atiku's support to
salvage the ticket. Violating security regulations in the
interest of showing unity, they drove from rebel delegation to
rebel delegation together in one car.



4. (C) "I had to pity the man," Atiku said. Over and over,
delegates said they would vote for Obasanjo because Atiku
requested them to and despite their anger over Obasanjo's
failure to keep his promises. The Governors also had to be
"brought along," Atiku continued. They wanted firm assurances
(from Atiku) that Obasanjo would "behave differently next time
[in the 2003-2007 term]" than he had heretofore.



5. (C) Atiku felt IBB was significantly diminished in the
wake of the PDP convention (reftels). "At the last minute,"
IBB had called Governor Kure to tell him the Niger delegation
should not vote for Obasanjo and Atiku. Kure declined to
follow his patron's guidance, saying Niger had committed
itself and would not renege. IBB's initiatives during this
electoral cycle were focused on sowing confusion and holding
Atiku down, so that the road would be clear for an IBB win in
2007, Atiku opined; the former military ruler fears Atiku will
be "too powerful" by 2007 if he holds onto the Vice Presidency
for another four years. IBB's failure to have a significant
impact on the PDP's candidate selection process this year will
further weaken him in the run-up to 2007, Atiku added.



6. (C) Atiku asserted that he had been "leading them along"
for seven months, planning all along to stick with Obasanjo
but allowing Obasanjo's adversaries to think they might be
divided. By the time they discovered that Obasanjo and Atiku
were staying together, it was too late for Babangida, Aliyu
Mohammed and others to implement a back-up plan.



7. (C) Atiku said many PDP stalwarts, especially Governors,
pushed him to announce a bid for the Presidential nomination
during the first 36 hours of the convention. He had told them
he could not abandon Obasanjo because doing so would split the
country. "In the end, I am a patriot, and I cannot do that."



8. (C) While agreeing with DCM's assessment that the ultimate
result of the convention and his role in achieving it had
boosted his profile in a political arena where appearances
play a key role, Atiku contended that this did not help him.
"I want to be underestimated; that is how I get things done."



9. (C) Atiku assessed ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu
Buhari's chances as slim. The retired general and former Head
of State has no base outside the Northwest and, therefore,
cannot win. Atiku said he was "blackmailing" politicians and
businessmen from that zone with this "fact," pushing them to
return to the PDP so that the Northwest might contribute to
Obasanjo's victory rather than having to live with the
inevitable despite their best efforts to prevent it.



9. (C) COMMENT: If Atiku truly was "leading them along" for
seven months, then he is an actor of extraordinary skill and
breadth who played deftly nuanced performances before Obasanjo
allies, Obasanjo adversaries and foreign observers alike. We
agree, however, that he benefited from being underestimated,
particularly vis-a-vis Babangida. As concerns that former
Head of State, Atiku's assessment of Babangida's diminution
accords generally with our own. The "Maradonna" of Nigerian
politics appears increasingly desperate to remain relevant -
or at least to make the general public think he is. Having
failed to control the PDP convention from his Minna mansion,
he recently told the media that he had been "born again" and
now supported the idea of a sovereign national conference:
Anything to keep the ball in play. As for Buhari, his base of
strength may be just as narrow as Atiku describes. His hopes
for victory rest, therefore, almost entirely on being able to
exploit fully Obasanjo's loss of political credibility and
popularity. Thus far, however, his close advisors (all true
believers) seem to think that voters will flock to Buhari
simply because he is not Obasanjo (and from the North) and
apparently do not perceive a need to present a positive
agenda. So far, Buhari's Presidential campaign has been
dormant.
JETER