Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA27
2003-01-06 16:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

Why Nigeria's PDP Governors Could Not Lose

Tags:  PGOV PINS KDEM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000027 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL:12/31/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM NI
SUBJECT: Why Nigeria's PDP Governors Could Not Lose


REF: Abuja 0012
01 Abuja 2878
Abuja 0016
Abuja 0015


CLASSIFIED BY DCM TIMOTHY D. ANDREWS. REASON: 1.5 (D).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000027

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL:12/31/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM NI
SUBJECT: Why Nigeria's PDP Governors Could Not Lose


REF: Abuja 0012
01 Abuja 2878
Abuja 0016
Abuja 0015


CLASSIFIED BY DCM TIMOTHY D. ANDREWS. REASON: 1.5 (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: The PDP's national convention (Refs C and D)
was more competitive than caucuses that renominated every PDP
governor regardless of his popularity or lack of it. However,
this praise is faint indeed, as the gubernatorial caucuses were
blatantly rigged while the national convention was more subtly
manipulated. Each iteration of intrigue and manipulation helps
establish the context for the next one, and mutual knowledge of
one another's compromising behavior (not love of democracy) is
the tie that binds many senior political figures. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) While predicting a first-round victory for President
Olusegun Obasanjo at the January 3-5 national convention of the
ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP),Deputy Senate President
Ibrahim Mantu January 3 told DCM that the vote would not be as
lopsided as it was in late December's gubernatorial primaries.
Mantu commented that over 3,000 delegates had cast ballots in
the "primary" (caucus) that returned him as the PDP nominee for
the Plateau Central Senatorial District. Since each senator
represented about one-third of the state, Mantu continued, it
would have been proportionate for the gubernatorial "primary"
to feature approximately 9,000 delegates. Instead, Governor
Joshua Dariye was returned as the PDP nominee with only 212
delegates participating in the caucus, most of whom were party
or state government officials beholden to him. PDP members in
Plateau had directly elected just 51 delegates (three from each
of the 17 local government areas),and Dariye had a strong hold
on most of them also.



3. (C) Mantu expressed disgust at the lack of fairness,
transparency and public accountability embedded in the
structure of the gubernatorial caucuses. The "non-incumbent
aspirants who went to court to challenge the procedure were
right," Mantu said. Never in his 23 years in politics had he
seen such a blatantly rigged nomination process. The party's
national convention would be open and transparent, however,
Mantu averred.



4. (C) He traced the origins of the gubernatorial nominating

process to the PDP convention of November 2001 that ousted
Barnabas Gemade as party chairman, replacing him with Audu
Ogbeh. It was during the course of that convention that
amendments to the PDP constitution were adopted that reduced
the elected delegates to gubernatorial primaries from one per
ward to three per Local Government Area and increased the
number of ex-officio delegates. The amendments were adopted by
voice vote with virtually none of the delegates ever having
seen the text, to say nothing of appreciating its implications,
said Mantu.



5. (C) COMMENT: Each LGA consists of least 20 wards, and the
average is about 24, so the new amendment cut popularly-elected
delegates by a factor of eight while increasing sharply those
likely to be beholden to incumbent governors. This was part of
the price the Presidency paid to gain incumbent governors'
support for dumping Gemade. They knew (Ref B) that Gemade
would help them return to power and feared Ogbeh's reputation
for integrity, so they insisted on rules that would make it
difficult for any challenger to unseat them. These changes
also gave the governors increased power over their delegations
to the national convention, creating the circumstances that
convinced aggrieved governors that they could successfully
challenge the President (Ref D). END COMMENT.



6. (C) While lauding Ogbeh as "honest" and "principled," Mantu
commented that his accession nonetheless was regrettably marred
by the same sort manipulation that had brought Gemade to power
before him (when the Presidency had wanted to prevent Sunday
Awoniyi from gaining the chairmanship). When one gains office
through intrigue, Mantu continued, the victory is tarnished,
and one lacks the authority to act forcefully. One may also be
forced to compromise one's principles in support of one's
patron, Mantu suggested.



7. (C) COMMENT: Mantu makes a trenchant point; only those
genuinely elected in an open and transparent process possess
clear moral authority (mandate) to govern. Everyone else is
diminished. Public corruption plays a critical role also.
Many senior politicians have indulged in activities that they
would not want publicized and are thus compromised. Mutual
knowledge of this compromise establishes limits on what
politicians can do: Politician A exposes Politician B's
acceptance of bribes at the risk of B telling the story of A's
contract over-invoicing scheme. Since money drives the wheels
of politics and public corruption is a faster and easier route
to wealth than legitimate business, relatively "clean"
politicians tend to be a small minority and thus unable to
effect systemic change. Meanwhile, many elites work within
this framework of mutual compromise; knowledge that everyone
else has a skeleton in the closet makes one less worried about
one's own secret shame. Corruption surprises no one and, as
long as it is not too blatant, arouses little indignation. The
Lagos-based "Guardian" January 6 carried a photo of a policeman
helping someone carry a heavily-laden "Ghana-Must-Go" bag. The
woven plastic "Ghana-Must-Go" Bag is used to carry large sums
of cash and has become the symbol of money's role in politics.
The image of an officer of the law helping to enable corruption
may strike the Western observer as ironic or amusing, but most
Nigerian elites find it utterly mundane and normal.



8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: President Obasanjo may or may not
be personally free of corruption. Views on that subject vary,
and we've seen nothing that would indict him. However, his
acquiescence to associates' use of monetary blandishments and
his own penchant for undermining the position of fellow PDP
members with whom he disagrees do nothing to build a stronger
base for genuine participatory democracy here. The allegation
of Obasanjo's intent to stop the candidacies of some incumbent
governors (Ref D) that sparked the governors' insurrection at
the national convention quite likely was a fabrication by an
Obasanjo antagonist at State House itself. But the governors
believed the story because of Obasanjo's previous efforts to
unseat (or prevent the otherwise probable election of) fellow
party leaders with whom he was in conflict.



9. (C) COMMENT CONCLUDED: The PDP's national convention was
more competitive than the gubernatorial nomination process that
Mantu derided, but that is vanishingly faint praise. Balloting
and vote-counting were transparent and open, but not much else
related to the convention was. The critical accreditation
process was obviously manipulated, with respect both to its
timing and the acceptance of approximately 250 delegates (who
were in no original delegate count we ever saw and whose votes
ultimately were superfluous, Ref C). Moreover, a requirement
that each delegate thumbprint his/her ballot made the secret
ballot far less so. In November of 2001, we said (ref B) that
it was "now up to the President and the new party hierarchy to
continue to mend today's wounds and, perhaps, shift the party
to a more transparent and democratic tomorrow." It still is.
JETER