Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA280
2003-02-07 12:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU RECAPS

Tags:  PGOV PINS NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000280 

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU RECAPS
ELECTORAL POLITICS, THUS FAR

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS
1.5(B) AND (D)


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000280

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU RECAPS
ELECTORAL POLITICS, THUS FAR

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS
1.5(B) AND (D)



1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador accompanied by Consul
General and Staff Assistant (note-taker) met a
politically confident and relaxed Lagos State
Governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu on January 24. Despite
the allegations being tossed at him, Tinubu appeared
self-assured and convinced of his political longevity.
The Ambassador and the Governor discussed the results
of the recent party conventions and handicapped the
April general elections. End Summary.



2. (C) Ambassador Jeter began the meeting by
congratulating the Governor on his nomination as the
Alliance for Democracy (AD) Lagos State gubernatorial
candidate. The Governor responded modestly, but
stated that he was virtually unopposed. When asked
about his former Deputy Governor and now staunch foe,
Tinubu said that Bucknor- Ackerele joined the ANPP,
not finding success there, she skipped to the NDP,
where she will likely be the gubernatorial candidate.



3. (C) Despite having supported the presence of
additional political parties, Tinubu now expressed
concern that there were too many parties. Instead of
strengthening democracy, he feared the presence of
roughly 30 parties would weaken democracy and perplex
the Nigerian electorate. On a practical level, the
Governor said, it is difficult for the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) to manage; with
so many parties, minor tasks like constructing
comprehendible ballots posed a challenge. He continued
that INEC's problems are compounded by insufficient
funding to prevent voter fraud. The Ambassador agreed
that funding was a serious issue but gave a different
perspective, saying INEC's challenges could, if
overcome, be viewed as precedent-setting, ultimately
strengthening democracy and establishing examples for
future elections.



4. (C) Asked about the recent PDP convention, Tinubu
stated that the outcome was uncertain even up to the
time the ballots were cast. Adding suspense to the
PDP convention, important governors such as Katsina's
Yar'Ardua and Kaduna's Makarfi waned in their support
for Obasanjo. The opposition to Obasanjo was
understandable, according to Tinubu. On the policy
front, Obasanjo under-performed in several areas, most

profoundly on the budget and resource allocation.
According to Tinubu, Obasanjo low-balled the price of
oil in GON budgetary projections. The FY02 budget, he
said, was based on $18 per barrel, but oil sold at
over $22 per barrel for most of the year. Tinubu asked
where the difference was being deposited, subtly
accusing Obasanjo of malfeasance. The Ambassador asked
Tinubu what he thought of Obasanjo's troubles leading
up to the PDP primaries. Playing both sides of the
fence and contradicting his prior comments, the
Governor said that OO's intra-party troubles were
designed to teach him a lesson. The party always
intended to re-elect him, but wanted to remind
Obasanjo to whom he owed allegiance.



5. (C) The Governor said that Obasanjo's trials and
tribulations have been a serious wake-up call. An
outstanding question is whether Obasanjo will honor
commitments made during his moment of desperation at
the PDP convention. Tinubu explained that Obasanjo
would destroy his own legacy if he seeks revenge
against Atiku. Obasanjo's ego is big, the Governor
said, but he's smart enough not to challenge Atiku. In
fact, in the next administration Atiku will gain more
prominence and power, possibly in the form of a deal
in which Obasanjo would be the traveling Statesman and
Atiku would spearhead domestic policy.



6. (C) The Ambassador asked about ANPP's Presidential
candidate Muhammadu Buhari's prospects in the Southern
States. Tinubu said that Buhari possibly could do well
in the South-South but not in the South-East or South-
West where religion is less important than
personality, political record, sentiment, and
emotions. Tinubu estimated that Buhari will garner 33%
of the vote overall but will not win any Christian
votes in the North. As it now stands, the oil
dichotomy bill will mobilize the North against
Obasanjo if he gives away too much; Tinubu said. Only
Buhari could concede the continental shelf and get
away with it.



7. (C) Tinubu revealed that Alek Ekweume was actually
the AD's preferred PDP candidate and expressed regret
about his defeat. The Governor said that the AD wanted
Ekwueme to run and even win, because he was a civilian
and civilian governments are more responsive to
governors' interests. But Tinubu said that Ekwueme did
not have a chance because he made critical blunders
early on, including insufficient funding and starting
his campaign too late.



8. (C) The Ambassador led the Governor down a
discussion of other "winners and losers" in the
electoral season thus far. Both the Ambassador and the
Governor agreed that the biggest winners were the
governors and Atiku, who proved their relevance and
weight in the primary process by controlling
Obasanjo's fate. National Security Advisor Aliyu
Mohammed was a big loser, Tinubu said. He now has no
prospects in government for 2003 and is out in the
political cold struggling for his survival. Ambassador
Jeter pointed out that IBB didn't deliver and was
possibly the biggest loser of all despite having his
tentacles in 5 parties. The Governor agreed, saying
that IBB was "eaten like beef between two slices of
bread". Tinubu said that IBB's problems began when
Atiku refused to take IBB's bait to break with
Obasanjo. He then conceded that if Atiku himself had
decided to run, Tinubu was planning to be Atiku's Vice
Presidential running mate.



9. (C) Ambassador Jeter shifted the discussion to
state and local politics, asking the Governor's
thoughts on political hot-spots. The Governor said
that election violence in Kwara State was inevitable
because ANPP's Governor Lawal was willing to play
hardball in order to win the election. Tinubu
postulated that Governor Lawal and PDP's Olu Saraki
would likely split the vote in the center of the
state; Lai Mohammed (formerly Tinubu's Chief of Staff)
will be strong in the South while the Northern part of
the state would be up for grabs. The Governor also
predicted problems in Anambra, Enugu, Plateau, and
Kaduna States. In Kaduna, Governor Tinubu said he
expected the AD candidate to win. (NOTE: Not likely.
END NOTE) He is also expecting AD victories in Borno
and perhaps even Benue State. (NOTE: Borno is a
possibility, but Benue is out of range. END NOTE)



10. (C) Comment: With his path to re-election
relatively clear, Tinubu's most serious opponent is
his own past and allegations of forged educational
degrees that continue to hound him. More recent
allegations that Tinubu forfeited $460,000 in the U.S.
to avoid charges of money laundering and even
narcotics trafficking are the latest unconfirmed
scandals. However, Tinubu appeared confident during
this recent session; he overcame the allegations in
1999 and believes he can do the same this time around.
As always, we found his take on the national political
scene to be insightful. His assessment of the winners
and losers tracks our own. Atiku and the governors
were clear winners. Turning the normal political
dynamic on its head, Obasanjo won because he was able
to ride the coattails of his Vice President. Big
losers were Alek Ekwueme, NSA Mohammed and former
Heads of State Babangida and Abdusalami Abubakar,
whose support for Ekwueme was insufficient to
guarantee Obasanjo's defeat.



11. (C) Clearly a skilled politician, Governor Tinubu
was frank but cautious and deliberate. Tinubu's point
of view primarily reflects entrenched interests of the
South but at the same time he was careful not to
dismiss the power of the North. Tinubu is a man intent
on covering all bases. Though an AD politician, like
his Deputy Governor, Tinubu is flexible and willing to
follow wherever the pendulum of power swings. End
Comment.


JETER