NIGERIA: ELECTORAL COMMISSION CONTINUES TO FACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 000278

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL - J. MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTORAL COMMISSION CONTINUES TO FACE
LOGISTICAL PROBLEMS

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason 1.5(b) and
(d).



1. (C) Summary: During a January 12 conversation with
Ambassador Jeter, Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) Chairman Abel Guobadia said INEC would hold
elections as scheduled provided the FY 03 budget allocation
was received in time. Guobadia continued to blame current
logistical bottlenecks in electoral preparations on belated
FY 02 funding and on the December Supreme Court decision
that allowed the registration of over 20 new parties. On
voter registration, Guobadia said verification of the
voters rolls was almost finished but admitted a high rate
of fraud. Regarding the January 21-24 make-up
registration, the INEC Chairman explained the exercise
would be conducted at the 774 local government headquarters
throughout the country vice the 120,000 sites used for the
original round last September. He predicted INEC would be
maligned for reducing the sites, but argued INEC could do
no better given its financial constraints. USAID Country
Director Liberi, USAID Democracy & Governance Officer
Wright and PolCouns accompanied the Ambassador. Chairman
Guobadia was joined by INEC Secretary Hakeem Baba-Ahmed.
End Summary.



2. (C) Beginning the meeting, Chairman Guobadia thanked
Ambassador Jeter for pressing the National Assembly and the
Presidency to fund INEC during the final quarter of 2002.
INEC probably "would not have gotten the amount it did at
the time it did" but for the purposeful intervention of the
Ambassador and other Western Chiefs of Missions, Guobadia
said.



3. (C) Attempting to preempt some of our questions,
Guobadia asserted the electoral schedule was tossed off
kilter when "the political environment shifted" after the
Supreme Court decision last December opened the door to the
registration of over 20 additional parties. Guobadia
contended INEC was not the culprit when it refused to
register those parties in mid-2002. He characterized INEC
as merely and faithfully following the electoral law as it
existed. INEC's registration guidelines were based on the
electoral law, which effectively "raised the bar" against
these parties, he argued. When the Supreme Court
invalidated the sections of the law dealing with party
registration, INEC's corollary regulations also were
nullified. INEC then developed less stringent regulations
consonant with the Court's ruling; these new regulations
paved the way for the additional parties. (Comment:
Guobadia seemed to be at pains to defend his actions and to
show us that he was not the killjoy of greater political
participation as he had been portrayed in the media. End
Comment.)



4. (C) The electoral timetable had to be amended to
accommodate the newcomers, Guobadia continued. Before the
ruling, INEC had proposed that parties submit their notices
of interest for each election in which they would
participate at least 120 days before the elections; the
names of the actual candidates would be required 90 days
before the contests. After the Supreme Court decision, the
National Assembly reduced the 120 days for the party
deadline to 90 days, not realizing the confusion it would
create due to the pre-existing 90-day limit on candidate
submissions. Finally, the National Assembly reduced the
period for candidate submissions to 60 days to resolve this
problem. After pointing to this flaw in the electoral law,
Guobadia asserted there were still many others that needed
rectification before the actual election took place.


--------------
Voters Registration
--------------



5. (C) Both Guobadia and Baba-Ahmed acknowledged voter
registration was key to a credible election and both tried
to defend INEC's handling of the registration exercise.
The Chairman stated that over 60 million of the 72 million
forms prepared for the September exercise were returned for
processing. He claimed the scanning of the forms into the
new computer system was nearly completed. (Scanning was
required not only to input information into a central
database, but to prevent multiple registrations through the
scanning and checking of registrants' thumbprints as well
as their biographic information.) Guobadia admitted a high
rate of fraudulent registrations. Although declining to
give a nationwide figure, he identified a community in
Ekiti State where 1,000 of 4,000 forms were tossed out.
Noting the Ekiti community was rural, Guobadia feared the
incidence in Nigeria's cities likely would be worse.


--------------
Registration "Lite"
--------------



6. (C) While still cleaning the rolls from last September's
registration, INEC would also conduct a January 21-24
"make-up" exercise, Secretary Baba-Ahmed revealed.
Implying that INEC thought a second round unnecessary,
Baba-Ahmed stated the decision on a second round was a
political one. It was in response to the perception widely
held by Nigerians and the international community that many
eligible voters were unable to register last September.
Since INEC never budgeted for a second registration, it had
to shift funds from "other" priorities to finance this
unexpected expense. To accomplish this second round without
siphoning too much from other essential tasks, INEC would
limit registration to the 774 local government authorities.
It would not reopen the 120,000 locations used in
September.



7. (C) Baba-Ahmed downplayed the hardship to potential
registrants this reduction would cause. He contended that
the problem of under-registration was mainly urban. Because
under-registration was infrequent in rural areas, the
reduction of the number of locations would not compel large
numbers of rural residents to travel long distances to
register.





8. (C) Additionally, to lessen fraudulent registrations
during the second round, INEC would make all new
registrants formally disclaim they had not previously
registered and acknowledge that dual registration was a
punishable crime. Due to the reduction of sites, Baba-
Ahmed predicted that many Nigerians would traduce INEC and
make-up exercise. (Comment: Ahmed's prediction was
partially correct. Tight finances might have compelled INEC
to fashion "registration lite." However, most people
believe INEC only begrudgingly agreed to a second round;
they did not expect INEC to exert maximum effort for the
make-up. Because both expectations and turnouts were low,
the criticism has not been as vocal as Baba-Ahmed feared.
More on the second round of registration will be reported
septel. End comment.)



9. (C) The Chairman predicted the registration lists would
be published by late February or early March, followed by a
5-day period of claims and objections. The INEC officials
admitted they have not resolved exactly how they would
handle the claims process. They will have to post the
locally relevant information at each of the 120,000 sites
used in September, with a maximum of 500 names posted at
any one location. Because of fear of tampering, the list
could not simply be posted and left unattended in a public
place overnight. Precautions would have to be established
so that citizens could check the lists without leaving the
lists vulnerable to tampering and fraud, the INEC officials
conceded.


--------------
WHERE IS THE MONEY?
--------------



10. (C) Responding to a question from the Ambassador,
Guobadia sAID that news reports of INEC requesting an
additional 28 billion Naira were essentially correct. He
explained the 28 billion received in December was INEC's
FY-02 allocation. The FY-02 allocation was essentially to
fund pre-election day requirements, such as ballot boxes,
ballot papers, etc. The FY-03 allocation, in addition to
paying recurrent expenses and for a new office building,
was needed for actual election-day expenses.
(Transportation costs for INEC workers, allowances, some
communications, tabulation forms, etc.)



11. (C) Secretary Baba-Ahmed emphasized that INEC needed
international financial assistance in two major areas:


-- Transportation of ballot papers and sensitive equipment
to the polls.


-- Election results management in order to ensure quick and
accurate transmission of results from local stations to the
next successive stage of vote tabulation.


On the first point, INEC wanted donor assistance to develop
a transportation system to move ballot papers and INEC
officials to the 120,000 polling locations just before the
voting begins. Orchestrating so many movements within a
brief time would be a complex logistical undertaking
requiring reliable transportation assets, Baba-Ahmed
argued. INEC had considered pre-positioning materials well
in advance; but, apprehension about theft and fraud doomed
this possibility. On the second point, INEC needed to
quickly tabulate and transmit results, particularly from
isolated rural communities. Baba-Ahmed claimed
irregularities and delays with the vote tabulation were
among the most frequent complaints about the 1999 election.
INEC wanted to avoid these complaints this time around.
The USAID Director responded that USAID, along with other
donors, would be willing to consider reasonable requests to
help on both fronts. However, she disabused the INEC
officials of any notion that USAID would fund the purchase
of big-ticket items such as helicopters and vehicles.


--------------
GRADUAL PROGRESS ON LOGISTICS
--------------



12. (C) Guobadia was pleased INEC had received required
funding for pre-election day expenses; however, the advent
of the new parties had complicated planning. For instance,
preparation of ballot paper had been made exponentially
more complex. INEC did not know whether to place all the
parties on the ballot for all elections even though most
parties would not field a complete slate of candidates.
Because of the uncertainty over which parties will compete
in what elections, INEC planned to wait until the February
11 deadline for the parties to submit their lists of
candidates before developing the ballot paper. He
acknowledged the decision on the ballot paper could be
further delayed if they decided to use pictures and names
of the actual candidates since the parties had until March
11 to amend their candidate lists.



13. (C) Ambassador Jeter emphasized that the ballot paper
and boxes were essential; INEC had to ensure the ordering
was done in good time; the Ambassador expressed concern
that waiting until late February or March might be cutting
things too tightly.


--------------
ELECTION SCHEDULE
--------------



14. (C) Despite the tight scheduling, the Chairman was
confident that INEC would be on schedule for the April 12
National Assembly elections and April 19 Presidential and
gubernatorial elections. Runoffs, if needed, would be
April 29.


--------------
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS
--------------



15. (C) Guobadia mentioned the January 6 Diplomatic Note
sent by the MFA to most diplomatic missions outlining the
accreditation process for international monitors. He
explained that INEC would conduct the actual accreditation
but MFA would be the initial point-of-contact for
prospective monitors. The Chairman hoped the UNDP would
coordinate the work of the international groups since INEC
did not have the wherewithal to manage the task.


--------------
CODE(S)OF CONDUCT
--------------



16. Baba-Ahmed stated the political party Code of Conduct
probably would have been finalized in December but for the
advent of the new parties. He added that INEC Commissioner
Musa was talking with all the political parties and hoped
to finalize the Code in a few weeks. In response to
Ambassador Jeter's recommendation for a journalists' code
of conduct, the Chairman stated that the Ministry of
Communication would have to take the lead, but took it upon
himself to discuss the idea with the Minister.


--------------
COMMENT
--------------



17. (C) Although neither the most engaging or forthcoming
of interlocutors, the Chairman has been increasingly more
accessible and open during our discussions. With the
political party conventions now past, the electoral season
is in full swing; Guobadia knows that he and his Commission
will be at the center of attention; moreover, he knows the
heat that will be generated by his occupancy of that
central position. The countdown to April is inexorable.
While INEC's performance has improved incrementally during
the past weeks, it will have to accelerate its step in
order to be ready in time. We are concerned by INEC's lack
of stride on key items like ballot boxes and papers. The
schedule is tight and the margin for error is wafer thin.
We will continue to press INEC to move both more smartly
and faster on these and other key issues.
JETER