Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA344
2003-02-14 17:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
NIGERIA: OBASANJO ON IRAQ, TERRORISM AND OIL
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000344
SIPDIS
DEPT PLEASE PASS IRAQ COLLECTIVE
E.O. 12958: DECL:02/14/2013
TAGS: PREL PTER EPET NI IZ
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO ON IRAQ, TERRORISM AND OIL
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5(b).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000344
SIPDIS
DEPT PLEASE PASS IRAQ COLLECTIVE
E.O. 12958: DECL:02/14/2013
TAGS: PREL PTER EPET NI IZ
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO ON IRAQ, TERRORISM AND OIL
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5(b).
1. (C) Summary: President Obasanjo February 13 publicly
called for Iraq to disarm peacefully, noting that the US
could not be expected to stand down its forces otherwise.
Recalling South Africa's decision to give up WMD programs,
Obasanjo repeated these points during a private meeting with
Ambassador Jeter and DAS Bridgewater the following day.
Nigeria's President thought the GON could limit and contain
any violent domestic reaction to US military action in Iraq.
Oil production could rise to 2.8 MBD if necessary, Obasanjo
said. End Summary.
--------------
IRAQ MUST DISARM PEACEFULLY OR EXPECT WAR
--------------
2. (U) Responding to media reports of discovery of prohibited
Iraqi ballistic missiles, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo
February 13 told reporters Iraq must comply with UNSCR 1441 or
risk war. Disarming nations of weapons of mass destruction
was a concern of all nations, not just the U.S. It should not
be expected that the U.S., with over 200,000 troops in the
Gulf region, would stand down its forces without a strong
justification.
3. (C) Meeting with Ambassador Jeter and AF DAS Bridgewater
at his residence February 14, Obasanjo reiterated his public
message. He added that South Africa's earlier disarmament
offered Iraq a roadmap.
-------------- --------------
THE WAR AGAINST TERROR IS "A FIGHT FOR ALL OF US"
-------------- --------------
4. (C) Commenting on critics of U.S. policy, Obasanjo said he
saw the U.S. as a country that had thought itself impregnable
now forced to defend itself. The war against terror, he went
on, is a fight for all of us. The UNSC must, however, be the
instrument.
-------------- --------------
GON PROBABLY CAN CONTROL DOMESTIC FUNDAMENTALISTS
-------------- --------------
5. (C) Taking note of Ambassador Bridgewater's expression of
appreciation for Nigeria's support for the war on terrorism,
Obasanjo remarked that Nigeria had to strike a balance among
the interests of various groups. Of particular concern to the
GON were Christian and Muslim fundamentalists. In response to
Ambassador Jeter's question, Obasanjo said the GON was working
to assess the likely internal impact of U.S. military action
in Iraq. The point was being made repeatedly and at all
levels that the problems with Iraq were political, not
religious. He thought that the GON could "control [its] own
fundamentalists internally." Otherwise, "I don't see anything
[coming], but I cannot predict [the future]."
--------------
OIL PRODUCTION SURGE TO 2.8 MBD POSSIBLE
--------------
6. (C) Obasanjo offered that Nigeria could raise its oil
production to 2.8, possibly 2.9, MBD if the need arose. "We
are talking to the oil companies about that," he added.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
7. (C) The GON was caught off-guard by the violent protests
surrounding the Miss World pageant last year. Since that
time, GON security organizations have nipped several nascent
protests in the bud, in Abuja and elsewhere. U.S. military
action in Iraq would present a new level of challenge, and
protests, some of them probably violent, would likely take
place in several Nigerian cities. We are pleased to note that
Obasanjo believes domestic fundamentalists can be contained.
Moreover, the GON's response to the most recent threats of
anti-American protests has been strong. We do not anticipate
a strong GON response to U.S. military action. Depending on
circumstances (e.g., what the inspectors find in coming days,
pronouncements by other governments, and, above all, civilian
casualties),we can anticipate a response ranging from tacit
support to not-very-vocal opposition. The GON will emphasize
that the dispute with Iraq is political and not religious. It
already is employing Muslim Ministers to deliver that point to
target audiences. We believe this and other efforts will help
mitigate violent manifestations of disagreement with U.S.
actions. All the same, we are examining our security posture
and considering what unilateral steps the Embassy and
Consulate General can take to enhance security. We are also
pleased to learn of GON willingness to surge oil production in
the event of conflict. However, we cannot at this time verify
surge capacity.
8. (U) Ambassador Bridgewater cleared this message.
JETER
SIPDIS
DEPT PLEASE PASS IRAQ COLLECTIVE
E.O. 12958: DECL:02/14/2013
TAGS: PREL PTER EPET NI IZ
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO ON IRAQ, TERRORISM AND OIL
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5(b).
1. (C) Summary: President Obasanjo February 13 publicly
called for Iraq to disarm peacefully, noting that the US
could not be expected to stand down its forces otherwise.
Recalling South Africa's decision to give up WMD programs,
Obasanjo repeated these points during a private meeting with
Ambassador Jeter and DAS Bridgewater the following day.
Nigeria's President thought the GON could limit and contain
any violent domestic reaction to US military action in Iraq.
Oil production could rise to 2.8 MBD if necessary, Obasanjo
said. End Summary.
--------------
IRAQ MUST DISARM PEACEFULLY OR EXPECT WAR
--------------
2. (U) Responding to media reports of discovery of prohibited
Iraqi ballistic missiles, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo
February 13 told reporters Iraq must comply with UNSCR 1441 or
risk war. Disarming nations of weapons of mass destruction
was a concern of all nations, not just the U.S. It should not
be expected that the U.S., with over 200,000 troops in the
Gulf region, would stand down its forces without a strong
justification.
3. (C) Meeting with Ambassador Jeter and AF DAS Bridgewater
at his residence February 14, Obasanjo reiterated his public
message. He added that South Africa's earlier disarmament
offered Iraq a roadmap.
-------------- --------------
THE WAR AGAINST TERROR IS "A FIGHT FOR ALL OF US"
-------------- --------------
4. (C) Commenting on critics of U.S. policy, Obasanjo said he
saw the U.S. as a country that had thought itself impregnable
now forced to defend itself. The war against terror, he went
on, is a fight for all of us. The UNSC must, however, be the
instrument.
-------------- --------------
GON PROBABLY CAN CONTROL DOMESTIC FUNDAMENTALISTS
-------------- --------------
5. (C) Taking note of Ambassador Bridgewater's expression of
appreciation for Nigeria's support for the war on terrorism,
Obasanjo remarked that Nigeria had to strike a balance among
the interests of various groups. Of particular concern to the
GON were Christian and Muslim fundamentalists. In response to
Ambassador Jeter's question, Obasanjo said the GON was working
to assess the likely internal impact of U.S. military action
in Iraq. The point was being made repeatedly and at all
levels that the problems with Iraq were political, not
religious. He thought that the GON could "control [its] own
fundamentalists internally." Otherwise, "I don't see anything
[coming], but I cannot predict [the future]."
--------------
OIL PRODUCTION SURGE TO 2.8 MBD POSSIBLE
--------------
6. (C) Obasanjo offered that Nigeria could raise its oil
production to 2.8, possibly 2.9, MBD if the need arose. "We
are talking to the oil companies about that," he added.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
7. (C) The GON was caught off-guard by the violent protests
surrounding the Miss World pageant last year. Since that
time, GON security organizations have nipped several nascent
protests in the bud, in Abuja and elsewhere. U.S. military
action in Iraq would present a new level of challenge, and
protests, some of them probably violent, would likely take
place in several Nigerian cities. We are pleased to note that
Obasanjo believes domestic fundamentalists can be contained.
Moreover, the GON's response to the most recent threats of
anti-American protests has been strong. We do not anticipate
a strong GON response to U.S. military action. Depending on
circumstances (e.g., what the inspectors find in coming days,
pronouncements by other governments, and, above all, civilian
casualties),we can anticipate a response ranging from tacit
support to not-very-vocal opposition. The GON will emphasize
that the dispute with Iraq is political and not religious. It
already is employing Muslim Ministers to deliver that point to
target audiences. We believe this and other efforts will help
mitigate violent manifestations of disagreement with U.S.
actions. All the same, we are examining our security posture
and considering what unilateral steps the Embassy and
Consulate General can take to enhance security. We are also
pleased to learn of GON willingness to surge oil production in
the event of conflict. However, we cannot at this time verify
surge capacity.
8. (U) Ambassador Bridgewater cleared this message.
JETER