ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 004735

SIPDIS

FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04735 01 OF 03 301506Z
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS
FORSEEN

REF: (A) ADDIS ABABA 3199, (B) ADDIS ABABA 3111

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SUMMARY
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1. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE VISITED ETHIOPIA
SEPTEMBER 16-20, AND TRAVELED IN DROUGHT AFFECTED WOREDAS OF
EAST AND WEST HARARGE REGION. ASSESSMENTS OF THIS AREA, IN
ADDITION TO TIGRAY, WOLLO AND THE SOUTHERN REGION - SHOW A
SERIOUS EMERGENCY SITUATION DEVELOPING AS THE MAJOR (MEHER)
CROP RAINS DRAW TO A CLOSE. CROP LOSSES ARE WIDESPREAD,
PARTICULARLY IN ETHIOPIA'S MIDLANDS AND LOWLANDS IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AREAS.
MANY VULNERABLE GROUPS, PARTICULARLY CHILDREN, WILL REQUIRE
CONTINUING FOOD AND NON-FOOD SUPPORT TO MEET THEIR BASIC
NEEDS, PARTICULARLY IN 2003. END SUMMARY.

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UNCLASSIFIED

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BACKGROUND - "DOES THE ROAD LEAD UP HILL ALL THE WAY? YES,
TO THE VERY END."
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2. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE TIM LAVELLE VISITED
ETHIOPIA SEPTEMBER 16-20, 2002, AND TRAVELED WITH DISASTER
PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS (DPCC) COMMISSIONER SIMON
MECHALE, USAID ETHIOPIA'S TIM SHORTLEY, AND WORLD FOOD
PROGRAM STAFF (THE TRIP'S ABLE FACILITATOR) VIA VEHICLE AND
ETHIOPIAN ARMY-PROVIDED HELICOPTER THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS,
MIDLANDS AND LOWLANDS OF EAST AND WEST HARARGE, WHERE AN
ESTIMATED 2 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY AFFECTED THIS
YEAR BY SERIOUS DROUGHT (REF A).


3. ETHIOPIA IS BIGGER THAN FRANCE AND SPAIN COMBINED, AND
WITH AROUND 65 MILLION, HAS THE THIRD LARGEST POPULATION IN
AFRICA. EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVE IN RURAL
AREAS. ITS GDP PER CAPITA IS USD 100. A MAJOR FEATURE OF THE
CLIMATE IS THE UNRELIABLE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. ETHIOPIA
SUFFERED TWO LARGE-SCALE, DROUGHT-INDUCED FAMINES IN RECENT
TIMES (1973/74 AND 1983/84),AND, THANKS TO MASSIVE DONOR
SUPPORT, SUCCESSFULLY AVERTED FAMINE IN 1999/2000.


4. ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE COUNTRY'S TRADITIONAL DROUGHT-
AFFECTED POPULATIONS LIVE IN THREE REGIONS: TIGRAY, WOLLO
AND HARARGE. SINCE THE 1983-84 FAMINE, ETHIOPIA HAS RECEIVED
AN ANNUAL AVERAGE LEVEL OF 700,000 MTS OF FOOD AID, WHICH
PRESENTLY MEETS APPROXIMATELY 15 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S
FOOD NEEDS. AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 MILLION PEOPLE IN ETHIOPIA
REQUIRE RELIEF ASSISTANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR IRRESPECTIVE OF
CLIMATIC SHOCKS.
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 04735 01 OF 03 301506Z


5. IN EARLY 2002, THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT (GFDRE) APPEALED
FOR SOME 557,000 TONS OF FOOD ASSISTANCE FOR UP TO 5 MILLION
PERSONS WHO WERE ADJUDGED UNABLE TO MEET THEIR FOOD
CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE YEAR.
THROUGH MID-SEPTEMBER, THE TOTAL RESPONSE (INCLUDING A GFDRE
INPUT OF 45,000 TONS) EQUALED 392,000 TONS (70 PERCENT).
PRESENT ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE MAIN SEASON FOOD CROP
PRODUCTION WILL FALL BY A RANGE OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT AS
COMPARED TO THE LAST FOUR-YEAR AVERAGE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE
PRICE OF MAIZE (A BASIC STAPLE) HAS RISEN TO ADDIS ABABA BY
66 PERCENT OVER THE PAST FIVE MONTHS.


6. INDEPENDENT OF THE PRESENTLY UNFOLDING DROUGHT, 1998-2000
WAR-INDUCED POPULATION DISPLACEMENTS, AND LIMITED PURCHASING
POWER IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, CONSIDER:

-APPROXIMATELY ONE-FIFTH OF ETHIOPIAN CHILDREN DIE BEFORE
REACHING THEIR 5TH BIRTHDAY;

-ETHIOPIA'S AGROECOSYSTEMS ARE AFFLICTED BY CHRONIC
ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS. EROSION IS AN EVER-PRESENT THREAT
PARTICULARLY TO FARMERS IN THE HIGHLANDS. SOIL QUALITY AND
LAND PRODUCTIVITY IS LOW; CEREAL YIELDS STAGNATED BETWEEN

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO8797

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ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 USNW-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00
UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00
DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OES-01 OIC-02 OMB-01 IRM-00
STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 PRM-00 SAS-00
/006W
-------------- EF0B1B 301526Z /38
P 301436Z SEP 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6072
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2303
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ASMARA
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
USEU BRUSSELS 2830
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 004735

SIPDIS

FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS
FORSEEN

1980-1997 AT AROUND 1.2 TONS PER HECTARE. AGRICULTURAL
EXTENSION IS ENTIRELY IN THE HANDS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND
FARMERS' PARTICIPATION IS LIMITED;
-ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS AGO, ETHIOPIA WAS 50 PERCENT
FOREST. THE LEVEL TODAY IS LESS THAN FIVE PERCENT;

-A RECENT ASSESSMENT ON FOOD SECURITY CONCLUDED THAT
NUTRITIONAL STANDARDS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY OVER THE PAST 15
YEARS. IN NORMAL YEARS, 40 PERCENT OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS DO
NOT PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD OR INCOME TO MEET THEIR BASIC
NUTRITIONAL NEEDS. FAO ESTIMATES THAT 49 PERCENT OF
ETHIOPIA'S POPULATION IS UNDERNOURISHED;

-FOR CHILDREN UNDER 6, ALMOST TWO THIRDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
SUFFER FROM STUNTING, AND OVER 10 PERCENT FROM WASTING;

-WHILE MANY OF ETHIOPIA'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS MAY BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE DISASTROUS ECONOMIC LEGACY OF THE DERGUE
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z
PERIOD (1974-1991),THESE PROBLEMS WERE WITHOUT DOUBT
EXACERBATED BY THE ETHIOPIA-ERITREA 1998-2000 WAR;

-ETHIOPIA HAS THE THIRD LARGEST NUMBER OF HIV/AIDS POSITIVE
PEOPLE IN THE WORLD - OVER 3 MILLION AFFECTED, 250,000 ARE
CHILDREN UNDER-FIVE AND THERE ARE 1 MILLION HIV/AIDS
ORPHANS;

-THE ADULT LITERACY RATE IS THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT. AN
ESTIMATED TWENTY-FOUR PERCENT OF THE POPULATION HAS ACCESS
TO SAFE DRINKING WATER.

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WHERE WE ARE AT PRESENT
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7. DURING 1999/2000, ETHIOPIA EXPERIENCED PROBABLY THE WORST
DROUGHT SINCE 1983/84. TRADITIONAL COPING MECHANISMS WERE
ERODED; THE LOSS OF FARM ANIMALS IN PARTICULAR WAS VERY
HIGH, AND VIRTUALLY ENSURED THAT RECOVERY FROM THE 1999-2000
DROUGHT WOULD BE LONG AND DIFFICULT. MOREOVER, A RECENT
STUDY OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS IN THE HORN OF
AFRICA HAS REVEALED THAT SERIOUS DROUGHTS OCCURRED ON
AVERAGE ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. DURING THE PAST DECADE,
HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF WIDESPREAD DROUGHTS HAS
ACCELERATED TO ONCE EVERY 2-3 YEARS. GIVEN POOR HARVESTS
THROUGHOUT 2002 IN THE DROUGHT-PRONE PARTS OF ETHIOPIA, DPPC
HAS INCREASED ITS BENEFICIARY NUMBERS TO 7 MILLION FOR
SEPTEMBER AND THIS NUMBER COULD POSSIBLY ESCALATE TO A PEAK
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z
OF 10 TO 14 MILLION IN THE "HUNGRY SEASON" BETWEEN FEBRUARY
AND JUNE, 2003.

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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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8. GFDRE AND DONORS WOULD BE BETTER SERVED TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT ETHIOPIA'S STRUCTURAL FOOD DEFICIT (APPROXIMATELY
700,000 MTS) AND FOCUS ON IMPROVING THE NATIONAL CAPACITY TO
IMPORT FOOD ON TIME TO WHERE IT IS NEEDED. GFDRE NEEDS TO BE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO DEVELOP A TRANSITIONAL FRAMEWORK TO
MEET THE NEEDS OF ITS FOUR TO FIVE MILLION CHRONICALLY FOOD
INSECURE, INVOLVING BOTH ASSET BUILDING AND ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS TARGET POPULATION.


9. RATHER THAN WAITING FOR THE ANNUAL FAO/WFP CROP
ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT TO BE ISSUED IN JANUARY 2003,
THERE SHOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF
SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID. USAID'S DECISION TO
COMMIT AN ADDITIONAL 100,000 TONS OF TITLE II FOOD AID
(ANNOUNCED ON SEPTEMBER 26) IS INDEED TIMELY. FOOD AID FROM
ALL DONORS SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR BOTH FOR
IMMEDIATE DISTRIBUTION AND TO PROTECT THE PIPELINE AT THE

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO8802

PAGE 01 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z
ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 USNW-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00
UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00
DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OES-01 OIC-02 OMB-01 IRM-00
STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 PRM-00 SAS-00
/006W
-------------- EF0B83 301527Z /38
P 301436Z SEP 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6073
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2304
INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY ASMARA
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
USEU BRUSSELS 2831
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 004735

SIPDIS

FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME

AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z
ACTING DIRECTOR PARK
USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL
STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH
USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS
NSC FOR JDWORKEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS
FORSEEN

START OF 2003.

10. DONORS SHOULD ENSURE THAT IMPORT TAXES ON GRAINS
INCLUDING WHEAT FLOUR ARE RATCHETED DOWN TO MINIMAL LEVELS
OR ZERO. THE EXAMPLE OF BANGLADESH IN THE IMMEDIATE
AFTERMATH OF THE 1998 "WORST FLOOD OF THE CENTURY" - IN
ENCOURAGING LARGE-SCALE GRAIN IMPORTS BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR
(THROUGH REDUCTION OF IMPORT SURCHARGES AND NON-INTERFERENCE
WITH PRIVATE SECTOR TRADE) - WENT A LONG WAY IN STABILIZING
FOOD GRAIN MARKETS AND GREATLY AIDED THAT COUNTRY'S FOOD
SECURITY AT A CRITICAL TIME.


11. A POLICY DIALOGUE NEEDS TO ENSUE WITH THE GFDRE ON
POSSIBLE CEREAL PRICE STABILIZATION INTERVENTIONS AND
POLICIES. EMBASSY/USAID SHOULD REVIEW POSSIBLE TITLE I, FOOD
FOR PROGRESS, AND GSM OPTIONS WITH USDA/FAS.


12. ETHIOPIA NEEDS TO PRIORITIZE EFFORTS WITHIN ITS
BOUNDARIES RELATED TO THE MOVEMENT OF FOOD FROM AREAS WITH
SURPLUSES TO THOSE WITH SHORTAGES.
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z


13. THERE IS A COMPELLING NEED TO ADDRESS MORE DIRECTLY THE
PROBLEMS OF UNDER-NUTRITION IN INFANTS AND EXPECTANT
MOTHERS. UNLIKE OTHER COUNTRIES SUCH AS INDIA, ETHIOPIA HAS
NO PROGRAM THAT DELIVERS A COMBINATION OF SERVICES (FOOD
SUPPLEMENTS, MICRO-NUTRIENTS, HEALTH INPUTS, IMMUNIZATIONS,
ETC.) TARGETED TO THE MOST NUTRITIONALLY VULNERABLE GROUPS
IN THE POPULATION - INFANTS AND PREGNANT WOMEN. THIS IS AN
AREA WFP AND ITS UN AGENCIES PARTNERS MIGHT PROFITABLY
EXPLORE.


14. THE LONG-TERM VALUE OF EDUCATION, PARTICULARLY FOR
GIRLS, TO IMPROVED NUTRITION FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS CANNOT
BE OVERSTATED. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE GLOBAL FOOD FOR
EDUCATION INITIATIVE SHOULD BE SYSTEMATICALLY RATCHETED UP.
WFP AND OTHER UN AGENCIES SHOULD AGGRESSIVELY PURSUE
ADDITIONAL PARTNERSHIPS AND COMPLEMENTARY FUNDING TO COVER
NON-FOOD COSTS AND ENSURE HIGH-QUALITY EDUCATION.


15. THE RAPID SPREAD OF HIV/AIDS IS DANGEROUSLY UNDERMINING
DEVELOPMENTAL GAINS THROUGHOUT ETHIOPIA, INCREASINGLY
CAUSING SEVERE LABOR AND ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS THAT DIRECTLY
DISRUPT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. BOTH WFP AND THE UN NEED TO
QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACTIVITIES TO STRENGTHEN
HIV/AIDS INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS, CARE FOR ORPHANS, AND
TRAINING FOR SERVICE PROVIDERS TO BETTER MANAGE THE
EPIDEMIC.


16. SPECIAL EFFORTS (INCLUDING ENGAGING THE INTERNATIONAL
FEDERATION OF THE RED CROSS/GENEVA) NEED TO BE TAKEN TO
REVITALIZE THE ETHIOPIAN RED CROSS WHICH PRESENTLY PLAYS A
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z
MARGINAL ROLE IN EMERGENCY PROGRAM RESPONSE.


17. WFP AND THE UN AGENCIES SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
EMERGENCY FOOD DELIVERIES (WHERE LARGE NUMBERS OF
BENEFICIARIES OFTEN WAIT FOR HOURS TO RECEIVE THEIR RATION)
TO IMPART MOTHER-CHILD CARE HEALTH TRAINING AND NUTRITION
EDUCATION MESSAGES, HIV/AIDS AWARENESS, ETC.


18. FINALLY, WFP AND ITS NON-GOVERNMENTAL PARTNERS SHOULD
IMMEDIATELY INITIATE SUPPLEMENTARY AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING
IN THE WORST AFFECTED AREAS OF WEST HARARGE. #HALL

UNCLASSIFIED

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2002ROME04735 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED