Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUJA2029
2003-11-26 14:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

ANPP CHAIRMAN ETIEBET ON THE PAST ELECTION,

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM NI OVIP 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002029 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI OVIP
SUBJECT: ANPP CHAIRMAN ETIEBET ON THE PAST ELECTION,
NIGERIA'S FUTURE

CLASSIFIED BY COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


SUMMARY
-------


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002029

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI OVIP
SUBJECT: ANPP CHAIRMAN ETIEBET ON THE PAST ELECTION,
NIGERIA'S FUTURE

CLASSIFIED BY COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


SUMMARY
--------------



1. (C) Don Etiebet, Chairman of Nigeria's main opposition
party, the ANPP, met with PolOff on the margins of a hearing
at the election tribunal of ANPP presidential candidate
Buhari's appeal against the April 2003 elections. Etiebet
commented that the case was going well but that he remained
concerned about whether the judges could decide without
interference from the Presidency. He provided an assessment
of the elections and USG responsibility for their outcome,
and offered advice for upcoming elections. He then expressed
concern about insecurity in Nigeria and the potential for
future problems. Etiebet said that he and Buhari were likely
to visit Washington soon and were putting together a team, a
timeline and an agenda for a visit. Etiebet's assessment of
Nigeria's future was gloomy, and not just because his party
lost the election. He is a businessman and politician who
has been through both good times and bad, and is concerned
that worse is coming. End Summary.


BUHARI SUIT HEARINGS CONTINUE PROBE OF 2003 ELECTION
-------------- --------------



2. (C) ANPP Chairman Don Etiebet met with PolOff November 20
during a hearing of the Buhari suit against the April, 2003
elections. Etiebet, a founding member of the ruling PDP and
a presidential candidate at its 1999 convention, switched to
the ANPP after his becoming disillusioned with the PDP during
Obasanjo's first term. Etiebet claims that when he made the
switch, he lost a long-term information consulting contract
with Shell Oil, and all of the employees of his business were
hired away by the new contractor to manage the proprietary
software his company had installed.



3. (C) Etiebet said that Nigeria "held no elections" in 2003.
He pointed to the logistical failures in the runup to the
elections and claimed that he had expressed his reservations
at every turn. Etiebet claimed INEC Chairman Guobadia is a
personal friend, and that he had warned Guobadia about the
faulty ballot papers, the lack of a voters list and

logistical issues throughout the runup to the elections.
Etiebet commented that Buhari's case was going well and
expressed pleasure that the intimidation and manipulation
during the election were finally coming out. Etiebet
expressed concern, however, about the ultimate outcome of the
case.



4. (C) Etiebet said he and Buhari believe there are two
possible outcomes. He speculated that if the judges bowed to
Presidential pressure and found in Obasanjo's favor (or
declared that new elections would be "disruptive," as
Obasanjo's lawyer was contending in court),Nigerians would
decide that neither the government nor the judiciary is "for
the common man." If the appeal went on to the next level,
and the Supreme Court ordered fresh elections after judging
the case "on its merits," in Etiebet's view, "Obasanjo would
ignore the ruling of the court." Etiebet commented that in
either situation, "the likelihood for civil unrest and
anarchy would be high." He stated that he had never seen
such disillusionment with a government as Obasanjo
engendered, "not even during the Abacha days." Etiebet said
that according to his sources, the military, civil society
and even the President's own party were all aligning against
what he termed a "do-nothing" administration. "Obasanjo
takes all challenges personally and devotes himself to
exacting revenge on anyone who dares to question him,"
Etiebet said.


CRITICISM OF THE U.S. ROLE
--------------



5. (C) ANPP Chairman Etiebet only partially blamed the
international community for the failure of the elections, but
said the public viewed the USG as the "culprit" who had
engineered Obasanjo's second term. "Nigerians believe that
Obasanjo was America's candidate, and that creates
difficulties in mounting pressure to clean up the corrupt
system," he commented. Etiebet said U.S. and European
technical support for the elections was appreciated but
"ineffective." "Nigerians are among the most politically
aware people in the world," he said, "and there is no need to
train them how to run elections." Etiebet instead suggested
that all the international resources would be better spent in
sending an observer team of sufficient size to cover the
entire country, and empowering them to at least "broadcast
the deficiencies on election day." Even better, he mused,
would be giving the international observers authority to
suspend or cancel elections in areas where problems were
observed.



6. (C) Etiebet lamented, "We have the knowledge to hold a
free election, but we lack the political will to see it
through." He suggested that at least three international
observers should be "embedded" in INEC: one at the
commissioner level with broad authority to participate in the
decision-making process there, one at the logistics level to
ensure proper handling and delivery of materials, and a third
in the information systems area to guard against manipulation
of voters lists and returns. INEC told the Buhari court
judges yet again on November 20 that it still cannot produce
the National Voters Register nor polling station tally
sheets, seven months after they were required for the
election and six months after the court subpoenaed them.


LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
--------------



7. (C) Etiebet then turned to Nigeria's future political
landscape. "The next (2007) election is a long way off," he
said. He identified the continuing discontent with
Obasanjo's "dictatorial" approach to governance and the
steadily deteriorating state of security in the nation as the
two things which could cause Nigeria's Fourth Republic to
fail. Etiebet claimed the ANPP leadership was responsible
for maintaining the relative calm on Nigeria's streets in the
wake of the "worst rigging in Nigeria's history." By taking
the issue to court first rather than directly to the streets,
Etiebet averred, Nigerians were being patient and relatively
nonviolent. "Nigerians will not remain complacent forever --
if the courts do not take action, it will be difficult to
control the street," he warned. He also expressed concern
over the level of discontent in the military, commenting that
talk of a coup was now "the rule rather than the exception."



8. (C) Etiebet said that he had been working with Buhari to
plan a trip to Washington to press the case against the April
2003 elections. He said they hoped to meet with ranking
Department officials as well as National Security Advisor
Rice, congressional and media contacts. Etiebet said that no
firm date had been proposed, but that mid- to late-January
was most likely. The group's agenda was primarily to spread
the word about the election's irregularities and the
potential for a military coup or other civil unrest in the
coming months.


COMMENT
--------------



9. (C) All of this would seem sour grapes coming from a
politician who lost out within the PDP in 1999, and then
chaired the ANPP to losing in 2003. But Etiebet was speaking
immediately after one of the best days yet for Buhari's suit
against President Obasanjo and INEC. Obasanjo's defense
lawyer was arguing that INEC's election materials did not
meet the standards of evidence, while INEC's defense lawyer
was telling the court again that the "Independent" National
Electoral Commission still did not have materials the
Election Act had required before the April 2003 election
could have been legally held. The ANPP views the court
hearings as proving Buhari's case, and Etiebet was thus less
the fox of the fable than the Bible's widow continuing to
beseech the judge. Given ANPP supporters' doubts that
Nigeria's courts will be permitted to overturn the election,
Buhari's U.S. trip will be played to ANPP supporters as an
appeal to the Washington they believe has the final say.
MEECE