NIGERIA: PDP GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000012

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PDP GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARIES


CLASSIFIED BY CDA TIMOTHY D. ANDREWS. REASONS: 1.5 (B & D).



1. (U) The People's Democratic Party (PDP) held its so-
called primaries during Christmas week 2002, producing few
surprises. The selection of delegates to the state-by-
state caucuses was designed to give maximum authority to
incumbent governors in controlling the selection process.
As expected, the majority of incumbents faced only token
opposition in securing renomination. Questions remain
about the validity of several of the caucuses, however, due
to ongoing controversy. Often-conflicting reports sourced
to different party officials indicate that the caucuses in
at least two, and possibly as many as ten, of the 36 states
may have been suspended or annulled. Further, the final
nomination of candidates requires the National Executive
Council (under party Chairman Audu Ogbeh) to certify the
state-by-state results.



2. (U) Ogbeh told the press on December 30, 2002, that the
incumbent governors would "ordinarily not have been made to
go through the rigor of primaries but for the need to
address the fears of some members that candidates would be
imposed on the party." He then presented 20 of the 21 PDP
incumbent governors with nomination certificates. Anambra
Governor Mbadinaju may have been the exception, though some
reports say he ultimately got his certificate also.



3. (C) In spite of Ogbeh's soothing words about the
"primary process," many irregularities arose. The party
has made no definitive statement on the validity of the
various state primaries and party officials have given
conflicting statements on the conduct of primaries in the
remaining states. In many instances, the reported vote
tally requires observers to suspend belief. In one state,
for example, the incumbent won 100 percent of the votes,
indicating that his two opponents, realizing their own
limitations, voted against themselves.



4. (C) In another instance, the Election Returns Officer
from Delta State showed the primary tally sheets to PolOff
on January 1, commenting that he did not know what he
should do with them. He said that, before the "primary,"
President Obasanjo had advised him to ensure the victory of
a specific senatorial candidate. Shortly after his
conversation with the President, the Vice-President had
called on behalf of a second candidate and former Minister
of Works and Obasanjo's Rasputin Tony Anenih lobbied for a
third candidate. Further, the Returns Officer said, before
he could tally the results, the outcome was announced by
the Presidency in Abuja.



5. (C) Even though Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso received
the nomination certificate at the PDP's December 30, 2002,
ceremony, the outcome of the Kano caucus is controversial.
Some reports say that the caucuses were suspended due to
irregularities while others announced "official" results.
In either case the machinations in Kano highlight the
difficulty of maintaining 100 percent control over the
selections. Kwankwaso, an Obasanjo supporter, was
successful in his quest for securing the gubernatorial
nomination, winning a reported 284 of 287 votes after his
strongest opponent (Umar Danhassan) walked out in the wake
of denial of accreditation to many supporters. Meanwhile,
incumbent Speaker of the House and Obasanjo gadfly Ghali
Na'Abba secured the party's nomination for his reelection
bid. According to one attendee, Na'Abba garnered all the
votes in the first round, but the Returns Officer announced
his defeat at the hands of a rival, the son of former Head
of State Murtala Mohammed and the handpicked candidate of
President Obasanjo. After rallying his supporters and
staging a series of public demonstrations which threatened
to close down the convention, a second vote was conducted,
reportedly on instructions from the President, and Na'Abba
again chalked up a victory. Kano observers commented that
the choice of Murtala's son was a poor one since the man
spoke virtually no Hausa (he grew up in the Southwest and
is far more fluent in Yoruba) and therefore could not have
understood most of his "constituents."



6. (C) Ogbeh commented to us that the candidate lists
would not be final until they are submitted to INEC on
February 25; until then, the process of vetting would
continue, and any candidate might be removed at any time.
Ogbeh also told us that the National Executive Council
would disqualify those who violate the principles of fair
play, stressing particularly the importance of eschewing
violence. While disqualification remains a possible threat
for some, irregularities apparently were so widespread and
pervasive that the vast majority of PDP candidates who
emerged from the "primaries" ultimately will contest the
general election for the offices they seek. No matter what
Ogbeh's philosophical inclinations or personal intentions
might be, he simply cannot disqualify every offender. In
the end, only a few of the most egregious may face loss of
their PDP nominations.



7. (C) COMMENT: The nomination process for the PDP was
transparent(ly contrived and occasionally ludicrous) and
generally far from free and fair. The delegate lists were
manipulated to ensure that incumbent governors faced no
credible challenges. Returns frequently were inaccurate or
delayed, occasionally outrightly fraudulent and, finally,
irrelevant to the announced results. Losing aspirants may
now migrate to other parties, but whether they will fare
better in the general elections is uncertain.
ANDREWS