UAEG WELCOMES SECRETARY'S PRESENTATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 000676

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/NGA, SA/PAB AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2013
TAGS: PREL UN IZ TC
SUBJECT: UAEG WELCOMES SECRETARY'S PRESENTATION
BUT PUBLIC REACTION MIXED; DERISIVE
RITTER SOUNDS OFF IN ABU DHABI

REF: Abu Dhabi 629


1. (U) Classified by Charge d'Affaires Thomas
Williams for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D).

UAEG PRIVATELY SUPPORTIVE
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2. (S) Initial UAEG reaction to the Secretary's presentation
has been very encouraging. UAE Information Minister Shaykh
Abdullah Bin Zayid Al-Nahyan, who was in London on a private
visit, contacted the Ambassador in the U.S. to note that the
facts presented were "credible and convincing." The
Secretary's inclusion of Saddam's human rights abuses at the

SIPDIS
end "completed the package." Abdullah advised the USG to
flood the Arabic media in order to underscore the
Secretary's message. He said the UAEG intended to release a

SIPDIS
public statement supportive of the presentation (see below).
We separately received positive feedback from Chief of Staff
Shaykh Muhammad Bin Zayid Al-Nahyan (via his Amcit military
advisor who conveyed points to NEA/ARP Director and
Polchief). MbZ (the UAE's de facto Defense Minister)
thought the speech was very powerful and depicted the real
picture of the Iraqi regime. He wished that the Secretary
had not made a connection between Saddam and Palestinian
"terrorism" and underlined his oft-mentioned concerns that
the optics of any potential conflict will be key in keeping
a lid on popular Arab anger.

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SEMI-GOVERNMENTAL PAPER TAKES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE
EDITORIAL STANCE....
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3. (SBU) The semi-governmental Abu Dhabi-based Arabic
language daily "Al-Ittihad" (widely viewed as the UAEG's
mouthpiece) on 2/6 issued a strongly supportive editorial,
placing the onus entirely on Saddam (reftel). Noting that
the Secretary had made a very tight case, "Al-Ittihad"
commented that the presentation highlighted the very real
limitations of the inspections' process, particularly in a
country in which the regime has made an "art of survival."
As the editorial put it, "The American submission, supported
by images, phone intercepts, and detailed charts, left no
room for extending the inspectors' mission and put extensive
pressure on the Security Council to take urgent action to
implement the serious consequences which the UNSC warned of
if 1441 was violated." (Note: In our view, this editorial
may well be the promised UAEG statement. Shaykh Abdullah is
chairman of the board of the "Al-Ittihad" parent company
Emirates' Media International and, in that capacity, is able
to exercise considerable editorial authority. End Note.)

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...IN STARK CONTRAST TO OTHER, VERY NEGATIVE, REACTIONS
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4. (U) The "Al-Ittihad" stance was not reflected in the
editorial pages of the UAE's other papers. The 2/7 English-
language "Gulf News" editorial, titled "Powell found
wanting," charged that the Secretary's "swish" presentation
had "all of the hallmarks of Hollywood and Steven Spielberg.
But this was one spiel that did not travel well, probably
little further than the doors of the Pentagon, the White
House and 10 Downing Street." The editorial cast doubt on
the credibility of the satellite photographs and telephone
intercepts and noted that "it beggars belief that Iraq,
known to have sophisticated intelligence systems themselves
(sic),would not be conscious of the fact that all
electronically transmitted messages would be liable to
interception." The "Gulf News" editorial line was mirrored
by the Sharjah-based Arabic daily "Al-Khaleej," which has
traditionally taken a very critical, anti-American stance.


5. (U) Although he did not comment on the Secretary's
presentation itself, longtime Mission contact and Dubai
corporate leader Khalaf Al-Habtoor, in a 2/7 "Gulf News" op-
ed, registered concern over what he described as the USG's
post 9/11 spurning of multilateralism and embrace of the
"first strike option." In Al-Habtoor's view, the mere
threat of U.S. military action will be enough to force a
regime change in Iraq.

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MIXED PUBLIC REACTION
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6. (SBU) While many of our interlocutors were critical of
the presentation and used it as an opportunity to vent on
U.S. policy towards the Middle East peace process, others
took a more nuanced view. Several expatriates and Emiratis
-- convinced that war is inevitable -- were alarmed by the
mostly negative international reaction. In their view, the
risks of inaction now solidly outweigh the risks of action.
Our Iraqi expatriate interlocutors have been the most vocal,
expressing irritation at the reaction of their fellow Arabs
and advising us to just ignore the naysayers and get on with
the job.

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SCOTT RITTER SOUNDS OFF AT THE ARAB LEAGUE'S ZAYID CENTER
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7. (U) Former UNSCOM inspector Scott Ritter found a largely
receptive audience during a 2/8 lecture at the Zayid Center
for Coordination and Follow-Up, an Arab League "research
center" funded by UAE Deputy Prime Minister Shaykh Sultan
Bin Zayid Al-Nahyan. Sultan attended the lecture, in a rare
public appearance. Addressing the diplomatic and press
corps, Ritter predictably derided the Secretary's "smoke and
mirrors" presentation, noting that the U.S., bent on regime
change, is determined to undermine the inspections' process.
Ritter posited that as long as the U.S. focus is on regime
change, the international community must remain suspicious
of U.S. policy and all Americans assigned to inspection
teams in Iraq should be considered intelligence agents. He
described U.S. Iraq policy as being part of a grander design
aimed at regional transformation and took issue with what he
characterized as our unilateralist approach. Ritter
predicted a popular Iraqi uprising against a U.S. occupation
of Iraq, coupled with broader instability in the region
which could result in the downfall of some Arab governments.
Ritter's apocalyptic vision, and particularly his brash
statements on the likely reaction of Iraqis led one Iraqi
expat, a long-term resident here, to comment skeptically and
rather indignantly to poloff in an aside "just who does
Ritter think he is to speak for Iraqis"

WILLIAMS