NIGERIA: BUHARI STILL STANDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001285

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI STILL STANDING


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons: 1.5 (B
& D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Poloff met General Muhammadu Buhari,
ANPP presidential candidate, to discuss his assessment of
Nigeria and his future plans. Buhari commented that he had
no faith in Obasanjo because the "four failed years has
only emboldened him." Buhari criticized the electoral
tribunals for lack of fairness and warned that Nigeria's
relative quiet did not signify acquiescence, but rather it
was the silence that often comes before something dramatic
happens. He asserted that the ongoing arrests of
opposition activists and the continued shortfalls of
funding for the military would create more tension and
uncertainty. While appearing tired, he did not seem
frustrated. Rather, he seemed impatient, as if he was
merely marking time until a political opening was
presented.


ON OBASANJO
--------------



2. (C) Buhari remains critical of President Obasanjo and
his government. He complained about increasing corruption
and groused that the Administration's privatization efforts
only transferred national assets into the hands of regime
insiders. He alleged that this rising corruption and
nepotistic privatization were indicative of "Obasanjo's
legacy of failure." Commenting that the previous four
years has only emboldened Obasanjo, Buhari pointed to the
widespread irregularities of the 2003 elections and the use
of security services to ensure a "mandate for continuity"
as Obasanjo's only success. He said that Obasanjo's style
of governance continues to alienate people throughout the
country. While raising expectations that he would appoint
a stellar, reformist cabinet, Obasanjo's Ministerial
selections are a combination of recycled failures and
nobodies, Buhari remarked. He predicted that corruption
and mismanagement will continue unabated, and, if Obasanjo
lasts a whole term, will culminate in elections in 2007
"even worse than 2003."


ON TRIBUNALS
--------------



3. (C) Buhari stated flatly that the tribunals were a
waste, but said that he had promised to seek redress
through the tribunals and would see this pledge through
because "I am a man of my word." He said that he only
committed to go along with the process for appearances
sake. Buhari claimed the majority of cases were thrown out
for "technical" reasons and said "everyone knows" the
judges were bribed and coerced to maintain the status quo.
When asked about his prospects, Buhari stated that he
expected little from the Federal Court of Appeals (which
sits as the initial Presidential Tribunal),but would
follow the process through to the Supreme Court. When
asked what he expected from highest court, Buhari
responded, "I know (Chief Justice) Uwais and he will behave
honorably."


ON SECURITY
--------------



4. (C) Buhari lamented Nigeria's continued insecurity,
claiming "more people have been killed under this regime
than under Abacha." He alleged the detention of thousands
of political activists, saying this was a symptom of
Obasanjo's intellectual and moral bankruptcy. He remained
concerned that the potential for violence is great
throughout Nigeria. He claimed that people throughout the
country are frustrated and angry and are agitating to
attack the "so-called legitimacy" of this regime. Buhari
said that if Obasanjo was aware of the "lengths we are
going to in ensuring calm," he would be frightened by the
potential for upheaval." "Quiet is not acquiescence; the
tendency is to take the fight to the streets," he averred.
Buhari was also concerned that the military is demoralized
and has been woefully underfunded. As an institution, the
military has been in a state of decline throughout
Obasanjo's term and its members are suffering
disproportionately to the rest of society, Buhari claimed.


COMMENT
--------------



5. (C) Buhari, far from frustrated, seemed a man who is
confident that he will continue to play a large role in
national politics and that it will not exclusively be as an
opposition figure. He continues to attract large crowds to
many places he travels and enjoys the limelight. While
keeping his own plans close to his chest, he did appear
impatient with having to go through the electoral tribunal
process which he labeled ineffective. It remains ironic
that among the former coupists claiming to be born-again
democrats, Buhari's claims of reform have strengthened and
he is increasingly viewed by the public as the (self-
proclaimed) leading political opposition figure and, most
strongly in the North, a primary defender of democracy and
electoral fairness.
JETER