MADAGASCAR AFTER THE POLITICAL CRISIS: AVERTING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ROME 005132

SIPDIS

FROM FODAG

USAID FOR LESLIE PETERSEN, DCHA/FFP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID WFP WFP WFP WFP WFP UN
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR AFTER THE POLITICAL CRISIS: AVERTING
A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

REF: (A) ANTANANARIVO 01553

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. FODAG PROJECT BUDGET SPECIALIST VISITED MADAGASCAR
SEPTEMBER 17-27 AND TRAVELED TO DROUGHT- AND CYCLONE-
AFFECTED AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTRY.
ASSESSMENTS OF THESE AREAS, AND MEETINGS WITH
REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF MADAGASCAR (GOM),THE
DONOR COMMUNITY, THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM (WFP) AND NON-
GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (NGOS),REVEAL BOTH PROGRESS IN
THE EFFORTS TO AVERT AN HUMANITARIAN CRISIS AND CHALLENGES
TO COMBAT POCKETS OF FOOD INSECURITY AROUND THE COUNTRY.
WEAK INFRASTRUCTURE AND SCARCE RESOURCES RAISE CONCERNS
ABOUT THE ABILITY OF THE GOM, UN AGENCIES, DONORS AND NGOS
TO DELIVER FOOD AID AND TO PROVIDE MITIGATION AND
PREPAREDNESS TRAINING TO DISASTER-PRONE COMMUNITIES.

--------------
OBJECTIVES
--------------


2. FODAG PROJECT BUDGET SPECIALIST JOHN BROOKS TRAVELED TO
MADAGASCAR SEPTEMBER 17-27, 2002, TO REVIEW WFP'S FIELD
OPERATIONS AND ASSESS THE EFFORTS OF THE U.N. TOWARDS
STRENGTHENING THE GOM'S MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS STRATEGY
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 05132 01 OF 05 220709Z
FOR DEALING WITH RECURRING NATURAL DISASTERS.


3. BROOKS VISITED DROUGHT- AND CYCLONE-AFFECTED REGIONS IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTRY ALONG WITH USAID
MADAGASCAR'S DISASTER RELIEF PROGRAM SPECIALIST MONIQUE SEE
AND WFP MADAGASCAR'S DEPUTY COUNTRY DIRECTOR MICHEL
LAGUESSE. BROOKS ALSO MET WITH THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR OF
TOAMASINA, EMILE TSIZARAINA, AND REPRESENTATIVES OF THE U.N.
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (UNDP),THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM (WFP),
EUROPEAN UNION (EU),THE NATIONAL DISASTER RELIEF COMMITTEE
(CNS),THE WORLD BANK'S FOOD SECURITY PROGRAM (SEECALINE),
THE WORLD BANK, CARE INTERNATIONAL, CATHOLIC RELIEF SERVICES
(CRS),AND THE ADVENTIST DEVELOPMENT RELIEF AGENCY (ADRA).

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


4. MADAGASCAR IS THE WORLD'S FOURTH LARGEST ISLAND AND ONE
OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD. THREE OUT OF FOUR
MALAGASY HOUSEHOLDS FALL BELOW THE POVERTY LEVEL. THE
COUNTRY IS DIVIDED INTO SIX REGIONAL PROVINCES, WHICH ARE
FURTHER DIVIDED INTO ONE HUNDRED AND ELEVEN DISTRICTS. EACH
PROVINCE IS LEAD BY A REGIONAL GOVERNOR APPOINTED BY THE
PRIME MINISTER. MADAGASCAR REGULARLY EXPERIENCES NATURAL
DISASTERS, SPECIFICALLY DROUGHTS, CYCLONES AND LOCUSTS.
DROUGHTS ARE A HAZARD OF THE SOUTH, WHERE THEY LEAD TO THE
STRUGGLE TO HARVEST WATER FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, CROPS AND
LIVESTOCK. CYCLONES CAN STRIKE THE ISLAND FROM ANY COAST,
BUT PRIMARILY INFLICT DAMAGE ALONG THE COUNTRY'S EAST COAST,
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 05132 01 OF 05 220709Z
WHERE THEY DESTROY HOMES AND CROPS AND FURTHER ERODE THE
COUNTRY'S ALREADY CRUMBLING INFRASTRUCTURE. LOCUSTS
TRADITIONALLY ATTACK CROPS IN THE SOUTH BEFORE SPREADING TO
OTHER PARTS OF THE ISLAND, PARTICULARLY THE WEST AND CENTRAL
REGIONS.


5. MADAGASCAR HAS 9KM OF PAVED ROAD AND 60KM OF DIRT ROADS
FOR EVERY 100 SQUARE KM. DURING THE RAINY SEASON, ENTIRE
REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY BECOME INACCESSIBLE BECAUSE OF POOR
ROAD CONDITIONS. MADAGASCAR IS EMERGING FROM A POLITICAL
CRISIS THAT LEFT ROADS AND PORTS BLOCKED AND NATURAL
DISASTER MITIGATION AND RESPONSE SYSTEMS PARALYZED (REFTEL).
TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY, CYCLONE KESINY STRUCK THE ISLAND
DURING THE MIDST OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS, MAKING AN ALREADY
TENUOUS SITUATION - IN TERMS OF DISTRIBUTING FOOD AID -
WORSE.


6. WFP MADAGASCAR TARGETS SOME 1,519,972 BENEFICIARIES. OF
THIS AMOUNT, 815,397 ARE NUTRITIONAL SUPPLEMENT RECIPIENTS,
555,000 ARE DISASTER PRONE, AND 149,575 ARE CHILDREN
INCLUDED IN THE SCHOOL FEEDING PROGRAM.


7. WFP MADAGASCAR'S FOOD REQUIREMENTS TOTAL OVER 33,000

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTQ1009

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ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 COME-00
CTME-00 USNW-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 E-00
UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 AC-01
DCP-01 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 ACE-00 IRM-00 STR-00
TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 ECA-00 DRL-02 SAS-00
/009W
-------------- FC0992 220709Z /38
P 220623Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC 6452
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
USEU BRUSSELS 2856
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 05 ROME 005132

SIPDIS

FROM FODAG

USAID FOR LESLIE PETERSEN, DCHA/FFP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID WFP WFP WFP WFP WFP UN
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 05132 02 OF 05 220709Z
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR AFTER THE POLITICAL CRISIS: AVERTING
A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

METRIC TONS (MT). FROM THIS AMOUNT, 18,820 MT TARGET
NUTRITIONAL SUPPLEMENT RECIPIENTS, 8,700 MT BENEFIT THE
DISASTER-PRONE POPULATION AND 3,450 MT SUPPORT CHILDREN IN
THE SCHOOL FEELING PROGRAM.


8. WFP MADAGASCAR EMPLOYS NEARLY 20 UNITED NATION'S
VOLUNTEERS (UNVS)AND FIELD MONITORS TO OVERSEE ITS
OPERATIONS.

--------------
WFP WAREHOUSING
--------------


9. MISSION VISITED WFP WAREHOUSES AND TRANSITIONAL STORAGE
SPACES IN THE AREA AROUND FORT-DAUPHIN IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
IN TAMATAVE IN EAST CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. ROUGH TERRAIN AND
TIME CONSTRAINTS PREVENTED A VISIT TO TULEAR.


10. WFP RECEIVES COMMODITIES FROM TWO PRIMARY PORTS:
TAMATAVE IN EAST CENTRAL MADAGASCAR; AND TULEAR IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THE PORT AT TAMATAVE IS THE LARGEST AND MOST
ACTIVE. DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS, FACTIONS
LOYAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION CONTROLLED THIS PORT
AND EFFECTIVELY PREVENTED THE RECEIPT AND DISTRIBUTION OF
SHIPPED COMMODITIES (REFTEL).


11. AT THE TIME OF INSPECTION, WFP'S FACILITIES WERE
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 05132 02 OF 05 220709Z
STOCKED WITH RICE, CORN SOY BLEND, AND BEANS FROM VARIOUS
DONORS, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT (USG),THE
GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN (GOJ) AND GOVERNMENT OF DENMARK (GOD).


12. COMMENT: IN ADDITION TO USAID/MADAGASCAR AND
WFP/MADAGASCAR STAFF, MISSION WAS ACCOMPANIED ON A TOUR OF
THE TAMATIVE WAREHOUSE BY REPRESENTATIVES FROM CARE AND
ADRA. THE ADRA REPRESENTATIVE EXPRESSED GREAT SURPRISE AT
THE AMOUNT OF WFP COMMODITIES CURRENTLY WAREHOUSED. HE
UNDERSTOOD THAT WFP WAS AWAITING THE DELIVERY OF COMMODITIES
RELATED TO AN UPCOMING EMERGENCY APPEAL (EMOP) AND THAT HE
COULD NOT REQUEST COMMODITIES UNTIL THAT TIME BECAUSE NONE
WOULD BE AVAILABLE. THIS POINTS TO A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING
OF WFP'S OPERATIONAL METHODS AND POOR INFORMATION SHARING
BETWEEN WFP AND AN IMPLEMENTING PARTNER.


13. MISSION OBSERVED THE THEFT OF WFP COMMODITIES WHILE
TOURING THE TAMATAVE PORT STORAGE FACILITY. WFP LOGISTICS
STAFF WAS PRESENT AND CONFIRMED THAT THEFT IS A PROBLEM AT
THE FACILITY AND CONFIRMED WFP'S ONGOING EFFORTS TO RESOLVE
THE ISSUE WITH THE WAREHOUSE MANAGER. MISSION LATER LEARNED
FROM ANOTHER WFP LOGISTICS OFFICER THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
WFP COMMODITIES ARE CONTAINERIZED, AND ARE THEREFORE THEFT
RESISTANT. APPARENTLY, IT WAS JUST THIS MOST RECENT
SHIPMENT FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN THAT WAS NOT
CONTAINERIZED.


14. MINOR COMMODITY LOSS DUE TO RODENT INFESTATION AND
WATER DAMAGE WERE OBSERVED. THE ROOF ON ONE WFP-UTILIZED
WAREHOUSE WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING REPAIRED DURING
MISSION'S VISIT. END COMMENT
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 05132 02 OF 05 220709Z

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WFP AND FOOD FOR WORK
--------------


15. MISSION VISITED WFP-SUPPORTED FOOD FOR WORK (FFW)
PROJECTS INVOLVING WATER HARVESTING (I.E., WATER COLLECTING
SITES AND WELLS),ROAD REHABILITATION AND ROAD CONSTRUCTION.


16. WFP COMMODITIES WERE SUPPORTING TWO DISTINCTIVE WATER-
HARVESTING SITES. THE FIRST SITE PROVIDES COMMODITIES TO
WORKERS WHO HAVE DUG A WELL SOME FIFTY FEET INTO THE EARTH.
HARVESTERS RETRIEVED WATER FROM THIS WELL BY EITHER
DESCENDING A SERIES OF STEPS CARVED OUT OF THE EARTH OR
THROUGH A PATH CUT THROUGH THE EARTH AND LEADING DOWN INTO
THE WELL. EITHER ENTRY POINT REPRESENTED AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER PREVIOUS WELLS DUG WITHOUT THE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE OF
WFP. IN THE OLDER WELLS, WOMEN AND CHILDREN FACED STEEP AND
OFTEN PERILOUS INCLINES LEADING TO THE WATER BELOW.


17. THE SECOND WATER-HARVESTING SITE MISSION VISITED
REQUIRED HARVESTERS TO CARVE POCKETS OR CAVITIES INTO THE
ROCKY COUNTRYSIDE. EACH CAVITY MEASURED ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTQ1011

PAGE 01 ROME 05132 03 OF 05 220709Z
ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 COME-00
CTME-00 USNW-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 E-00
UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 AC-01
DCP-01 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 ACE-00 IRM-00 STR-00
TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 ECA-00 DRL-02 SAS-00
/009W
-------------- FC099A 220709Z /38
P 220623Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC 6453
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
USEU BRUSSELS 2857
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 05 ROME 005132

SIPDIS

FROM FODAG

USAID FOR LESLIE PETERSEN, DCHA/FFP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID WFP WFP WFP WFP WFP UN
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 05132 03 OF 05 220709Z
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR AFTER THE POLITICAL CRISIS: AVERTING
A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

DEEP AND ONE FOOT ACROSS. INTO THESE CAVITIES RAINWATER
WOULD COLLECT. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS WELL THAT WAS VISITED,
THE COMMUNITY MAINTAINED CONTROLLED-ACCESS OVER THIS WATER-
HARVESTING POINT AS A WAY OF BOTH ENSURING THE CAVITIES
WOULD COLLECT ENOUGH WATER AND INSTILLING WATER-USAGE
DISCIPLINE WITHIN THE COMMUNITY.


18. MISSION ALSO WITNESSED FFW ACTIVITIES THAT SUPPORTED
ROAD REHABILITATION AND CONSTRUCTION. ALONG THE EAST COAST,
THESE ACTIVITIES INVOLVE THE CLEARING OF TREES AND OTHER
FALLEN DEBRIS LEFT IN THE CYCLONE'S WAKE. THEY ALSO INVOLVE
REMOVING TONS OF EARTH THAT RENDER NATIONAL, SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS IMPASSABLE AS A RESULT THE MUDSLIDES CAUSED
BY THE HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE.


19. IN THE SOUTH, WFP'S FFW PROJECTS ARE USED TO CARVE
ROADS THOUGH THE OTHERWISE FORBIDDING BUSH. THESE ROADS
HELP TO LINK COMMUNITIES, WHOSE INHABITANTS PARTICIPATE IN
WFP SCHOOL FEEDING PROGRAMS, OR PROVIDE EASIER ACCESS TO
WATER-HARVESTING POINTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

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DISASTER MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS
--------------


20. THE UNITED NATION'S DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (UNDP) TOOK THE
LEAD IN WORKING WITH THE GOM TOWARDS DEVELOPING A NATIONAL
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 05132 03 OF 05 220709Z
STRATEGY TO ASSIST THE COUNTRY IN MITIGATING AND PREPARING
FOR DISASTERS, BOTH MAN-MADE AND NATURAL. THIS PLAN, KNOWN
AS THE NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT, WAS
DEVELOPED IN 2000 AND WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING PASSED
INTO LAW WHEN THE POLITICAL CRISIS BEGAN.


21. THE GOM'S STRATEGY IS COORDINATED THROUGH THE NATIONAL
DISASTER RELIEF COMMITTEE OR CNS. THE STRATEGY RECOGNIZES
THAT MADAGASCAR IS BOTH DISASTER PRONE AND RESOURCE POOR AND
SEEKS TO ESTABLISH A WORKABLE FRAMEWORK ON THE NATIONAL,
PROVINCIAL, LOCAL AND COMMUNITY LEVELS.


22. THE STRATEGY IDENTIFIES A GOVERNMENTAL LEAD AGENCY AS
WELL AS SUPPORT AGENCIES SPECIFIC TO A PARTICULAR EMERGENCY.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR TAKES THE LEAD WITH
RESPECT TO CYCLONES AND DROUGHT, WHILE THE MINISTRY OF
AGRICULTURE IS THE LEAD AGENCY IN RELATION TO LOCUSTS. IN
ADDITION TO SUPPORTING EACH OTHER, THESE AGENCIES RECEIVE
SUPPORT FROM OTHER GOM MINISTRIES, PARTICULARLY
TRANSPORTATION.


23. ON THE LOCAL AND COMMUNITY LEVELS, THE STRATEGY WORKS
WITH UN VOLUNTEERS TOWARDS SENSITIZING THE POPULATION AND
HELPING THEM PREPARE FOR DISASTERS. THE STRATEGY ALSO
EMPLOYS A DISASTER PREPAREDNESS CURRICULUM THAT HAS BEEN
USED IN SCHOOLS.

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LOCUSTS
--------------
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 05132 03 OF 05 220709Z


24. LOCUSTS ARE A SPECIALIZED TYPE OF GRASSHOPPER. THEY
OCCUR EVERY YEAR IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, PRINCIPALLY ON
THE HOROMBE PLATEAU, WHERE THEY ARE INDIGENOUS. THE TWO
MOST COMMON SPECIES, RED LOCUSTS AND THE MADAGASCAR
MIGRATORY LOCUSTS ARE TYPICALLY IN THE SOLITARY, NON-
MIGRATORY FORM, AND SELDOM CAUSE ECONOMICALLY SIGNIFICANT
CROP DAMAGE WHEN IN THIS RECESSIONAL PHASE.


25. HOWEVER, WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME OPTIMAL,
THESE LOCUSTS MULTIPLY RAPIDLY AND DEVELOP INTO A MORE
ROBUST MIGRATORY FORM. IN THIS PHASE, BOTH SPECIES CAN
MIGRATE GREAT DISTANCES, AND SO BECOME A MAJOR THREAT TO
CROPS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS WHERE
RICE IS A MAJOR CROP. LOCUSTS PLAGUES CAN AND HAVE IN THE
PAST UNDERMINED THE FOOD SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY.


26. BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS PREVENTATIVE MEASURES
LIKE THE SPRAYING OF PESTICIDES COULD NOT BE TAKEN TO DEAL
WITH THE COUNTRY'S LOCUST PROBLEM (REF TEL). HAD IT BEEN
POSSIBLE TO SPRAY CROPS BETWEEN JANUARY AND JUNE, THE
LOCUSTS COULD HAVE BEEN CONTROLLED. AS IT TURNS OUT, THEY
CAN ONLY HOPE TO CONTAIN THE LOCUSTS - IF SPRAYING CAN

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO6954

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ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 COME-00
CTME-00 USNW-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 E-00
UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 AC-01
DCP-01 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 ACE-00 IRM-00 STR-00
TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 ECA-00 DRL-02 SAS-00
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-------------- FC09A1 220710Z /38
P 220623Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC 6454
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
USEU BRUSSELS 2858
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 05 ROME 005132

SIPDIS

FROM FODAG

USAID FOR LESLIE PETERSEN, DCHA/FFP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID WFP WFP WFP WFP WFP UN
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 05132 04 OF 05 220710Z
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR AFTER THE POLITICAL CRISIS: AVERTING
A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

COMMENCE IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER.


27. THE WORLD BANK ANTICIPATES CONTRIBUTING BETWEEN USD 1
AND 1.5 MILLION TOWARDS LOCUSTS CONTROL. HOWEVER, THIS
FUNDING IS CONDITIONAL UPON THE RESULTS OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT STUDY OF THE WOULD-BE PESTICIDE, FIPRONIL.


28. THE WORLD BANK HIGHLIGHTED THE FOLLOWING THREE OPTIONS
SPECIFIC TO THE LOCUSTS PROBLEM:

- DON'T SPRAY AT ALL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT.

- REDUCE THE LEVEL OF THE PESTICIDE FIPRONIL AND USE AN
ALTERNATIVE PESTICIDE. THIS OPTION WOULD REQUIRE TARGETING
LOCUSTS DURING THEIR PARTICULAR DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES. IT
WOULD ALSO REQUIRE GREATER LOGISTICAL CONTROL, WHICH IS
EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE COUNTRY'S WEAK
INFRASTRUCTURE.

- SPRAY FIPRONIL WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT A FOLLOW-UP
ASSESSMENT WOULD NEED TO BE CONDUCTED.


29. THESE DECISIONS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE REALITY
THAT LOCUSTS ARE USED AS A FOOD COMMODITY FOR CERTAIN TRIBES
OF MALAGASY.


30. THE WORLD BANK INDICATED IT WOULD COST BETWEEN USD 4-5
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 05132 04 OF 05 220710Z
MILLION USD TO CONTAIN THE LOCUSTS USING A PESTICIDE.
ALTERNATIVELY, IF THE CROPS ARE NOT TREATED WITH THE
PESTICIDE, THE COST COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 TIMES HIGHER IN
TERMS OF DECIMATED CROPS AND INCREASED FOOD INSECURITY.


31. THE EU HAS PLEDGED TO COMMIT 1 MILLION EURO THROUGH ITS
EMERGENCY FUND OR ECHO TOWARDS LOCUSTS CONTAINMENT.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE EU WILL NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON
THIS PLEDGE UNTIL THE WORLD BANK HAS MADE ITS DECISION
SPECIFIC TO AN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT.

--------------
DROUGHT
--------------


32. THE EU HAS DEVELOPED AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OR SAP
(SYSTEME D'ALERTE PRECOCE) TO ALERT THE GOM, OTHER DONORS,
WFP AND ITS IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS TO AN EMERGING DROUGHT.
EACH MONTH, SAP STAFF ANALYZES CHANGES RELATIVE TO THREE
FACTORS: SOCIOECONOMIC, MARKETS AND AGRICULTURE.


33. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, SAP PRODUCES A FORECAST TWICE
ANNUALLY (APRIL AND JULY) WHICH CAN BE USED FOR DROUGHT
PREPARATION AND MITIGATION.


34. WFP USES ANALYSIS FROM SAP TO ASSIST ITS EFFORTS TO
PREPOSITION COMMODITIES TO AREAS OF GREATEST NEED.

--------------
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 05132 04 OF 05 220710Z
INFRASTRUCTURE
--------------


35. MADAGASCAR'S POOR INFRASTRUCTURE RENDERS POCKETS OF THE
POPULATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOOD SHORTAGES.


36. ONE KEY UTILITY OF USG TITLE II COMMODITIES HAS BEEN
ITS SUPPORT OF FFW INITIATIVES THAT WORK TO REPAIR AND
MAINTAIN SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS.


37. WORLD BANK'S RURAL DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT PROJECT WORKS TO
ASSIST LOCAL FARMER ASSOCIATIONS IN INFRASTRUCTURE
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. SUCH PROJECTS INCLUDE WORK ON
ROADS AND IRRIGATION.


38. THE EU HAS PLEDGED 100 MILLION EURO OVER THE NEXT FIVE
YEARS TOWARDS SUPPORTING MADAGASCAR'S RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND
FOOD SECURITY NEEDS. THIS INCLUDES SUPPORT FOR IRRIGATION,
RURAL ROAD DEVELOPMENT AND WATER-HARVESTING PROJECTS.

--------------
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTQ1016

PAGE 01 ROME 05132 05 OF 05 220710Z
ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 COME-00
CTME-00 USNW-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 E-00
UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 AC-01
DCP-01 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 ACE-00 IRM-00 STR-00
TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 ECA-00 DRL-02 SAS-00
/009W
-------------- FC09AF 220710Z /38
P 220623Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC 6455
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
USEU BRUSSELS 2859
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 05 ROME 005132

SIPDIS

FROM FODAG

USAID FOR LESLIE PETERSEN, DCHA/FFP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID WFP WFP WFP WFP WFP UN
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 05132 05 OF 05 220710Z
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR AFTER THE POLITICAL CRISIS: AVERTING
A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

--------------


39. MADAGASCAR'S POOR INFRASTRUCTURE RENDERS POCKETS OF THE
POPULATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOOD INSECURITY, PARTICULARLY IN
ISOLATED, REMOTE AREAS. FURTHER, EFFORTS TO IMPROVE THE
COUNTRY'S WEAK INFRASTRUCTURE SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED AND
SUPPORTED.


40. GIVEN THE LACK OF UNDERSTANDING AMONG WFP'S
IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS WITH RESPECT TO THE ORGANIZATION'S
REQUEST FOR COMMODITY AND NON-FOOD ASSISTANCE, IN-COUNTRY
NGOS SHOULD BE TRAINED TO UNDERSTAND HOW WFP'S ASSISTANCE-
REQUEST PROCESS WORKS. WFP/MADAGASCAR SHOULD TAKE THE LEAD
IN THIS TRAINING.


41. WFP SHOULD IMPROVE INFORMATION SHARING WITH ITS
IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS RELATIVE TO THE LEVEL OF AVAILABLE
COMMODITIES IN-COUNTRY AND IN-WAREHOUSE AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
THIS WOULD BETTER FACILITATE THE COMMODITY REQUEST PROCESS
BETWEEN WFP AND ITS IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS.


42. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WFP COMMODITY THEFT FROM PORT,
EFFORTS SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN TO FACILITATE FASTER REMOVAL OF
DONATED COMMODITIES FROM PORT TO WFP-CONTROLLED WAREHOUSES.


43. PERIODICALLY, WFP SHOULD INFORM USAID/MADAGASCAR OF ITS
ONGOING USG-DONATED COMMODITY RECEIPT TO COMMODITY LOSS
RATIO.
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 05132 05 OF 05 220710Z


44. DESPITE THE FACT THAT A NATIONAL PLAN EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO DISASTER MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS, MISSION
FOUND LOCAL NGOS TO BE SOMEWHAT UNAWARE OF HOW SUCH A SYSTEM
ACTUALLY WORKED ON THE LOCAL AND COMMUNITY LEVELS. THIS
INDICATES POOR COORDINATION AND COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE
GOM AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS. ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
CORRECT THIS PROBLEM.


45. MISSION UNDERSTOOD THAT MEETINGS BETWEEN GOM
REPRESENTATIVES, THE UN AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS WERE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC BEFORE CYCLONE KESINY. EFFORTS SHOULD BE
MADE TO BUILD UPON THE TYPE OF COLLABORATION BROUGHT ABOUT
AS A RESULT OF THE NEED TO RESPOND TO CYCLONE KESINY.


46. ALTHOUGH WFP IS DOING AN ADMIRABLE JOB WITH THE TOOLS
CURRENTLY AT ITS DISPOSAL, REQUESTS FOR ADDITIONAL FOOD AND
NON-FOOD ASSISTANCE SHOULD BE SUPPORTED, INCLUDING:

- SUPPORT FOR WFP'S SOON-TO-BE-RELEASED EMERGENCY APPEAL
(EMOP),WHICH WILL TARGET 394,250 BENEFICIARIES (216,837 OF
WHOM ARE WOMEN) WITH 18,398 MT OF FOOD. THIS 6-MONTH EMOP
REPRESENTS 8,430,629 USD IN TOTAL COSTS TO WFP, WHICH
INCLUDES 5,042,940 OF FOOD COSTS;

- NON-FOOD ITEMS, SUCH AS: WHEELBARROWS, SHOVELS, ROAD-
BUILDING AND SUPPORT MATERIALS (WFP REPORTS THAT A STANDARD
TOOK KIT, DEVELOPED BY CARE, WOULD SUPPORT 1,000 WORKERS AND
CAN BE USED FOR ROAD REHABILITATION, CONSTRUCTION OF SMALL
DAMS AND FIELD DRAINAGE. ONE SUCH KIT IS ESTIMATED TO COST
USD 6500. WFP PLACES ITS NEED AT 40 KITS); HEAVY, EARTH
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 05132 05 OF 05 220710Z
MOVING EQUIPMENT LIKE BULLDOZERS; TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO
ASSIST IN BUILD AND ROAD RECONSTRUCTION (WFP ESTIMATES THAT
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR 6 MONTHS WOULD COST APPROXIMATELY
USD 22,500 FOR THREE ENGINEERS); UP-TO-DATE MAPS OF THE
COUNTRY (WFP'S COST ESTIMATE IS USD 2,000); AND
COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT LIKE RADIOS (WFP ESTIMATES THAT
RADIO CODAN WITH MODEM, POWER SUPPLY AND ANTENNA WOULD COST
APPROXIMATELY USD 7,000 PER UNIT. WFP PLACES ITS ACTUAL
NEED AT 7 UNITS. AND TO LINK WFP'S FORT DAUPHIN FIELD
OFFICE VIA VSAT WITH IP ADDRESS WOULD COST APPROXIMATELY USD
24,400 PER YEAR.);

- FUNDING FOR ADDITIONAL UN VOLUNTEERS THAT CAN BE ASSIGNED
TO STRATEGIC, REMOTE, AND ISOLATED COMMUNITIES;

- RE-FORESTATION, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOST CYCLONE-PRONE
AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. HALL

UNCLASSIFIED

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2002ROME05132 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED