NIGERIA: FRIENDS OF NIGERIA MEETING ON ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000276

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FRIENDS OF NIGERIA MEETING ON ELECTION
PREPARATIONS

REF: A. A) ABUJA 49

B. B) ABUJA 48

C. C) ABUJA 16

D. D) ABUJA 15


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter: Reason: 1.5(b) and
(d)



1. (U) SUMMARY: The Ambassador convened a meeting of the
Friends of Nigeria January 14. The British High Commissioner,
Canadian High Commissioner and German Ambassador attended.
The discussion focused on the presidential conventions of the
major political parties, the second round of voter
registration, and international observers for the general
elections. END SUMMARY


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CONVENTION READ-OUT
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2. (C) The Chiefs of Mission provided their observations of
the PDP and ANPP conventions held in early January. Reftels
cover these details at length. Conclusions regarding the PDP
convention were that President Obasanjo encountered a stiff
challenge from former Vice President Ekweume and that the
political stock of Vice President Atiku and the State
Governors rose as a result of the convention but that
President Obasanjo may likely backtrack from many of the
promises made to Atiku and the Governors in the heat of the
moment. (It is believed that Obasanjo promised to turn over
control of most, if not the entire domestic agenda to Atiku).
A major issue regarding how the important South-South region
will vote is whether Obasanjo will honor his vow to sign the
oil dichotomy bill (ref B). On the ANPP side, all agreed
that former Head of State Mohammedu Buhari will have a
difficult time beating Obasanjo due to Buhari's lack of
support in the South. With the ascendance of Buhari, the
ANPP will be viewed as a northern party. Also discussants
expressed concern that religion may play a divisive role in
the election.


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VOTER REGISTRATION
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3. (C) The general belief was that the January 21-24 second
round of registration indicated a show of good faith by INEC
to respond to the public criticism of the initial round of
registration. Nevertheless, the second round will be little
more than an event to boost public confidence and will not
register many new voters. (Comment: This prediction of a low
turn-out proved to be correct. End Comment.)


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OBSERVERS
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4. (C) Participants discussed the GON Diplomatic Note
outlining the accreditation process for international
election observers. Prospective monitors must submit
biographic information; depending on the detail required by
the GON, this requirement could be onerous. Discussion also
focused on the need to develop a deployment plan for the
observers to maximize geographic coverage and to prevent too
many observers from converging in too few areas of the
country. It was agreed to hold another meeting to begin
developing the deployment plan.



5. (U) Note: In view of the GON requirement that prospective
international monitors submit CV,s, we urge those U.S.
organizations planning to send election observers to submit
the names and CV,s of the observers with utmost dispatch.


JETER
JETER