MFA DOUBTFUL OF MUGABE INVITE TO CHOGM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001995

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2013
TAGS: PREL ZI NI
SUBJECT: MFA DOUBTFUL OF MUGABE INVITE TO CHOGM


REF: HARARE 2256


Classified by CDA Roger Meece. Reason 1.5 (b/d)



1. (C) During a November 20 meeting with MFA Permanent
Secretary Amb. Daniel Hart, CDA asked about any new

SIPDIS
developments related to the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of
Government Meeting (CHOGM) arising out of President
Obasanjo's recent visit to Zimbabwe. Hart professed not to
know the details of Obasanjo's discussions in Harare, but
expressed doubt that any significant changes will be made to
summit arrangements. Pressed a bit further, Hart said that
he thinks it "too late" for a summit invitation to be issued
to Zimbabwe President Mugabe. Hart characterized Obasanjo's
Harare trip as "taking the pulse" so that he would be able to
discuss the Zimbabwe issue fully with Commonwealth
counterparts. In this regard, he observed that it is
unlikely that current Chair AUSTRALIA would be making a
high-level visit to Zimbabwe soon. Hart said that he was
well aware of Mugabe's public statements that he is looking
forward to participating in the CHOGM summit, but dismissed
these as being entirely for Zimbabwe domestic consumption.



2. (C) Hart emphasized that the Nigerians are very aware of
the potential for the issue of Zimbabwe to dominate if not
disrupt the summit. The GON wants to ensure that this does
not happen. Hart said that while the issue is important and
will certainly be an important topic, there are many other
issues that the Commonwealth leaders need to discuss as well.



3. (C) Comment: Hart's views are not definitive; Obasanjo is
capable of surprising his own officials by independent
action. It is conceivable that Obasanjo could be personally
swayed by sufficient concerted pressure by fellow African
leaders to do something for Mugabe. Hart's thinking does
reflect, however, prevailing sentiment in MFA and much of the
GON. As well, Obasanjo certainly does not want the Abuja
summit to break up in disarray over controversy centered on
Mugabe's presence, and he is well aware of that possibility.
We therefore think it likely that Hart has this basically
right - Obasanjo felt the need for a personal visit to
demonstrate his conscientious discharge of responsibility,
but without intent of trying to deliver a personal CHOGM
invitation to Mugabe. End comment.
MEECE