WARRI CRISIS UPDATE 20AUG03

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001411

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2013
TAGS: EPET PINS ASEC PGOV PHUM NI
SUBJECT: WARRI CRISIS UPDATE 20AUG03

REF: ABUJA 1409 AND PREVIOUS


1.(U) Classified by Charge' d'Affaires, a.i. Rick Roberts for
reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


2.(C) SUMMARY: In what may be a lull before the storm,
fighting in Warri town susided August 20 as additional police
and army troops appeared preparing for what many expect will
soon be a large-scale military operation against the warring
militants. END SUMMARY


3.(SBU) Fighting in Warri town apppears to have subsided
August 20. In separate conversations with CRO, FNDIC leader
Dan Ekpedibe and a Warri-based worker of U.S. NGO "IFESH"
reported that the situation in the port area of Warri town
had calmed, with no new attacks by Itsekiri militants. The
latter saw three large trucks transporting troops towards the
port area; Ekpedibe saw three large "trailers" discharging
over 100 soldiers in the area around 1200 local. The Ijaw
militant leader claimed that the Ijaw continue a defensive
posture, and would not fight unless attacked. Both sources
report that residents of the port area are evacuating with
whatever they can carry amidst rumors of imminent military
action. No new deaths were reported overnight.


4.(SBU) Ijaw youth leader Dimieri Von Kemedi told CRO August
20 that he cancelled plans to travel to Warri after hearing
of the intense fighting and rumors of the imminent military
operation. He stated that he supported military action at
this point; "it is needed" to stop the bloodshed.


5.(SBU) Acting Deputy Inspector General of Police for
Operations Lawrence Alobi August 20 confirmed to CRO that
nine 100-men units of Mobile Police (MOPOL) have been
transfered from various parts of the country for deployment
in Warri town to augment the Joint Task Force. The 900 MOPOL
are arriving now and will be under the joint command of the
Assistant Inspector General of Police for Zone 5 (covering
Delta State) Gazali Lawal and Army BGen Zamani. Alobi
refuted an August 20 press report that 20 policemen have died
in the Warri fighting; only one police officer has been
killed he asserted.


6.(C) ChevronTexaco (CTX) offices in Warri remain open;
Shell's remains closed. CTX's Security Advisor Hamish
MacDonald believes military action is imminent and he is
attempting to coordinate a joint position on the military's
action with counterparts in Shell, but Shell has remained
"tight-lipped" on its dealings with the Nigerian military, he
disclosed.


7.(SBU) In an August 20 phone conversation with CRO, Chief
(Mrs.) Mercy Almonsa-Isei, chairperson of the House Committee
on Petroleum and Gas confirmed that the House Speaker, Aminu
Masari, in the coming days would be leading a House
delegation (including Almonsa-Isei) to inspect the Warri
areas affected by the recent violence and to encourage peace
negotations among the warring parties.


8.(SBU) Governor James Ibori is back in Warri and as of 1630
local was chairing an emergency meeting with ethnic leaders
and security forces chiefs, according to his personal
assistant.


YORUBAS AIDING THE ITSEKIRI?
--------------


9.(C) He disclosed that other Ijaw leaders have been
talking to the militant Yoruba "Odua Peoples Congress (OPC)"
about the OPC's alleged support for the Itsekiri militants.
(Note: Itsekiris are ethnicly affiliated with the Yoruba.
End Note) According to Von Kemedi, an OPC leader told the
Ijaw in recent days that the OPC is not officially supporting
the Itsekiri militants, but he allowed for the possibility
that some OPC cadre are fighting alongside their Itsekiri
brethren. Von Kemedi hopes to meet with OPC leaders in Lagos
this weekend to solicit their help in obtaining a cessation
of Itsekiri attacks.


10.(C) CORRECTION: Yesterday's update (reftel) incorrectly
cited the Director of Operations in Warri as the DATT's
source of the confirmation of the four soldiers' death and
the plans for an attack "soon" (vice over the August 22-24
weekend). The source was Minister of Defense Kwankwaso. The
correct spelling of the Director of Operations is: Pkwember
(pronounced "Kwambay").


11.(C) COMMENT: Public attention to the Warri crisis has
reached a new height, with the Presidency and National
Assembly leaders joining the public chorus for immediate
federal government action to save lives. The military seems
to have its green light.


ROBERTS