Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ROME4756
2002-10-02 05:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ERITREAN MAIN CROP SEASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES

Tags:  EAID AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 004756 

SIPDIS

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04756 01 OF 03 020545Z
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

AMEMBASSY ASMARA FOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR
CHEEMA
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP SEASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES
AHEAD

REF: (A) ASMARA 1290
-------
SUMMARY
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 004756

SIPDIS

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04756 01 OF 03 020545Z
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

AMEMBASSY ASMARA FOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR
CHEEMA
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP SEASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES
AHEAD

REF: (A) ASMARA 1290
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE VISITED ERITREA
SEPTEMBER 20-26, AND TRAVELED EXTENSIVELY IN DROUGHT
AFFECTED REGIONS. PROSPECTS FOR THE CURRENT MAIN "KIREMTI"
HARVEST CROPS AND REGENERATION OF PASTURES ARE POOR
FOLLOWING SEVERE AND PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE
COUNTRY'S MOST GRAIN PRODUCTIVE AREAS. WIDESPREAD DROUGHT
WILL EXACERBATE A FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION ALREADY STRESSED BY
DISPLACEMENT OF WAR-AFFECTED POPULATIONS, THE INFLUX OF
DEPORTEES FROM ETHIOPIA, AND THE CONTINUING REPATRIATION OF
REFUGEES FROM SUDAN. END SUMMARY.

--------------
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 04756 01 OF 03 020545Z
BACKGROUND
--------------


2. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE TIM LAVELLE VISITED
ERITREA SEPTEMBER 20-26, 2002, AND TRAVELED WITH THE
ERITREAN RELIEF AND REFUGEE COMMISSION'S (ERREC) DIRECTOR
GENERAL FOR RELIEF AND LOGISTICS IBRAHIM SAID, WORLD FOOD
PROGRAM COUNTRY DIRECTOR PATRICK BUCKLEY (IRISH CITIZEN) AND
STAFF (THE TRIP'S ABLE FACILITATOR) AND UNHCR FIELD OFFICERS
THOUGHOUT THE FOLLOWING REGIONS: ANSEBA, GASH BARCA AND

DEDUB. THE TEAM LOGGED 1,067 KILOMETERS BY ROAD OVER FOUR
DAYS, IN ORDER TO ACCESS FIRST HAND THE PRESENT DROUGHT
SITUATION.


3. IN GENERAL, ERITREA SUFFERS FROM CHRONIC FOOD SHORTAGES.
IN GOOD YEARS, THE COUNTRY PRODUCES ONLY ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF
ITS TOTAL FOOD NEEDS AND IN POORER YEARS NO MORE THAN 50
PERCENT. INSOFAR AS MOST FARMERS IN ERITREA PRACTICE RAINFED
AGRICULTURE, FARMERS ARE CONSISTENTLY FACED WITH ANNUAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN BOTH OUTPUT AND PRICES. EVEN IN GOOD YEARS,
MOST SMALL FARMERS DO NOT PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD TO FEED THEIR
FAMILIES FOR MORE THAN SIX-NINE MONTHS. THIS MEANS THAT FARM
FAMILIES NEED ACCESS TO NON-FARM INCOME OR TO FOOD AID TO
SUBSIST.


4. AS A RESULT OF PERIODIC FOOD SHORTAGES, CHILD
MALNUTRITION IS HIGH. ABOUT 38 PERCENT OF CHILDREN UNDER
FIVE ARE STUNTED (LOW HEIGHT FOR AGE),16 PERCENT ARE WASTED
(LOW WEIGHT FOR AGE),AND 44 PERCENT OF CHILDREN ARE
UNDERWEIGHT.

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 04756 01 OF 03 020545Z

5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN RURAL AREAS IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW PRODUCTIVITY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICES AND CREDIT, POOR FARM-TO-
MARKET ROADS, ETC., THERE IS LITTLE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS
SITUATION IS GOING TO AMELIORATE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THE FAO OPINES THAT "THE GREEN REVOLUTION HAS BYPASSED
ERITREA."


6. AS A MATTER OF GOVERNMENT POLICY, INTERNATIONAL NGOS ARE
RELEGATED LARGELY TO NON-IMPLEMENTATIVE ROLES. GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF TECHNICALLY QUALIFIED ERITREANS BOTH WITHIN THE
GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL NGO SECTOR, PROJECT DESIGN AND
IMPLEMENTATION CAN BE A SLOW PROCESS.

--------------
WHERE WE ARE AT PRESENT
--------------


7. POOR RAINS THIS YEAR HAVE DISRUPTED THE TWO PLANTING
SEASONS AND THE SITUATION HAS BEEN FURTHER AGGRAVATED BY
ADVERSE EFFECTS ON THE REGENERATION OF ESSENTIAL
PASTURELANDS AND GROUND-WATER SUPPLIES. AN ESTIMATED ONE
MILLION ERITREANS, 80-90 PERCENT OF WHOM ARE LIVING IN RURAL
AREAS, ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE 2002
DROUGHTS. IN ADDITION TO INSUFFICIENT RAINFALL, OTHER

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO5335

PAGE 01 ROME 04756 02 OF 03 020545Z
ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 EVG-00 CIAE-00
COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 USNW-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00
EUR-00 E-00 UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OES-01 OIC-02
OMB-01 IRM-00 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 ECA-00
PRM-00 SAS-00 /006W
-------------- F0196F 020731Z /38
P 020513Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ASMARA PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6105
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2309
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
USEU BRUSSELS 2834

USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04756 02 OF 03 020545Z
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 004756

SIPDIS

FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

AMEMBASSY ASMARA FOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR
CHEEMA
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP SEASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES
AHEAD

FACTORS INCLUDE THE LACK OF DRAUGHT ANIMALS, PESTS, GROWING
WEED INFESTATION AND A REDUCED WORKFORCE WITH A GOODLY
NUMBER OF ABLE-BODIED 18-40 YEAR OLDS WHO ARQNLISTED INTO
NATIONAL SERVICE.


8. WHILE THE FINAL 2002 "KIREMTI" PRODUCTION TALLY WILL NOT
BE KNOWN FOR ANOTHER ONE-TWO MONTHS, AN APPROXIMATE
BREAKDOWN OF THE NEED FOR 2003 IS PRESENTED AS FOLLOWS:

-DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION - 537,000 METRIC TONS (MTS)
-DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - 100,000 MTS (90,000 MTS GRAINS)
-GSE CARRYOVER STOCKS - 50,000 MTS
-U.S. TITLE I 2002 - 54,000 MTS (WILL BE USED IN 2003)
-WFP PRRO DONATION - 60,000 MTS (SOLICITED FOR 2003)
-GSE COMMERCIAL IMPORTS 80,000 MTS
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 04756 02 OF 03 020545Z
-PRIVATE SECTOR IMPORTS 10,000 MTS
-INFORMAL CROSS-BORDER 80,000 MTS (FROM/THROUGH SUDAN)
-NGO FOOD DONATIONS - 17,000 MTS (SOLICITED FOR 2003)
-BUFFER STOCK NEEDS - 60,000 MTS

FOOD AID REQUIREMENT - 150,000 MTS (ESTIMATE/END SEPTEMBER)


9. NOTE: THIS ESTIMATE IS LOWER THAN THE LATEST GOE'S APPEAL
REQUEST (RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 2) ASKING FOR 400,000 MTS OF
GRAIN. WFP IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF LAUNCHING AN EMERGENCY
APPEAL (EMOP) FOR CALENDAR YEAR 2003 FOR 140,400 MTS OF FOOD
ASSISTANCE TO MEET THE NEEDS OF 600,000 DROUGHT-AFFECTED
VULNERABLE PERSONS. END NOTE.

--------------
OTHER FACTORS
--------------


10. THE GOVERNMENT OF DENMARK ANNOUNCED IN JANUARY 2002 A
RADICAL DOWNSIZING IN ITS DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE TO ERITREA
(TO BE TERMINATED FULLY IN 2005). THIS HAS SUBSTANTIVELY
IMPACTED ON THE 2002-OPERATING BUDGET OF THE GOVERNMENT'S
(GSE) MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE. MOREOVER, ERITREA CONTINUES
TO DEAL WITH APPROXIMATELY 60,000 INTERNALLY DISPLACED
(LIVING IN MAKESHIFT CAMPS) AND RESETTLING SOME 100,000
REPATRIATED RETURNEES. FINALLY, WHILE THE HIV PREVALENCE
RATE IS PRESENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN 3 PERCENT AMONG
ADULTS, THERE IS CONCERN THAT HIV/AIDS AWARENESS CAMPAIGNS
NEED TO BE INTENSIFIED PARTICULARLY FOR NATIONAL SERVICE
PERSONNEL IN ORDER TO PREVENT FUTURE ECONOMIC IMPACT.

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 04756 02 OF 03 020545Z
--------------
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
--------------


11. FOOD TONNAGE AND BENEFICIARY NUMBERS WILL NEED TO BE
FURTHER REFINED BY A FINAL CROP ASSESSMENT IN OCTOBER (AFTER
THE RAINS STOP). RATHER THAN WAITING FOR THE FINAL CROP
ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT, HOWEVER, DONORS SHOULD RESPOND
WITH AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF ADEQUATE
QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID, TO ARRIVE BEFORE THE COMMENCEMENT OF
THE "HUNGRY SEASON" IN FEBRUARY 2003.


12. ESTABLISHMENT OF A NATIONAL NUTRITION SURVEILLANCE
SYSTEM IN COLLABORATION WITH WFP AND ITS UN AGENCY PARTNERS
IS STRONGLY ENCOURAGED. THIS WILL BE A VITAL STEP IN
DETERMINING THE INCIDENCE, GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, AND
EXTENT OF CHRONIC AND SEASONAL MALNUTRITION, INCLUDING
VULNERABILITY PROFILES BY GENDER, BACKGROUND AND AGE.


13. DONORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO WORK WITH THE GSE ON IMPROVING
THE NATIONAL CAPACITY TO COMMERCIALLY IMPORT FOOD ON TIME TO
WHERE IT IS NEEDED.


14. ERITREA NEEDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO ENHANCE ITS CAPACITY
TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE DROUGHT "CLIMATOLOGY" OF THE
COUNTRY AND STRENGTHEN ITS ABILITY TO MANAGE DROUGHT RISKS.


15. ERITREAN FARMERS HAVE WELL-ESTABLISHED AND STRONG

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTQ8232

PAGE 01 ROME 04756 03 OF 03 020547Z
ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00 UTED-00
FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OES-01 OIC-02 OMB-01 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 EPAE-00 ECA-00 PRM-00 SAS-00 /005W
-------------- F02392 020905Z /38
P 020513Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY SMARA PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORIY 6106
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2310
INO RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY DDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
EU MEBER STATES COLLECTIVE

AMEMBSSY OTTAWA
USEU BRUSSELS 2835

USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION ENEVA

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04756 03 OF 03 020547Z
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 004756

SIPDIS

FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

AMEMBASSY ASMARAFOR AMBASSADOR MCCONNEL AND USAID DIRECTOR
CHEEM
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FO U/S PENN AND RTILSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MAIN CROP EASON DROUGHT - DIFFICULT TIMES
AHEAD
TRADITINAL COPING MECHANISMS. THIS YEAR'S POOR MAIN SEASON
HARVEST WILL SORELY TEST THE SYSTEM AS THE YIELD
ANTICIPATED WILL ONLY PROVIDE FARM FAMILIES WIT A TWO-FOUR
MONTH FOOD SUPPLY UNTIL NEXT FALL'S ARVEST. PASTURAGE AND
DRINKING WATER FOR ANIMALSWILL BE IN CRITICALLY SHORT
SUPPLY FROM FEBRUARY 2003 ONWARDS. FAO IS ADVISED TO
INTENSIFY ITS INVLVEMENT IN APPROPRIATE FODDER CULTIVATION.


16. N THE MEDIUM-TERM, TO IMPROVE AGRICULTURAL
PRODUTIVITY, FAO RECOMMENDS THE FOLLOWING "QUICK WIN"
INTERVENTIONS: (I) IMPROVED PEST CONTROL SYSTEMS, (II)
EXPANDED SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS (III)
INCREASED USE AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL, FST-MATURING AND
DROUGHT-RESISTANT CROPS, (IV) REABILITATED, IMPROVED AND
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 04756 03 OF 03 020547Z
EXPANDED IRRIGATION SCHMES, (V) GREATER ACCESS TO
SUSTAINABLE RURAL CREDIT SERVICES, (VI) MORE EFFECTIVE
DISTRIBUTION OF ERTILIZERS, (VII) IMPROVED ANIMAL HUSBANDRY
PRACICES AND (VIII) BETTER ANIMAL HEALTH SERVICES.


7. FINALLY, WE NEED TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF FOOD AD
DEPENDENCY. BEGINNING IN 1996, THE GOE PROHIBITED ALL FOOD-
FOR-WORK ACTIVITIES. FREE DISTRIBUTIN IS PRESENTLY ALLOWED
UNDER EMERGENCY OPERATION AND SCHOOL FEEDING. RURAL WORKS
ARE AT TIMES CARIED OUT USING CASH-FOR-WORK. GIVEN THAT
CASH ISSHORT AND PROJECTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AGRICULTURAL
SECTOR, NEED ACCELERATED IMPLEMENTATION (E.G., HE FREQUENCY
OF DROUGHTS OVER THE PAST DECADE SHW A MARKED INCREASE),
FOOD-FOR-WORK CAN BE AN EXELLENT WAY OF ENGAGING ABLE-
BODIED BENEFICIARY POPULATIONS IN PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES.
MOREOVER, WFP HAS GREATLY AIDED AGRICULTURAL PROGRESS IN
CHINA, VIETNAM, BANGLADESH, ETHIOPIA AND INDIA - THROUGH
SUSTAINED FOOD-FOR-WORK INTERVENTIONS. THE GSE IS ENCOURAGED
TO REVISIT ITS PROHIBITION POLICY ON FOOD-FOR-WORK
UNDERTAKINGS. #HALL

UNCLASSIFIED

>
2002ROME04756 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED