NIGERIA: NLC THREATENS GENERAL STRIKE OVER FUEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001107

SIPDIS


STATE FOR AF/W, INR AND EB
STATE PASS USTR


E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2008
TAGS: EPET ENRG ELAB PINS PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NLC THREATENS GENERAL STRIKE OVER FUEL
PRICE HIKE

REF: ABUJA 01091


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reasons 1.5 (B) and
(D)



1. (C) SUMMARY: The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) called on
June 24 for a nationwide strike beginning Monday June 30 to
protest the GON's fuel price hike. Some in the NLC
leadership were lukewarm about a strike; however, the
decision was no surprise. The Union's long standing and
perhaps its most well known position on any public policy was
to oppose any fuel price hike on which it was not consulted.
In raising fuel prices last week, the GON bypassed the NLC.
Since the GON ignored labor, the Union had no choice but to
strike, according to labor officials. The anticipated strike
may pose a compound challenge for the Government. Not only
must it contend with the NLC and public anger over the price
hike, the Government must also expect that opposition
politicians, still smarting over the April elections, will
try to exploit the situation.


Sporadic Protests
--------------



2. (C) According to press reports and Embassy sources, last
week's fuel price hike has generated localized protests and
fisticuffs in a few cities. Students in Ibadan, the Yoruba
southwest and Obasanjo's political backyard, blocked
intersections, burned tires and shouted anti-Obasanjo
slogans. In Kano, there were scuffles in fuel queues. There
was also a small peaceful protest in Abuja on June 23.
Transportation workers have vowed to join in any labor action
to protest the hike. The National Association of Road
Transport Owners threatened to halt all long distance bus
operations in the country until fuel prices are lowered.


Opposition Figures Welcome A Strike
--------------



3. (C) Opposition figures are enamored with prospects of a
national strike. They will hope to ride labor's coattails to
exploit the strike for their own objectives. Having called
for mass protest against the Government but not finding a way
to stoke it, these politicians believe the price increase has
provided a perfect filip. Obasanjo and his allies are not
unaware of the risks. They likely will employ both the
carrot and stick to douse labor's ardor and to keep their
political opposition fragmented and off-balance.


GON VS. NLC--Round Three
--------------



4. (C) When the GON raised fuel prices in June 2000 and
January 2002, it also refused to accede to labor's demands to
rescind or lower the price increase. In 2000, the NLC
successfully orchestrated a strike, causing government to
soften the price increase. In 2002, the strike fizzled
quickly; government refused to reduce the new price.


Comment
--------------



5. (C) Again, the NLC has called for a strike due to a gas
price increase. This puts the NLC leadership on the line.
Already this year, the NLC has been unpersuasive in getting
the GON to honor a 12.5% wage increases as agreed upon early
last year. Some NLC members have grumbled that the Congress'
leadership did not press hard enough for the wage increase.
They fear NLC President Adams Oshiomole has gotten too cozy
with President Obasanjo. Now that the strike is on, they
will be watching closely to see who--Oshiomole or
Obasanjo--blinks first. If it is Oshiomole, they will cry
betrayal. However, that would be unfair to the labor
stalwart. Labor as a whole does not seem enthusiastic about
the strike. They feel compelled to take it because the
Government ignored the NLC when it announced the price hike.



6. (C) The NLC is probably delaying the strike until Monday
to allow public sentiment to foment, in hopes that the GON be
more amenable to negotiation. Additionally, the NLC has
traditionally struck on Mondays, because people have been
more likely to stay home, in effect, extending their
weekends. It seems highly unlikely that the GON will rescind
or reduce the increase by Monday. Thus, the NLC will likely
strike. There will be popular support but to what extent is
hard to divine. If the strike gains traction, Obasanjo would
be faced with the first crisis of his Administration without
a Cabinet, including a Minister of Labor, in place. This
might not only be Obasanjo's third showdown with labor over
fuel prices (2000 and 2002 being the other). This might be
the first test of the tensile strength of Obasanjo's second
term mandate. END COMMENT.
JETER