PROSPECTS FOR GREATER POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 003069

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP

NSC FOR PETER THEROUX

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/13
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM TC
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR GREATER POLITICAL
PARTICIPATION IN THE UAE

REF: A) Abu Dhabi 1813

B) Dubai 1318


1. (U) Classified by Ambassador Marcelle M. Wahba
for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: The collapse of Saddam's regime and
an avowed U.S. policy of encouraging greater
political participation and economic reform across
the region in the post 9/11 environment have
increased expectations within intellectual circles
here that a broadening of the UAE's extremely
limited political space is only a matter of time.
A number of reform-minded Emiratis have raised this
issue with the Ambassador and other mission
officers. These Emiratis hope and believe the time
is ripe for USG engagement with the UAE leadership.
The Ambassador intends to continue raising the
issue with senior Emiratis but we believe that in
order for our message to have traction, other USG
interlocutors -- particularly senior Washington
officials -- should use the occasion of meetings
with the UAEG leadership to engage them on the
subject. As we proceed with the Middle East
Partnership Initiative (MEPI) in the UAE, we
recommend an initial focus on rule of law, civil
society, education curriculum reform, women's
empowerment and a strengthened NGO movement as the
building blocks for a gradual liberalization of the
UAE polity (see septel for our specific MEPI
recommendations). END SUMMARY.

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DUBAI DISTRICT COUNCIL ANNOUNCEMENT GENERATES
DISCUSSION OF BROADER POLITICAL PARTICIPATION
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3. (C) Dubai's announcement in April (Ref B) of the
establishment of elected district councils touched
a chord amongst elite Emiratis who have wanted to
see the UAE federal government take steps towards
liberalization. Dubai's move came on the heels of
the wide-ranging political reforms undertaken by
Qatar and Bahrain. The savvy Dubbyans, wishing to
maintain their city-state's reputation as an
international business and tourism hub, realized
the importance of making a similar opening although
it is not clear if this is a genuine step toward
political liberalization.


4. (C) The Ambassador and de facto Foreign Minister
Shaykh Hamdan bin Zayid have discussed both Dubai's
announcement and the issue of political
liberalization in the UAE in general (Ref B).
Following his talks with the Ambassador, Hamdan
apparently reached out to a range of UAE statesmen,
academics and opinion makers to take the pulse.
Hamdan personally favors a gradual political
opening at this time, noting that it would be a
nice legacy for his father, UAE President Shaykh
Zayid. Given the wide respect and affection felt
across the UAE's seven emirates for Zayid, his
imprimatur would facilitate the move to
democratization. Hamdan, who realizes that the
subject of political participation will figure
higher on the bilateral agenda than in the past,
would like to preempt a formal USG approach. As he
put it to the Ambassador in April, "better we do it
our way," consonant with the UAE's cultural,
religious and social norms. The leadership is
aware of the heightened attention being given to
democratization at home and abroad. Abu Dhabi
Crown Prince Khalifa bin Zayid, in a rare press
interview, was more forward-leaning on the issue of
women's empowerment, noting that no changes would
be necessary to UAE law or the constitution in
order for women to be able to participate in the
appointed Federal National Council, but then went
on to defend the overall political status quo by
asserting that the existing domestic political
structure provides for the "inclusion of a
mechanism for consultations in decision-making."

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REFORM-MINDED EMIRATIS URGE U.S. ENGAGEMENT WITH
UAEG LEADERSHIP ON GREATER POLITICAL PARTICIPATION
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In the last several months, a few of the
individuals tapped by Hamdan have subsequently
contacted the Ambassador to push for USG
engagement. Among them was former Ambassador to
the U.S. Muhammad Al-Sha'ali who urged the
Ambassador to use her close ties to the leadership
to encourage broader participation. Al-Sha'ali and
others, noting the positive and rapid changes
taking place in Qatar and Bahrain and even the more
modest changes evidenced in Saudi Arabia, fear the
UAE is falling behind the region. The Ambassador
was also approached by Dubai notable Juma'a Al-
Majed who said a political opening is needed at the
federal level and hoped that we would use our
relationship to encourage the Feds in that
direction. Al-Majed noted that a good place to
start would be to push for greater rule of law; he
specifically mentioned that Abu Dhabi has much work
to do in this area. By contrast, in his view,
Dubai is in better shape; the Dubai courts may not
be "perfect" but they are far more independent than
the Abu Dhabi courts.


6. (C) Embassy officers have also been approached
by contacts at the working level, many of whom have
noted the increased expectation across the UAE of
an expansion of political rights. UAE University
Political Science professor Abdul Khaleq Abdullah
told us that Dubai made the right decision in
moving to elected councils (not yet implemented)
and hoped other emirates would follow suit.
Another prominent Emirati urged greater press
freedom and a more robust Federal National Council
(FNC -- the UAE's putative parliament),empowered
to discuss more than housing, education, and health
care, i.e. bread and butter, issues. None of our
contacts expect a dramatic political opening, but
rather more on the lines of a gradual move to
elected local councils and the participation of
women in politics.

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DESPITE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES, UAE SOCIETY IS
HIGHLY TOLERANT
-------------- --


7. (SBU) The UAE's lack of political participation
mechanisms is at great variance with the
considerable social, religious and economic freedom
enjoyed by nationals and non-nationals alike.
Among the greatest challenges for the Emirati
leadership is the fact that the national population
is a small percentage, estimated between 15-20
percent, of the overall population of almost 4
million. The vast majority of the foreigners hail
from South Asia -- namely Pakistan and India -- and
the UAEG closely monitors these communities to
ensure that national/communal rivalries do not
spill onto the streets of the UAE. There are also
substantial populations of expatriate Arabs,
Europeans and North Americans. The UAE leadership
realized early on that it needed a large, talented
foreign labor pool to build the country. From the
early days of the federation, some thirty-two years
ago, the UAEG has allowed foreigners to freely
pursue their religious beliefs and has taken a very
liberal attitude to the different social mores of
the diverse expatriate population. Hence, a number
of Christian denominations have churches in the UAE
and there are also Hindu and Sikh temples. The
bars and private beaches of Abu Dhabi and Dubai
could easily be mistaken for those in the
Mediterranean or southern California.

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NO GRASSROOTS PUSH FOR LIBERALIZATION...
--------------


8. (C) It is our sense that while some Emirati
elites would like to see the government take steps
towards greater political participation, there is
by no means a "grassroots" movement pressing for
democratization. Indeed, Emiratis appear to be
genuinely pleased with their rulers, particularly
founding father President Zayid who is widely loved
and respected. The Emiratis have the advantage of
living in one of the last cradle-to-grave welfare
states characterized by a small national population
and immense wealth mainly derived from the nation's
prodigious energy resources.


9. (C) Helping to relieve some of the short-term
pressure is the fact that the UAE maintains a
vibrant and healthy majlis system. These weekly
traditional gatherings of Emirati men provide an
opportunity for decision-makers to hear the
concerns of their "constituents." Many of the
senior Al-Nahyan, including Chief of Staff Muhammad
bin Zayid and MFA Minstate Hamdan bin Zayid hold
regular majlises (sometimes twice a week) which any
Emirati is permitted to attend. The same is true
in the UAE's other emirates where influential
nationals (not just rulers) gather on a regular
basis.

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...BUT MEDIUM-TERM PRESSURE IS BUILDING
--------------


10. (C) While the current strictures on political
participation are sustainable for the short-term,
we believe the Emiratis need to start assembling
the building blocks of a more representative
society given the pressures that they will
encounter across the medium-term. With a more
inclusive political structure, the leadership will
be better able to develop and sustain consensus as
the choices the government needs to make in terms
of resource allocation get tougher. At the root of
all economic/finance issues in the UAE is the fact
that each emirate retains ownership of its natural
resources. Thus Abu Dhabi's oil wealth belongs to
Abu Dhabi and is "shared" at Abu Dhabi emirate's
discretion with the Federation and other emirates.
The primary mechanism for this is Abu Dhabi's
funding of the federal budget -- the federal
payroll being the primary provider or jobs for UAE
nationals.


10. (C) The UAE's national population is growing at
an exponential rate thus increasing the need to
produce employment for nationals. The gap between
the rich and the not so well off is widening,
particularly between Abu Dhabi and the other, non-
oil producing emirates. In the poorer northern
emirates, living conditions for UAE nationals vary
from good to inadequate. In Ras Al-Khaimah, for
instance, some nationals do not have access to safe
drinking water, sufficient electricity and adequate
housing. In that regard, Abu Dhabi's decision to
build a water desalination plant in Fujairah to
ensure the supply of water for the date palm groves
of Al-Ain has not gone over well with the northern
Emiratis (nor has Abu Dhabi's opting out of the
poorly resourced federal health care system in
order to ensure better care for its residents),
highlighting some of the undercurrents of
political, social and economic tension likely to
surface in the event of more meaningful political
dialogue here.


WAHBA