MFA MINSTATE HAMDAN BIN ZAYID ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 001813

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/RA and DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/13
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM TC
SUBJECT: MFA MINSTATE HAMDAN BIN ZAYID ON
DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE UAE: SOONER
BETTER THAN LATER

REF: DUBAI 1318


1. (U) Classified by Ambassador Marcelle M. Wahba
for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D).


2. (C) During a 4/13 meeting, the Ambassador asked
for MFA Minstate Hamdan bin Zayid's opinion on
Dubai's recent decision to establish elected
district councils. Hamdan briefed that de facto
Dubai Ruler Shaykh Muhammad bin Rashid Al-Maktoum
(MbR) had not consulted with the Abu Dhabi
leadership and hinted the decision had come as a
complete surprise. Furthermore, Hamdan sniffed,
Abu Dhabi had not had time to folow-up the matter
with Dubai, as the leadership was far too busy
following events in Iraq. (Note: President Zayid
recently had a meeting with MBR, and the Dubai
rumor mill has it that Zayid asked MbR for an
explanation. End Note.)


3. (C) Hamdan told the Ambassador that he was among
those favoring an early move to democratization in
the UAE, consonant with the country's traditional
cultural, religious and social norms. As he put
it, "better we do it our way rather than waiting
for the Americans to pressure us later into doing
it their way." It would be a nice legacy for
Shaykh Zayid, in Hamdan's view, and with Zayid's
imprimatur, the move to democratization would be
more widely accepted. (Note: The implication
being that Zayid's successor, Abu Dhabi Crown
Prince Khalifa, may encounter greater resistance
from conservatives. End Note.) Lending some
urgency to the matter is the fact that all of the
other states in the region, even the Saudis, are
opening up politically, Hamdan noted.


4. (C) The situation in the UAE, Hamdan explained,
is different than in other Gulf states and
therefore the leadership needs to proceed somewhat
cautiously. For instance, the population
distribution (Emiratis comprise only 20 percent of
the overall population) and the fact that fifty
percent of Emirati nationals are naturalized
citizens must be taken into consideration. The UAE
wants to avoid the pitfalls of others in the
region, namely Kuwait, where until recently,
naturalized citizens could not vote. In addition,
Hamdan believes the UAE should start small, i.e.
elected local bodies, rather than immediately
moving to an elected federal parliament. In his
opinion, the Oman model is worthy of emulation.


5. (C) COMMENT: Reading between the lines, Dubai's
announcement came as a bombshell to Abu Dhabi.
Once again, the upstart Al-Maktoum have scooped the
more staid, conservative Al-Nahyan, in a move which
sends a dual message. One is that Dubai, Inc. is
exercising its right to run its own affairs,
without the prior approval of Abu Dhabi. We note
that Sharjah did the same when it decided to
appoint women to its consultative council two years
ago. The second message is intended for a much
wider local, regional and international audience
and is part of Dubai's effort to project an image
of a progressive, forward leaning city-state led by
a dynamic family. Dubai's leadership is intensely
aware that its continued prosperity depends on
attracting foreign investment, and it realizes that
some measure of political openness is viewed as
desirable by major investors, especially when other
regional competitors (Bahrain and Qatar) are
implementing more progressive political systems.
We also note that it is not unusual for the press
savvy Dubyyans to make a dramatic announcement --
utterly devoid of substance -- the details of which
will be filled in at a later date. Stay tuned.
END COMMENT.


6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Amconsul
Dubai.

WAHBA