MEDIA REACTION AND PUBLIC OPINION: WAR AGAINST IRAQ

UNCLAS ABU DHABI 001349

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP; NEA/PPD; NEA/RA; INR
SECDEF FOR OASD/PA
USCINCCENT FOR POLAD
LONDON FOR GOLDRICH; PARIS FOR O'FRIEL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR TC
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION AND PUBLIC OPINION: WAR AGAINST IRAQ



1. SUMMARY: THE INITIATION OF MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ
ENVELOPED PRINT AND SATELLITE TV COVERAGE IN THE UAE MEDIA. ABU
DHABI TV IS REPORTING THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS LIVE FROM BAGHDAD,
WASHINGTON, AND OTHER PLACES IN THE REGION. ABU DHABI TV ALSO
CARRIED LIVE SADDAM HUSSEIN'S MARCH 20TH SPEECH AND PRESIDENT
BUSH'S MARCH 19TH ADDRESS TO THE NATION EXPLAINING THE ONSET OF
MILITARY ACTION. AN "AL-KHALEEJ" EDITORIAL NOTES THAT IRAQ IS
ONLY THE BEGINNING AND OTHER ARAB CAPITALS WILL FOLLOW.
MEANWHILE, AN "AKHBAR AL-ARAB" EDITORIAL BLAMES SADDAM FOR THE
SUFFERING OF IRAQIS AND THE WAR. END SUMMARY.


2. UNDER THE HEADLINE 'A ROAD MAP IS PENETRATING ARAB CAPITALS,"
SHARJAH-BASED PAN-ARAB DAILY "AL-KHALEEJ" EDITORIALIZED ON 3/20:

"THE QUESTION NOW IS NOT WHETHER OR NOT THE WAR WILL START, BUT
WHAT COMES AFTER IT AND HOW LONG WILL .S. TROOPS STAY IN IRAQ?
THE MOST DANGEROUS QUESTION IS THE LEVEL OF COORDINATION BETWEEN
WASHINGTON AND TEL AVIV IN DRAWING NEW GEOPOLITICAL MAPS AND
RESHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE REGION. IT HAS BECOME KNOWN THAT
ONCE U.S. TROOPS ENTER IRAQ THEY WILL NOT DEPART, WHICH HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED BY NUMEROUS AMERICAN OFFICIALS UNDER THE PRETEXT OF
CEMENTING PEACE AND STABILITY, THE ELIMINATION OF WMD, AND
CURTAILING ANY ETHNIC DISPUTES ... IRAQ WILL ONLY BE THE STARTING
POINT TO RE-MAPPING THE MIDDLE EAST, AND THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
ISRAEL WILL PLAY A FUNDAMENTAL ROLE IN THIS ... STATEMENTS OF
AMERICAN OFFICIALS CLARIFY THAT THE WAR AGAINST IRAQ IS ONLY THE
FIRST STEP. THE LIST OF NATIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS WHICH THE U.S.
INSISTS ON LABELING AS 'TERRORISTS' IS EXTREMELY LONG, EXCEPT FOR
ISRAEL. THEREFORE, THE AMERICAN MILITARY PRESENCE WAS NOT MEANT
TO 'LIBERATE' IRAQIS, BUT TO ACHIEVE A NEW AMERICAN STRATEGY IN
THE REGION..."


3. ABU DHABI-BASED PAN-ARAB DAILY "AKHBAR AL-ARAB" 3/20
EDITORIALIZED:

"...THE U.S. AND A HANDFUL OF ITS ALLIES INSIST ON DECLARING WAR
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHILE ON THE OTHER SIDE, THE REGIME IN
IRAQ REJECTS SHOULDERING ITS HISTORICAL RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE GOD
AND THE ENTIRE NATION AND INSISTS ON RETAINING POWER UNTIL THE
LAST IRAQI CITIZEN ... WE HAVE TO ADMIT THAT WE ARE FACING A
VICIOUS POWER WHICH HAS ITS OWN AGENDA ... AND THE RIGHT THING TO
DO IN SUCH A SITUATION IS TO SAVE WHAT CAN BE SAVED AND NOT
SACRIFICE THE NATION FOR THE SAKE OF A FEW INDIVIDUALS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY THEMSELVES HAVE PROVIDED A JUSTIFICATION FOR
AN UNPRECEDENTED INTERVENTION IN THE REGION'S AFFAIRS ..."

PUBLIC OPINION READ-OUT


4. THE GENERAL MOOD IN THE UAE IS SIMILAR TO THAT ELSEWHERE IN
THE REGION. MANY EXPRESS FEELINGS OF FRUSTRATION AND DEEP
SADNESS ABOUT WHAT THEY VIEW AS A TRAGIC ENDING TO THE CRISIS.
MOST OF POST'S INTERLOCUTORS ARE CONVINCED THAT WAR HAS BECOME
INEVITABLE AS A RESULT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S STUBBORNNESS AND
REFUSAL TO STEP DOWN TO AVERT A DESTRUCTIVE WAR AGAINST IRAQ.
THIS BELIEF IS VERY STRONG IN THE UAE AND REFLECTS THE OFFICIAL
LINE OF THE UAEG FOLLOWING THE INITIATIVE IT PROPOSED DURING THE
SHARM EL-SHEIKH OIC SUMMITS. HOWEVER, THE UAE PUBLIC IS
EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR FOR OTHER
ARAB AND NEIGHBORING NATIONS AND FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE. THE
MAIN CONCERN HERE IS WORRY FOR THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND POSSIBLE
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES DURING THE WAR.


5. ONE UAE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE SUMMED UP THE POPULAR
MOOD THUS: "EVERYBODY IS CONFUSED. HOW TO REMOVE SADDAM WITHOUT
WAR? WAS IT RIGHT TO LAUNCH A WAR? NOBODY IS HAPPY WITH THE WAR,
NOBODY. WE ARE THINKING ABOUT THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND HOW TO HELP
THEM. WE HOPE THAT SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN TO SADDAM AT THE LAST
MINUTE. I WAS NOT FOR PROLONGING THE INSPECTIONS, BUT I AM VERY
CONCERNED ABOUT CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. IF THERE ARE NOT TOO MANY OF
THEM, THE US WON'T MAKE TOO MANY ENEMIES IN THE ARAB WORLD."


WAHBA