NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP JUNE 13

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001049

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP JUNE 13

REF: ABUJA 934


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASON: 1.5 (B)
and (D).



1. (U) THIS PERIODIC JOINT POLITICAL REPORT FROM ABUJA AND
LAGOS INCLUDES:

2.
--ELECTION TRIBUNALS UPDATE
--WABARA FOR SENATE PRESIDENT
--VIOLENCE-FREE INAUGURATION
--DO THE JUNE 20 ELECTIONS MATTER?
--VIOLENCE IN ADAMAWA STATE


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ELECTION TRIBUNALS UPDATE
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2. (U) The election tribunals continue to hear cases.
Several relatively minor cases have been thrown out on
various technicalities. In the lone election to be annulled
so far, a tribunal in Edo State rejected PDP House of
Representatives candidate Jun Adun's victory and awarded the
seat to his ANPP challenger, Amen Osunde. Though many
elections face challenges in the tribunals, the House and
Senate already held their opening sessions and selected the
legislative leadership. Both houses have adjourned until
June 24.


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WABARA FOR SENATE PRESIDENT
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3. (C) Although at the center of an election fracas over his
reelection, PDP Senator Aldolphus Wabara was chosen last week
as the new Senate President. INEC originally announced ANPP
candidate Dan Imo as the winner of the Abia South-Central
Senatorial seat. President Obasanjo even sent Imo a
congratulatory message. Nevertheless, on June 2, the Federal
High Court in Abuja ordered INEC to change course and certify
Wabara as the victor. Imo has asked the High Court to vacate
its order. The High Court has not yet responded to Imo and
the case is still pending before an election tribunal. For
the moment, Wabara has assumed his post as Senate President.
Meanwhile, Justice Egbo Egbo, who issued the ruling to INEC,
has been called before a tribunal headed by Supreme Court
Chief Justice Uwais.


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VIOLENCE-FREE INAUGURATION
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4. (U) Despite calls by some in the opposition parties for
"mass action" to derail President Obasanjo's May 29
inauguration, Nigeria was calm and peaceful and the inaugural
activities nearly hitch-free throughout. In anticipation of
disturbances on the day of inauguration, large numbers of
troops and police were deployed in Abuja and other major
population centers. The National Assembly convened its
inaugural session without problem. There were no reported
incidents of large-scale violence or protests. After having
their attempts to thwart the inauguration through legal
maneuvering rejected by the Courts, opposition parties now
await rulings from the various electoral tribunals. Detailed
analysis of the opposition and its options will follow septel.


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DO THE JUNE 20 ELECTIONS MATTER?
--------------



5. (C) Conventional wisdom is that local government elections
would take place on June 20 in all 36 states. However, since
the timing of the elections is controlled by each state,
elections in several states could be postponed due to
political or logistical considerations (NOTE: LGA elections
were originally scheduled for March 2002. END NOTE.) There
have been reports in the domestic media and from mission
sources that predict several governors will either delay or
cancel LGA elections in their states.



6. (C) COMMENT: In addition to "election fatigue," creation
of new LGAs might be the driving force behind election delays
or cancellations in some states. Currently, Nigeria has 774
constitutionally mandated LGAs. Funds for each of these LGAs
are earmarked by the Federal Government as a portion of the
monies it disburses to the states. Since newly created LGAs
will not receive these earmarked Federal monies they could be
more easily controlled by the state governors who control
their access to funding. Governors who advocate creating new
LGAs will seek to delay elections until they can do so.
Governor Makarfi of Kaduna State is attempting to create 25
new Local Government Areas and has declared his intention to
cancel the upcoming elections. Several other states have
also announced intentions to create new LGAs.



7. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: At the national level, the LGA
elections have little more impact than providing an
opportunity for sitting governors to solidify their control
of their respective states. Whether a state holds LGA
elections on June 20 or delays them depends largely on
whether having elections sooner or later (or not at all) will
be more advantageous to the chief executive of the state
concerned. END COMMENT.


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VIOLENCE IN ADAMAWA STATE
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8. (C) There was an outbreak of religious/communal violence
in Numan, Adamawa State on June 8. According to newspaper
and radio reports, eight people were killed during a riot
sparked when a non-local Muslim "water hawker" stabbed a
female Christian evangelist during an argument over the cost
of a jerry can of water. A mosque and "several other places
of worship" reportedly were razed during the riot. A
dusk-to-dawn curfew has been in effect since Sunday, June 8,
and there have been no further reports of violence in the
area. (COMMENT: This incident is illustrative of the
underlying religious tension in many Nigerian communities.
Religion may have only played a minor role in the event that
caused this eruption but it was enough to provoke widespread
violence this community. Fortunately, this incident was
localized and brought quickly under control. There is no
indication the violence in Numan has significantly raised the
level of tension in other areas of Adamawa state, or
neighboring areas, or other s
tates in Nigeria. END COMMENT.)
JETER
JETER